with @annieduke, @pmarca, and @smc90
Every organization, whether small or big, early or late stage -- and every individual, whether for themselves or others -- makes countless decisions every day, under conditions of uncertainty. The question is, are we allowing that uncertainty to bubble to the surface, and if so, how much and when? Where does consensus, transparency, forecasting, backcasting, pre-mortems, and heck, even regret, usefully come in?Going beyond the typical discussion of focusing on process vs. outcomes and probabilistic thinking, this episode of the a16z Podcast features Thinking in Bets author Annie Duke -- one of the top poker players in the world (and World Series of Poker champ), former psychology PhD, and founder of national decision education movement How I Decide -- in conversation with Marc Andreessen and Sonal Chokshi. The episode covers everything from the role of narrative -- hagiography or takedown? -- to fighting (or embracing) evolution. How do we go from the bottom of the summit to the top of the summit to the entire landscape... and up, down, and opposite?The first step to understanding what really slows innovation down is understanding good decision-making -- because we have conflicting interests, and are sometimes even competing against future versions of ourselves (or of our organizations). And there's a set of possible futures that result from not making a decision as well. So why feel both pessimistic AND optimistic about all this??
with David Ulevitch (@davidu) and Sonal Chokshi (@smc90)
Since the startup (and founder) journey doesn't go neatly linear from technical to product to sales, tightening one knob (whether engineering or marketing or pricing & packaging) creates slack in one of the other knobs, which demands...
Do you sometimes wish you had been born in a different decade so you could have worked on the fundamental building blocks of modern computing? How fun, challenging, and fulfilling would it have been to work on semiconductors in the 1950s or Unix in the 1960s (both at Bell Labs) or personal...
with Emily Oster (@ProfEmilyOster) and Hanne Tidnam (@omnivorousread)
Are chia seeds actually that good for you? Will Vitamin E keep you healthy? Will breastfeeding your baby make them smarter, or skinnier? There’s maybe no other arena where understanding what the evidence truly tells us is...