As the war enters its second winter and third year, are we now facing the prospect of battles lasting until at least 2025? The prospect of an immediate decisive military breakthrough for Ukraine has disappeared. Kyiv’s offensive – launched in the summer – has largely subsided, with Ukraine’s troops exhausted from over six months of intense fighting. At the same time, Ukraine’s key international support pillars are under pressure. Depleted Western armouries will have far less to provide to...

As India is quickly developing as a major power, Global Security Briefing considers its prospects as a partner for the UK in the context of the Indo-Pacific ‘Tilt’ The world has many emerging powers, but India is probably the one with the greatest potential to shift the balance in the Indo-Pacific and, perhaps, the world over coming generations. Following independence, India forged a ‘non-aligned’ path through the Cold War. For most of its history, its main security threat came from...

With David Cameron's return to government, this episode of the Global Security Briefing analyses the UK's approach to China over the past decade. The UK’s 2023 Integrated Review Refresh declares China a ‘an epoch-defining systemic challenge’. This is a far cry from the tone of the earlier UK policy from 2015, when the then-Cameron government referred to the bilateral relationship with Beijing as entering a ‘golden era’. This apparent discrepancy has prompted calls for greater coherence in...

Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October has opened a new chapter in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. We examine how the war is set to reshape the Middle East for years to come. In a highly complex attack that included a missile barrage and an invasion of southern Israel, Hamas killed 1,400 people and took over 200 people hostage – mostly Israelis, but also a significant number of foreign nationals. Israel has responded with overwhelming military force in the Gaza Strip, vowing to destroy...

This episode explores the future of UK–EU relations in the light of current challenges. In the spring of 2021, the Integrated Review signalled the UK's future approach to European security post-Brexit, with an ambitious agenda for 'Global Britain'. Over two years on, there is a palpable sense that the UK may have turned a corner in its relations with the EU, with the ‘Windsor Framework’ agreement in early 2023 ending the most bitter Brexit dispute. Perhaps for the first time since the 2016...

Over a year and a half after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and with both sides incurring significant losses, is the conflict coming to a standstill? In February 2022, Moscow aimed to seize Ukraine quickly. But 20 months later, the war grinds on inconclusively, with untold human suffering. Both sides are looking to restock, rearm and mobilise new troops. Ukraine is now coming up against serious constraints on what more can be provided from Western stocks, and there is growing political unease...

As we explore the evolving nature of South Korean foreign and security policies, we ask whether the country is emerging as a more significant international actor. South Korea’s foreign and security policies have traditionally been defined by regional interests and, above all, the unresolved conflict with North Korea. However, in recent years, South Korea has expanded its foreign policy horizons. In 2022, it adopted its own Indo-Pacific Strategy. Seoul has also backed sanctions against Russia...

In the final part of our examination of challenges to the Western liberal order, we take a look at the likely future shape of global security. Previously on GSB, we asked Professor Stephen Walt whether an alternative international order, challenging the existing one, is emerging. We then had discussions with country experts sharing their analysis of the main challenges to the West across various parts of the world, and whether these regions will play significant roles in shaping the future...

In this episode , we turn to three key regions shaping the discussion around whether a counter-West order is emerging. So far in our summer series, we’ve explored whether an alternative international order is challenging the global governance system established after the Second World War, and what the implications are for global security. Africa, Latin America and the Middle East hold unique viewpoints, and while each region has distinct historical, economic and political dynamics, they...

In the second episode of our four-part summer series, we explore the role that Russia, China and Iran play in countering the Western-led international order. Russia, China and Iran have become increasingly confrontational in both rhetoric and actions, advocating for alternative frameworks and principles that reflect and advance their own geopolitical interests. They argue that we are witnessing a shift towards a multipolar world where power is more evenly distributed, and that this is the...

The first in a four-part summer series, this episode addresses the apparent weakening of the liberal international order established after the Second World War and the rise of a counter-West axis. Since 1945, the liberal international order has been anchored by Western powers – centrally the US – promoting the principles of democracy, human rights, free trade and multilateralism. This order has played a central role in shaping global governance structures, including institutions like the UN,...

As NATO leaders and experts gather for the Vilnius Summit, we consider the rapid changes to Europe’s security environment. Russia’s war against Ukraine has undoubtedly transformed European security forever, but these developments are taking place in the context of wider regional shifts. While NATO and the EU are being strengthened, the continent is also seeing growing sub-regional security and defence cooperation, minilateralism and efforts at strategic autonomy. Host Neil Melvin is joined...

With the Vilnius NATO summit fast approaching, we consider what arrangements need to be made to secure Ukraine’s sovereignty. The current focus of the international community is on sustaining and developing Ukraine’s warfighting capabilities to defend its territory and repel the Russian aggression. But ahead of the July NATO summit in Vilnius, attention is also turning to the task of ensuring Ukraine’s longer-term security, with pressure growing to grant Ukraine new security guarantees or...

Russia’s war in Ukraine has brought into focus the enduring links between Moscow and Beijing. How will this tandem shape the future of global competition? Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022, where they released a joint statement proclaiming their ‘no limits’ partnership. Three weeks later, Russia invaded Ukraine. Beijing has subsequently walked a careful and rather ambiguous line over the conflict,...

As Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emerges as the winner of Turkey’s presidential elections, we examine what this means for the country, the region and the world. Erdoğan’s victory hardly came as a surprise. He had almost won in the first round, gaining 49.51% of the vote compared to 44.8% for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the 74-year-old retired civil servant leading the Republican People’s Party in alliance with other opposition movements. But ahead of the vote, there had been a real sense that Erdoğan faced a...

As the contours of a new Saudi Arabia emerge under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, we analyse domestic and foreign policy reforms in a changing Kingdom. Saudi Arabia is arguably the most powerful Arab country, and one of the key regional powers in the Middle East today. But Saudi Arabia’s importance goes far beyond the region. Its territory includes the two holiest sites in Islam – Mecca and Medina – giving the Kingdom a special global status. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is the world’s most...

As geopolitical competition intensifies, we look at the future trajectory of the UK–Africa relationship. For over two decades, international conversations about Africa were dominated by Western aid and preoccupations with the Global War on Terrorism. But recently, with great and middle powers visibly competing for influence across Africa, a new layer of complexity has been added to relations. For countries such as the UK and France, knowing how and when to engage can be a challenge: both...

In early April, Finland became the newest member of NATO, significantly changing the Alliance’s northern flank, as well as deeply impacting Nordic and Baltic security in the face of the war in Ukraine. The war has rapidly altered Finnish security policy. Almost immediately after the invasion, public support for NATO membership leaped from a steady 25% in favour to around 75%. On 18 May 2022, Finland and Sweden simultaneously submitted their official letters of application, and NATO heads of...

Originally published 6 April 2023. After over two years, the Bridging the Oceans podcast is coming to an end. Bridging the Oceans, hosted by Veerle Nouwens, was the first podcast dedicated specifically to the defence and security of the Indo-Pacific. It explored what the Indo-Pacific is, where its limits lay, and what the fast-evolving defence and security issues were in this dynamic part of the world. Together with a diverse range of experts, the podcast analysed today’s top...

Launched against the backdrop of a deteriorating security environment in the Indo-Pacific, will AUKUS prove an effective counterbalance to Chinese dominance in the region? AUKUS, the tripartite deal between the US, the UK and Australia, caused considerable surprise and French consternation when it was announced in 2021. It involves acquiring a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, forecast to cost up to $368 billion between now and the mid-2050s, as well as aiming to boost...

This episode focuses on how global energy trends have shaped the geopolitics of the MENA for much of the past century, and how they will continue to do so. For over two decades, the region seemed to be losing a lot of its energy importance for the West. Both the US and European countries have sought to reduce their involvement in MENA geopolitics, declaring instead their intention to focus on the Indo-Pacific. This all changed with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent...

Originally published 15 March 2023. The recent annual meetings of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress (NPC) - the ‘Two Sessions’ - have already confirmed the national budget, high-level personnel appointments, and noted China's foreign and security outlook. Newly appointed Foreign Minister Qin Gang used tough language when discussing the US, while President Xi accused the West – led by the US – of seeking China's containment. Amid...

Following the announcement of the ‘Windsor Framework’ between the UK and Brussels over Northern Ireland’s trading arrangements - ending the most bitter Brexit dispute - there is a palpable sense that the UK may have turned a corner in its relations with the EU. With the UK taking a leading role in support of Ukraine and in more broadly countering Russia , the country also seems to have to have reasserted itself as one of Europe’s leading powers. At home, the weakening of the Scottish...

As we approach the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Global Security Briefing looks at the effects of the war, the potential risks for escalation, and what to expect in the future. A year after Russia’s full-scale invasion began, the Ukrainian armed forces and population, with strong backing from a coalition of allies, have managed to blunt the attack. Russia has, however, begun to reorganise and learn from its mistakes. Host Neil Melvin sits down with Hanna Shelest, Director of...