Description
Another recession warning and this one is related to brewing problems with unemployment. The September payroll report has put mainstream focus back on a soft- or no-landing scenario, but we've been there before not long ago. Meanwhile, apart from the unreliable payroll figure everything else continues to point to bigger trouble, including Americans who have stopped using their credit cards.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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ABC News Blockbuster jobs report flexes economic strength, defying Americans' lukewarm attitudeshttps://abcnews.go.com/Business/blockbuster-jobs-report-flexes-economic-strength-defying-americans/story?id=108887637
Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cuts Flat in September 2024 from August; YTD Surpasses 2023https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-flat-in-september-2024-from-august-ytd-surpasses-2023/
Robert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemploymenthttps://home.uchicago.edu/~shimer/wp/reassess.pdf
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
October payrolls were exceptionally weak, yet LT rates jump? With more rate cuts from the Fed basically assured, questions swirl around the Treasury selloff having many people wondering if there is a 'Trump trade' going on here. The answers are right there in front of us.
Eurodollar University's...
Published 11/04/24
This isn't about October or hurricanes. Government just confirmed jobs market is in big f-ing trouble.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BLS Employment Situation October 2024https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11012024.pdf
CNN Messy October jobs report muddied by...
Published 11/03/24