Beyond Markets Julius Baer

Recent escalating developments in the Middle East conflict appears to have reduced the likelihood of ceasefire. Wage growth in April was its lowest since June 2021, which should mean less inflation. However, the Cleveland Federal Reserve predicts the upcoming headline April CPI inflation reading will be a disappointingly high 3.5% year/year, the same as March. The Yen fell 5% in April, then bounced 5% since then. There’s been no event, so the best we can say is as long as people can borrow at 1% in Yen and invest at 6% in US Dollars, the currency will go down. But a Big Mac in Japan is 12% cheaper than a Big Mac in China, while Japanese incomes are 6x higher than Chinese ones. It’s not possible for a developed market to have emerging market prices forever.  
This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

In this monthly China update, our experts examine the factors that drove the recent rally in the Hong Kong stock markets and the outlook ahead for the Chinese economy following encouraging PMI trends. They also look ahead to the upcoming Politburo meeting, and weigh the consequences of a stronger and weaker Chinese Yuan.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

Julius Baer Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonzon joins journalist Hanna Wise to take a closer look at Julius Baer's investment strategy. In this third and final episode they look at performance and risk and how this impacts investors.  
Yves shares how we analyze and assess performance, how to avoid "bad" performance and what "healthy" performance looks like, especially in a volatile market. He also talks about the risks involved with performance, how we mitigate those risks, and how he measures his success as a CIO.

Asian currencies have been roiled by an unexpectedly stronger US Dollar this year, but we do not equate this to the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. Most Asian countries are better positioned than before to weather currency volatility and temporary higher oil prices, due to stronger fundamentals and more flexible exchange rates. However, the effect of a weaker Renminbi could last longer as economic growth slows and given China is the biggest trading partner for most countries in Asia and Australia except India. We stay away from local rates except Singapore Dollar due to the deep local investor base and keep our call for Asian Investment Grade USD bonds due to strong technicals.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The oil market has remained surprisingly calm despite the recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. What are the dynamics at play here? And looking ahead, how might the oil and gas industry evolve as we head into a new era of energy transition and electric vehicles?

In this episode, Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research speaks to Pearlyn Wong, Investment Content and Campaigns Asia, on his latest insights on the oil market.

As gold prices hit record highs, we are joined in the studio by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, to discuss the causes and consequences of the metal’s remarkable rally.