A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time it’s happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau? On this episode of The Numbers, we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston’s PCs in doubt, and who...

The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row? We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia’s election and Ontario’s apparently upcoming election. Finally, we chat about new polling from...

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it. We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz! Want even more...

The Sask. Party held on in Saskatchewan in what turned out to be a close election, but the polls nevertheless missed the mark by a wide margin. We break down the results. We also take a look at the final count in British Columbia and the snap election call in Nova Scotia, where Tim Houston is hoping to avoid an incumbent slump. Then, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether the Liberals have any good alternatives for leader. Plus, the return of The Quiz! If you aren't already a member...

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do? We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday’s vote, and another poll showing...

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day. We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa. Apologies for the poor audio from...

This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault. In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could...

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to provincial politics? We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday’s...

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign. In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then,...

It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise. We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers. To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week,...

What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan. In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests Éric with a Prairie-themed Quiz. To join the Discord...

A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive. (Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.) We also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that...

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario. In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in...

As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer your questions, including: Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter?Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"?Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time?Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more! This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode next...

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings. For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to...

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for Éric in the Quiz. To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday,...

This week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection in Newfoundland and Labrador and the speculation of a snap election call in Ontario, and how those might be tied to Justin Trudeau's leadership. Plus, we have new numbers out of B.C. and a question from the mailbag on the federal byelections. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz on electoral landslides. To join the Discord page for The...

This week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are voting. We then delve into some provincial polling out of British Columbia and Quebec, and check-in on the Alberta NDP leadership race. In the mailbag, we chat about merger talks in B.C. and we close with a birthday-themed Quiz. To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment...

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss some BIG numbers that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are putting up in both national polls and first-quarter fundraising. What does this mean for Justin Trudeau? Plus, we chat about an odd poll out of British Columbia ahead of that province's fall election. In our mailbag, we answer a question on Poilievre and the PPC vote, and Philippe takes no pity on a hobbled Éric in this week's edition of The Quiz. To join the Discord page for The...

This week, we assess the pros and the cons of an election for the New Democrats as Jagmeet Singh mulls whether or not to support the Liberal budget. We also chat about an upset PC victory in a Newfoundland and Labrador byelection as well as another poll showing the B.C. Conservatives on the move. We answer listener questions, including whether there is a Joe Manchin-style riding in the House of Commons, and Philippe is put to the test with a Quiz about past busy electoral calendars. To join...

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether or not the gap is narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals. We also delve into the question of whether Chinese interference in the 2021 election cost Erin O'Toole seats and his job. Plus, two byelections have been called in Ontario. What to make of the races in Milton and Lambton–Kent–Middlesex? In our mailbag, we answer questions on how upcoming provincial elections could impact the next federal election...

This week, Philippe and Éric chat about some of the latest federal numbers and how a trio of provincial Liberal leaders have come out against the carbon tax, putting Justin Trudeau in a bind. We also discuss what the political future of Liberal MP Anthony Housefather could mean for his riding on the island of Montreal. Plus, we have provincial polling out of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec, we answer some mailbag questions and Philippe puts Éric to the test with The...

If the proof of the pudding is in the eating, is the proof of the polls in Durham? We break down the results of this week's federal byelection as well as some new national polls. We then answer listener questions about the NDP's performance, the possibility of having an interim PM forced onto the hustings, and whether the Conservatives have the biggest tent. Then, Philippe tests Éric's knowledge of a pivotal Ontario election. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to...

A new poll shows the NDP within spitting distance (yes, Philippe, that's a real thing) of the Liberals in the race for second place. What to make of it — and some recent controversies that are dogging the Liberals? We also discuss new poll numbers showing the Ontario Liberals well ahead of the NDP for runner-up status behind Doug Ford, as well as a survey on the race to become the leader of the opposition Alberta New Democrats. We answer questions on federal fundraising, the split on the...