Making good predictions is tough. We think we know more than we do and let emotions and biases creep in. How do some forecasters beat the odds? Our hosts, Nico and Sam, chat about the book "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver exploring why predictions fail and uncovering practical insights. A little statistical training can go a long way! We geek out on Bayes' Theorem, discuss why poker develops useful reasoning skills, and tackle investing decisions using probabilities. Improving predictions requires tracking your results and having the courage to map what you don't know. We dissect Signal versus noise in forecasting explained and Understanding data prediction with Nate Silver, offering an analytical perspective on how to distinguish meaningful patterns from mere noise. If you want to enhance your critical thinking abilities and decision-making under uncertainty, tune in! We promise no boring academic lectures - just practical tips served with our signature blend of intellectual curiosity and humor. - - - Contact the hosts Wiser pod website Nico's projects Being a VC - Bitkraft.vcFuture of Gaming podcast - Website - YouTube Sam's projects Writing - Explosive thinkingPodcast - Growth mindset podcast - - - Chapters 00:00 The Signal and The Noise 02:25 Moneyball - Importance of prediction 05:50 Poker as a Prediction Game 07:44 Base Theorem 11:57 Using poker to illustrate Bayes' theorem 15:53 Frequent feedback improves forecast skill 21:14 Overfitting - The problem of limited data and latching onto false patterns 23:23 Europe's healthcare system vs. USA 27:31 Improving prediction framework and minimising mistakes 29:15 Nico's company 33:10 Ratings & Reflection 35:16 Send off Topics Nate Silver prediction analysis book review Practical insights from The Signal and the Noise Why predictions fail book summary podcast Signal versus noise in forecasting explained Understanding data prediction with Nate Silver Book podcast on successful forecasting methods The Signal and the Noise summary insights Learning predictive accuracy from Nate Silver Exploring statistical forecasts in modern times Book review on data-driven predictions podcast Analyzing The Signal and the Noise themes Nate Silver’s approach to accurate predictions Practical lessons from prediction failures and successes Book summary podcast on statistical significance Why some predictions succeed: Nate Silver's insights Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.