Efficient Estimation of Learning Models - Slides - 2nd HEC Finance and Statistics Conference 2010 - HEC Paris
Description
Efficient Estimation of Learning Models - VERONIKA CZELLAR (with Laurent Calvet). This paper develops a toolkit of inference and forecasting methods for a large class of nonlinear incomplete-information models. The techniques readily apply to representative agent economies in which the state of fundamentals is latent and follows a Markov chain. Three main tools are introduced. First, we provide a convenient and efficient estimation method based on indirect inference (Gourieroux, Monfort and Renault 1993 - Smith 1993). Second, we develop a particle filter to recursively estimate the joint distribution of fundamentals and the agent's belief about fundamentals, and provide forecasts. Third, we propose a particle filter-based test of a moment condition involving the hidden state, which holds in a variety of settings - in the context of learning models, this method can be used to assess every period the rationality of agent beliefs about fundamentals. The good empirical performance of these methods is demonstrated on the multifrequency asset pricing model of Calvet and Fisher (2007) applied to a long series of daily aggregate equity excess returns. The 2nd HEC Finance and Statistics Conference was held in Paris on October 8, 2010. It was organized by Laurent Calvet and Veronika Czellar, HEC Paris. The conference program is available at http://www.hec.fr/financeandstatistics2010.
ANDREW SIEGEL, University of Washington, discusses Laurent Calvet, Adlai J. Fisher and Liuren Wu's paper - Dimension-Invariant Dynamic Term Structures - during the 2nd Finance and Statistics Conference. The 2nd HEC Finance and Statistics Conference was held in Paris on October 8, 2010. It was...
Published 02/13/10
ANDREW SIEGEL, University of Washington, discusses Laurent Calvet, Adlai J. Fisher and Liuren Wu's paper - Dimension-Invariant Dynamic Term Structures - during the 2nd Finance and Statistics Conference. The 2nd HEC Finance and Statistics Conference was held in Paris on October 8, 2010. It was...
Published 02/12/10
Dimension-Invariant Dynamic Term Structures - LAURENT CALVET, HEC Paris, presents his paper (coauthored with Adlai J. Fisher and Liuren Wu). We develop a class of dynamic term structure models that accommodates arbitrarily many interest-rate factors with very few parameters. The model builds on a...
Published 02/11/10