Hayley Clatterbuck will summarize key findings from Rethink Priorities' ""Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation"" (CURVE) project, which evaluated the cost-effectiveness of existential risk mitigation projects under both standard expected utility maximization and risk aversion. Persistence of effect and future growth trajectory are the strongest contributors to expected utility. Different risk models often deliver different recommendations about which existential risk projects to pursue, but there are some actions for which these models agree. Clatterbuck will use these findings to draw lessons for cause prioritization within the global catastrophic risk space.