NAB Morning Call Phil Dobbie

Friday 18th May 2024
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NVIDIA is now the third biggest listing in the US, with a market cap of 2.3 trillion dollars. Their earning results this week were an upside surprise for revenue, margins and forward guidance. So how far has the US tech growth story got to go? Phil talks to NABTrade’s Gemma Dale about the rise and rise of tech. Is it pulling investment away form Australian domestic stocks? They cite some interesting research from NAB that demonstrates how super funds have been selling US shares because the growth has been too strong and they need to rebalance their portfolios. Retail investors, of course, aren’t limited in the same way, so should they hold on for the ride? And what part does Australia play in the tech and environment megatrends? Can we expect some high growth companies as well?

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Thursday 23rd May 2024
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Stronger than expected PMIs in the US – for manufacturing and services – have pushed bond yields higher. Equities, which started the session strong on the back of the NVIDIA earnings, have also fallen sharply today as pricing for rate cuts by the Fed gets pushed back further. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the data for the US does need to continue to soften for the Fed to deliver on cuts, and these numbers went against that trend. In Europe the latest ECB wages data also challenged expectations for moves beyond the already signalled June cut. 

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Thursday 23rd May 2024
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The UK Prime Minister stood out I the pouring rain to announce a July 4 election for the UK, months ahead of expectations. Perhaps he doesn’t think the economy will improve so he might as well go sooner. It comes on the same day as the latest UK CPI numbers, which didn’t fall as far as expected. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether this could all push rate cuts out further. There’s a worry in some quarters that the Fed could be in the same boat, with FOMC minutes just out. In NZ Adrian Orr said the RBNZ even considered a rate hike for yesterday’s meeting. Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s latest earnings showed 

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Wednesday 22nd May 2024
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Equities were quite contained a day out from the NVIDIA earnings, although the S&P did hit another all time high. Copper prices continue to rise from its new high on Monday. Phil asks Ray what’s driving this – real factors or a speculative bubble? European wages data came in high, so much so that you’d be wondering why the ECB is so committed to a June rate cut. Canada saw inflation growth slow, and with the RBNZ tonight Phil asks Ray for his take on the order of bank cuts.

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Tuesday 21st May 2024
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There’s an absence of solid data. Maybe that’s why equity markets have reverted to AI-hype, ahead of NVIDIA earnings later in the week. There’s also been significant gains in the price of silver, gold and copper. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about why precious metals are doing so well. None of this distracts from the commentary from central banks, with more from the UK and US tonight, as well as the minutes of the last RBA meeting locally. And the first fo the week’s significant CPI prints – first off, Canada.

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Monday 20th May 2024
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It’s a quiet start today after a week that finished slowly. Skye Masters discusses how bond yields have been slowly rising, unwinding the moves after the surprise CPI growth earlier in the month. Central banks still seem to be doing their best to warn markets not to expect rate cuts too soon. Isabel Schnabel from the ECB did just that on Friday, warning that, although a June cut was appropriate, a ‘cautious approach is needed beyond that’. If Friday was quiet, expect more of the same today, although data picks up later in the week, including CPI for UK, Canada and Japan, and the latest RBNZ meeting, plus NVIDIA earnings.

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