OSINT with ShadowDragon & Digital Tools For Modern Investigations Daniel Clemens from ShadowDragon, LLC

Hosts:


Joe Stradinger, EdgeTheory CEO
Daniel Clemens, ShadowDragon CEO
Elliott Anderson, ShadowDragon CTO
David Cook, Director – National Security


Daniel and David traveled to University of Mississippi last month to the inaugural National Center for Narrative Intelligence (NCNI) Summit hosted by EdgeTheory. The guys talk about the Summit, Joe’s path to becoming EdgeTheory’s founder and CEO, and the importance of storytelling and narratives in a dynamic world.


This time around, we spoke about Narrative Intelligence and how OSINT is similar in finding sources but can sometimes produce different products. Today, the amount of publicly available information (PAI) is expanding every day, which gives people, companies, and governments more information to synthesize and investigate than ever before. ‘Chatter’ online can grow and form narratives at incredible speed and resonance, creating often-times outsized impacts in society, markets, elections, and so much more.


Listen in as Daniel queues in on EdgeTheory’s “Intercontinental Ballistic Narratives,” or ICBNs, to ask who is the greatest manipulator of narratives? Joe breaks down the different ways EdgeTheory sees between Russia, China and Iran utilizing ICBNs to subvert Western Nations. As geographic borders fade in today’s online struggle, adversaries ‘spoof’ or manipulate where the origin of their cognitive attacks on populations come from, making it more difficult to quantify risk.


Listen for more insight on:


• Advanced Persistent Manipulators (APMs)
• Joe’s take on AI (hint: “AI is a math trick, it’s a very good math trick, but it’s a math trick“)
• Utilizing OSINT and Narrative Intelligence to gain decision advantage
• Navigating a ‘post-truth world’


Visit EdgeTheory’s website to learn more: https://edgetheory.com/
Learn more about the National Center for Narrative Intelligence here: https://ncni.us/


This podcast is available in video and audio versions at your favorite podcast outlet, popular video platforms, and the ShadowDragon website. Subscribe to the podcast to stay up to date on the latest.


Thank you for listening.
Special Guest: Joe Stradinger.

About this Episode


Hosts:
Daniel Clemens, ShadowDragon CEO
Elliott Anderson, ShadowDragon CTO
Nico Dekens, ShadowDragon Director of Intelligence and Innovation Collection (aka Dutch_OSINTguy)
David Cook, ShadowDragon Director of National Security


In this podcast episode, the hosts and guests delve into various topics, from the importance of rest and mindfulness to the challenges of investigative work and the impact of technology on attention spans. Through personal anecdotes and professional experiences, they highlight the need for patience, methodical workflow, and critical thinking in investigative processes, emphasizing the value of asking the right questions rather than seeking immediate answers. They also discuss the evolving nature of technology and its effects on human cognition, cautioning against the pitfalls of constant stimulation and advocating for a balance between productivity and mental well-being. Furthermore, they draw parallels between investigative work and historical societal shifts, reflecting on the tension between industrialism and agrarian workflows and the implications for modern-day practices. Ultimately, the episode offers valuable insights into navigating the complexities of investigative work in an increasingly fast-paced and technology-driven world, emphasizing the importance of rest, reflection, and methodical inquiry.

About this Episode


Hosts:
Daniel Clemens, ShadowDragon CEO
Elliott Anderson, ShadowDragon CTO
Nico Dekens, ShadowDragon Director of Intelligence and Innovation Collection (aka Dutch_OSINTguy)
David Cook, ShadowDragon Director of National Security


In our last podcast of 2023, the ShadowDragon crew talked about the importance of veterans’ service, disinformation, and gave some of our best predictions for 2024.


One of ShadowDragon’s newest employees, David Cook, talks about running a non-profit focused on Special Operations Forces (SOF) advocacy:


• The Special Operations Association of America (SOAA.org) is a veteran service organization that advocates for the past, present and future SOF community.
• David first found SOAA during the Afghanistan withdrawal and has been involved ever since.
• SOAA, Congress, and several other organizations’ use of open-source information during the withdrawal to help Americans and our Afghan allies.
• Bringing service to veterans everywhere we go – ShadowDragon included.
• Launching a SkillBridge partnership to assist active-duty service members transitioning to the civilian world.
• OSINT use in the Afghanistan withdrawal
• Injection of false information into crisis situations and how to triage fact from fiction.


Automation in OSINT, according to Nico, the Dutch OSINT Guy:


• OSINT is an arduous process – automation can be a powerful tool in highlighting what’s important.
• Utilizing ChatGPT to ‘stress-test’ narratives and large amounts of content to narrow down actor motives.
• Automated image searches are best used in open-source investigations where the margin for human error is high.
• Automation allows investigators and analysts to scale with the amount and volume of information and data that is ubiquitous today.


Dependency of Large-Language Models (LLMs), and other tech:


• Utilizing LLMs for analysis must be used with caution – there are AI ‘hallucinations’ that return false information.
• Remember: the models are trained using data from humans, so it still has a margin of error.
• Investigators and analysts should be aware of AI ‘hallucinations’ within their OSINT tools they use.
• Small cognitive conditioning happens with the dependency of technology and devices – we’re in for an interesting year with external catalysts (election, emerging LLMs/deepfake tech, etc.).


“2024 is gonna be…crazy”, Daniel Clemens, CEO of ShadowDragon


• People are not going to be able to trust what hear and see at the end of 2024 due to deepfake technology advances, segregation in the digital world manifesting itself in the physical world.
• Regulation for ‘disinformation’ will not go anywhere, but there will be broad discussion and public discourse surrounding automated information – videos, audio recordings, and images.
• Disinformation needs to be re-branded and specifically defined in contrast to foreign malign influence operations.


Elliott’s OSINT recommendations:


• The popularity of OSINT will spurn regulatory action and we’ll see laws made and legal decisions on OSINT.


Daniel’s OSINT recommendations:


• The value of discernment will be ‘gold’ and being able to deconstruct what information is in front of them will need to be developed and honed.
• The ‘AI’ buzzword in OSINT will start to collapse – but some capabilities will get better because of automation, especially Geo-Spatial Intelligence (GEOINT), geo-political use-cases, and supply chain risk management.


David’s OSINT recommendations:


• More people will find they’ve been utilizing open-source information and creating subsequent intelligence than previously thought, re-valuing OSINT as a sector to the upside, broadening and expanding what OSINT is.
• OSINT as an intelligence discipline will take share from GEOINT and Signals Intelligence (SIGINT).
• AI and automation will create an

About this Episode


Hosts:
Daniel Clemens, ShadowDragon CEO
Elliott Anderson, ShadowDragon CTO
Nico Dekens, ShadowDragon Director of Intelligence and Innovation Collection (aka Dutch_OSINTguy)


This time around the guys get together and talk about breaking down systems, especially as it relates to online data. You might be surprised to discover how social media algorithms are self-radicalizing people, computer experts are not what they used to be, and artificial intelligence could be headed down a destructive path.


They visit the past with a look at what open source intelligence was like ten years ago and glimpse what the future might look like with artificial intelligence and Apple Vision Pro goggles. It is all here as three old school open source intelligence investigators once again look at the world through the perspective of analytical intelligence.


Reasons we are seeing a recent increase in hacker and breach data activity, likely due to:
• School summer break gives kids more free time
• Ukraine war personnel returning to computers from battle lines
• Hacker message boards feuding and hacking each other


Here is what we are seeing when we interview computer job candidates:
• Many claim to be an “expert of experts” without the underlying basic knowledge
• These days people rarely build computers from parts – Apple security may be part of that
• Programmers throw around the term API and then cannot explain an API


Nico gives us a glimpse of the evolution of his OSINT work:
• Used to manually log into various accounts to make them look active daily
• Over time the rise of hundreds of viable platforms required scaling account activity
• Now finds that AI and ML results are outdated, biased, or untrue and does not use them for OSINT


The guys discuss modern day pros and cons of OSINT data collection:
• Elliott finds people trust their niche communities and reveal more in those platforms
• Content is moving from text to photos, moving images, and multiple languages, creating challenges
• Analysts need to understand various AI programming languages and methodologies to vet the assumptions that produced the results
• OSINT data collection processed through artificial intelligence is being questioned and invalidated in courts


Social media continues to influence society in unchecked ways:
• Social media algorithms have become quicker and more comprehensive in showing content that feeds your interests
• People are essentially becoming self-radicalized online through constant reinforcement of their beliefs
• Terrorist groups are getting better at planting seeds pushed by algorithms


The potential for chaos and societal disruption is increasing:
• Overloading systems and organizations are old concepts being applied in new ways through technology
• Immigration policies need to address feelings of displacement, accelerated by slow processes and online radicalization
• The creation of fake AI-generated content has the potential to push unstable people into violent action


The guys continue the in-depth discussion, further exploring challenges and scenarios brought on by technology, especially that crossing into the world of OSINT.


This podcast is available in video and audio versions at your favorite podcast outlet, popular video platforms, and the ShadowDragon website. Subscribe to the podcast to stay up to date on the latest.


Thank you for listening.

About this Episode


Hosts: Daniel Clemens, ShadowDragon CEO
Nico Dekens (aka Dutch_OSINTguy), ShadowDragon Director of Intelligence and Collection


This time it’s a one-on-one conversation as Daniel and Nico cover the latest news in and outside the OSINT world. Their intel perspective on the news is fascinating, but the discussions between the headlines make this episode even more compelling.


Listen in as the guys discuss the increasing importance of incident response, crisis management, and operational security, while throwing in advice on protesting, voting, personal security awareness, and more that will add clarity in an ever-changing digital world.


Silicon Valley Bank
• Learn what went wrong in 60 seconds
• Keyword monitoring detected early what other banks were at risk (i.e., Credit Suisse)
• Disruptors started pushing false messages about US and EU bank failures
• Getting messages, true or false, out to one or two key influencers can topple a company quickly
• OSINT data could help drive aggressive investment strategies


Extinction Rebellion (XR)
• Protest group was infiltrated by Dutch law enforcement
• Group feels abused being investigated by the same technique used on terrorists
• Amnesty International calls the working method of the police and judiciary "particularly problematic"
• Police have an obligation to maintain public order and prevent civil unrest


Update: Stabbing Incidents and Alerts in Europe
• There have been more stabbing incidents and lone wolf attacks since we discussed the rising trend in a recent episode
• U.S. defense employee was stabbed in the United Kingdom near her GCHQ office
• Intel agencies issued alerts for increased risk to Vienna prayer houses from Islamic State jihadis
• Brussels metro stations are on high alert; U.S. embassy issued an alert for stabbing threat


Terrorist Threat Response
• Islamic terrorists may go silent for a while, but they are playing a long game and will return
• Include native foreign language and dialects for OSINT search queries
• Individuals need to increase situational awareness and safety protocols


Breached.vc Hacker Forum Owner Arrested
• Young man arrested and labeled “kingpin” of hacker info sharing stie
• Suspect Conor Brian Fitzpatrick of Peekskill, NY looks like every hacker kid of the last 25 years
• Profile does not fit old school hardcore criminal type
• Hacker surprisingly made basic mistakes with operational security (opsec)
• Unless law enforcement has a replacement in place, the forum will re-emerge elsewhere


Donald Trump Announced Pending Arrest
• More social media responses are from the left than the right
• Messages are so extreme there is an indication they may be generated by bots
• People on the right are not responding or mobilizing as they did with January 6th events
• The realistic deep fake photos have had a limited effectiveness


Deep Fake Tools Are Getting Better
• The quality of fakes is getting so good they are making into mainstream media
• Nico likes tools from Open AI, Midjourney, and HuggingFace.co
• With text to image get very specific with visual details, but also perspective, camera angle, lens, etc.
• People are creating AI-generated text and visual content without proper attribution


Join us again for more fun discussions about social media, open source intelligence, law enforcement, media manipulation, and the world at large. Look for upcoming guest appearances by other intelligence professionals.


This podcast is available in video and audio versions at your favorite podcast outlet, popular video platforms, and the ShadowDragon website. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast.


Thank you for listening.