Top of Mind HousingWire

Welcome to How’s the Market, our weekly look at what’s happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research.
If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch.
Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research
A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.

Welcome to How’s the Market, our weekly look at what’s happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research.
If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch.
Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research
A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.

Welcome to How’s the Market, our weekly look at what’s happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research.
If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch.
Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research
A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Jonah Coste from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to talk about the impact of the mortgage rate “lock-in” effect: where homeowners with low mortgage rates are unwilling to sell and purchase another home at much higher rates. Jonah shares the findings from FHFA’s recent study on this phenomenon - including the fact that for every percentage point that mortgage rates exceed the origination interest rate, the probability of sale is decreased by 18.1% - and details how this impacts home prices, affordability, and mobility. He also gives his take on whether the lock-in effect has already peaked, and how quickly it may recede from here.
About Jonah Coste
Jonah Coste conducts research on housing and mortgage markets at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and is especially interested in topics related to household decision-making and housing supply. He also has experience working on consumer finance topics at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from George Washington University and his B.S. in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University.
Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn: 

What the mortgage rate lock-in effect is, how it’s measured, and why it’s important

Key findings from the FHFA report, including how the lock-in effect decreases home sales and leads to higher prices

The impact of the lock-in effect on mobility, choice, and affordability

How California’s Prop 13 and other lock-in mechanisms prevent home sales

How low rates created $3 trillion of net benefit to homeowners, and why we only get that benefit if we stay in our homes

Whether the lock-in effect has already peaked, and how quickly it recedes from here

Reasons why 2024 and 2025 may see expanding sales rates despite this lock-in effect

Some reasons to be optimistic about affordability in the coming years


Resources mentioned in this episode:

Connect with Jonah on LinkedIn

Federal Housing Finance Agency

Working Paper 24-03: The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates

Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn

Altos Research


Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research
A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.
Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:

Altos on Twitter

Mike on Twitter


About Altos Research
The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research.
Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels.
Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business.

Welcome to How’s the Market, our weekly look at what’s happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research.
If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch.
Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research
A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.

Welcome to How’s the Market, our weekly look at what’s happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research.
If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch.
Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research
A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.