Serious probability flaw in Dilsher’s 29 June episode
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“To be considered towards a game of skill on the skill-luck spectrum, Dilsher says that the probability of someone winning 90% of games is very less. Hence, it is a game of skill!
Well, there isn’t just one user of the app. Given, n users (let’s say 1 lakh), you need to multiple the user level probability with entire sample to get the number of users.
Even if all 1 lakh users were just betting on 10 coin tosses (ie 10 games), 1% will win 90% of the games. (10/1024)
That is 1000 users.
You can easily handpick these 1000 users retrospectively and say “probability” of this happening in a game of luck is unlikely. This is flawed reasoning.”
Yogesh Singla YS via Apple Podcasts ·
India ·
07/13/24
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