I have wanted to do this interview for a long time. On this episode, I am thrilled to have Annie Duke, former professional poker player and author of the new book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts. Annie has a very interesting background that makes her uniquely qualified to speak about high-level decision making. As an author, speaker, world-class poker player, and academic in the fields of psychology and cognitive theory, Annie understands the intersection of luck, skill, and making decisions in uncertain, chaotic environments better than most people on the planet. This is a whirlwind of an episode, and we cover all kinds of fascinating topics, including: The strange circumstances that shifted Annie’s path from finishing a Ph.D. in linguistics to becoming a professional poker player What it was like to be a female poker player in a predominantly male sport (especially before poker had become socially acceptable) What drew Annie into such a high stakes, time-pressured environment and why she felt like poker was the perfect fit for her How her graduate work in psychology informed the way she approached the game of poker — and helped her rack up wins How she finds the signal in a very noisy stream of feedback The big mistakes Annie noticed other players making that were stalling their progress in the game but allowed her to make giant leaps forward The role that mental models played in her learning process (and which models Annie liked to lean on the most in a high stakes game) The power of surrounding yourself with people that can help you expand your circle of competence — and how that made all the difference in Annie’s development as a player Confirmatory and exploratory thought, and how one helps us to be “accurate” and one helps us to be “right.” The secret pact you should be making with the people who are closest to you And so much more. This episode is just under two hours long, but there’s no fat in it. Annie delivers a masterclass in making the smartest decisions we can, even when our hubris insists otherwise. Do some finger stretches before hitting play, because you’re going to be taking some serious notes. Please enjoy the interview! *** For comprehensive show notes on this episode, including a full edited transcript, go to https://fs.blog/podcast/ Upgrade your thinking with the free FS weekly email digest called "brain food." Don't miss out, sign up at https://fs.blog/newsletter/ You do want to get smarter, don't you? Follow https://twitter.com/farnamstreet for mind-expanding content.  *** This episode is brought to you by HealthIQ: Do you enjoy running, swimming, biking, lifting weights, or any other physical activity that keeps you fit and active? Is a healthy lifestyle something that’s important to you? Then listen up, this is for you. You’re definitely paying too much for your life insurance. Health IQ is an insurance company that helps health-conscious people like you get lower rates on their life insurance. Like saving money on your car insurance for being a good driver, Health IQ saves you money on your life insurance for living a health-conscious lifestyle. In fact, over half of HealthIQ customers qualify for savings of up to 33% on their life insurance. That’s big. To see how much they can save you, get a free quote.