Description
Deploy or innovate? Scale up an existing technology or develop a breakthrough? Build, build, build, or invent a better mousetrap?
The question isn’t which strategy to follow; it’s which strategy to use in which sector. Virtually no one thinks that solar needs brand new tech breakthroughs to scale. Crystalline silicone took the lion’s share of the market years ago from cadmium telluride, amorphous silicon, CIGS and other early solar technologies.
But in carbon removal, batteries, nuclear, and other industries — should we develop new technologies, or scale up a promising few?
In this episode, Shayle talks to his colleague Andy Lubershane about the better mousetrap fallacy in climate tech. Andy is the head of research and a partner at Energy Impact Partners. He argues that, in certain industries, investing in building a better mousetrap is a bad use of capital, and that too many options causes analysis paralysis for would-be customers.
Shayle and Andy cover topics like:
How scaling up technologies – as Chinese manufacturers have scaled up solar and batteries – drives down cost
Why new technologies that aren’t five or 10 times better than an incumbent may fail to beat the cost curve
Whether batteries need breakthroughs, and how Andy thinks about lithium-iron-phosphate, sodium-ion, thermal, and iron-air
Why Andy thinks that the Nuclear Regulatory Commissions should license more new projects than new technologies
The challenge of having more direct air capture technologies than buyers
Recommended resources
Catalyst: The cost of nuclear
Latitude Media: Is large-scale nuclear poised for a comeback?
Catalyst: Seeking the holy grail of batteries
Catalyst: Growing the carbon dioxide removal market
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Shayle and his team at Energy Impact Partners (EIP) review a lot of climate-tech pitches. The best kind of pitch uses a solid techno-economic analysis (TEA) to model how a technology would compete in the real world. In a previous episode, we covered some of the ways startups get TEAs wrong — bad...
Published 11/21/24
Oh, the heat pump — a climate tech darling that still hasn’t hit the big time yet. One challenge for heat pumps is that the customer experience can be difficult, involving a complex installation process, poor installation jobs, and even technicians that don’t want to sell you one.
What’s it going...
Published 11/14/24