With:  Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360 Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist  Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 05 April 2022)   With less than a week to go until the first round of the election on Sunday 10 April, we think the chances of a surprise outcome have risen.   Opinion polls continue to point to the first round resulting in a repeat of the 2017 face-off between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.   But the gap between Macron and Le Pen in opinion polls has narrowed, voter turnout is expected to be low and there is a high number of undecided voters.   A Macron re-election remains the most likely outcome, in our view, but our degree of conviction in this outcome has fallen in recent weeks.   We look at market implications and risk premium   For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf