European markets managed to close Monday’s session higher but the same could not be said for the US, where tech stocks fared the worst. Strong US retail sales data pushed back expectations of rate cuts there until September. Concerns about an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East did little to calm jittery Asian markets and they fell further on mixed economic data from China. Norbert Rücker explains why it’s important not to underestimate the resilience of the energy market regardless...

Despite global government bond yields remaining high following this week’s US inflation reports, equities staged a recovery rally into the close. And overnight, gold hit another record high, edging closer to the USD 2,400 mark each day. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Solutions Geneva, shares his views on tuna, pianos and why he is not short the Japanese yen. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:41 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:56 FX...

Hotter US inflation lowered expectations of interest rate cuts. Wall Street reacted with a down day, but the weakness did not spread to European or Asian equities. However, it was government bond yields and the USD that rose sharply. Today's focus is on the ECB's rate decision – a rate cut is not expected, so the focus will be on the comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde. And the JPY is at its lowest level since 1980, raising the spectre of monetary intervention. Tensions are rising...

Market action appears subdued as investors around the world await key US inflation data later today. Meanwhile, on a more company-specific level, ‘everything AI’ still seems to be the trend. In the Asia-Pacific region overnight, data showed that Japan’s corporate inflation rate rose for the third month in a row, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.5%. Fixed Income strategist Dario Messi joins the show today to discuss longer-maturity bonds, and...

The major US equity indices closed around flat yesterday while small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 index gaining 0.5%. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.43%, prompting investors to raise their bets on the Fed cutting rates just twice this year following last week’s jobs data upside surprise. And David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides his outlook for the future interest rate policy paths for the Fed and the ECB. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28...

Markets had a difficult start to the second quarter last week, with the S&P 500 posting its worst weekly performance for 3 months as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices led to growing concerns about inflation. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday has led investors to continue to price in fewer Fed rate cuts, pushing yields on government bonds to key levels. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why 4.5% is an important level for...

Markets took a sharp risk-off turn in late US trading yesterday. The main catalyst was rising tensions in the Middle East, with oil prices rallying above USD 90/bbl for the first time since October, which in turn added to existing fears about inflation. In Switzerland, inflation figures for March once again surprised to the downside, which put pressure on the Swiss franc. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about what he expects for the safe-haven currency going forward and...

After a cautious start to Q2, equity markets regained their stride in Wednesday’s session climbing higher across regions. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed is still in wait-and-see mode when it comes to rate cuts, but markets took more comfort from the fact that he reaffirmed that the Fed is likely to cut rates this year. Our Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Norbert Rücker, explains the different narratives at play in the oil market and what they...

The second quarter is off to a rocky start for global equities as sticky inflation data and strong economic figures have pushed bond yields higher and their prices lower, weighing on a stock market that has so far ignored the repricing of central bank rate cuts in recent months. The only asset currently seeing an upside seems to be commodities, with oil hitting a five-month high and gold reaching a record high yesterday. Fixed Income strategist Dario Messi joins the show today to discuss the...

Strong US manufacturing data, pointing to expansion for the first time in over a year, pushed US Treasury yields higher and stocks lower, albeit in light trading. Meanwhile, gold continues to trade higher, almost on a daily basis. But Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, says investors should favour productive assets as momentum remains strong in many parts of the market. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment...

The equity market rally is continuing ahead of the Easter break, while fixed income markets are a little less euphoric following Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s comments that recent economic data does not warrant as many interest rate cuts as expected. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, argues that sentiment in the gold market is overly bullish. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:17...

While there are still a few trading days left in the quarter, equity trading already seems to be driven by end-of-quarter positioning. Overnight in Asia, Japanese stocks rose as the yen fell to its lowest level against the US dollar in around 34 years, while the rest of Asia struggled for momentum. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research joins the show today to discuss the Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision and what it means for Swiss franc-denominated bonds. 00:00 Introduction by...

Social media stocks are in the spotlight as the EU takes a closer look at their activities and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signs a bill banning minors under 14 from having social media accounts. In fixed income, the US yield curve has been inverted for more than 430 trading days, the longest period on record. In Asia, the Chinese government continues its efforts to shore up confidence amid a slowdown in foreign investment. Meanwhile, cocoa prices are at an all-time high, trading higher than...

US equities had their best week of the year, with the technology sector leading the way. Global equities were also strong. The broader risk-on sentiment was driven by relatively dovish central bank meetings on both sides of the Atlantic, including the first G10 rate cut of the cycle by the SNB. The dovish backdrop led to a sharp fall in global government bond yields. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show to discuss the market's technical setup and what the strong momentum...

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets by cutting interest rates ahead of other major central banks, sending Swiss equities higher yesterday. Equities were also higher elsewhere: in the US, all three major indices closed at record levels, and European equities also ended at new all-time highs, with UK equities seeing strong gains. Overnight in Asia, however, stock markets were mostly lower, with Japan – once again – being the outlier. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva,...

US stocks rallied yesterday, closing at all-time highs after the US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth straight meeting in a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent. The market optimism is extending to Asia today, where stocks are at their highest levels in nearly two years as the tech sector rallies. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on industrial production in China, what this means for industrial metals and why we like...

Investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the much-anticipated Fed decision, with government bond yields stabilising yesterday. That didn’t stop equities in the US and Europe from reaching new record highs. The focusnow moves to central banks for the rest of the week. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategist, talks about the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and what to expect from the FOMC meeting today. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:25 Markets wrap-up...

After 17 years, the Bank of Japan has become the last global central bank to end its negative interest rate policy, but the JPY is lower as some expected even more policy tightening. US equities outperformed on strength in AI names, in particular Alphabet. Nvidia unveiled a new chip that is up to 30 times faster than its predecessor. Demand for high yield bonds remains strong despite low spreads. Oil has moved above its range from earlier in the year amid supply concerns. Manuel Villegas from...

With a number of major central banks meeting this week, volatility will potentially return to equity markets. Slightly weaker economic growth data, coupled with inflation that is proving stickier than expected, is making life difficult for central bankers now. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why investing at market tops tends to be beneficial over time. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment...

Higher-than-expected producer prices spooked investors yesterday, sending Treasury yields and the US dollar higher and equity markets lower. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China kept its one-year medium term lending facility rate unchanged and investors are now focusing on Japan’s interest rate decision next week. Bitcoin saw a pullback, while oil climbed to a fresh 2024 high after the International Energy Agency warned of a supply deficit throughout this year. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM...

European stocks closed broadly higher on Wednesday whilst the US took a breather, with some of the big tech stocks lower on the day. Japan was the standout Asian stock market with stocks boosted by an advance in commodity companies and a slightly weaker yen. The general market focus now turns to US PPI data due out today. Our Head of Economics & Next Generation Research Norbert Rücker, gives his latest thoughts on the oil market, and Nicolas Jordan provides the latest market insights from...

US and European equity markets put in another strong performance yesterday, climbing to fresh records as the latest hotter-than-expected inflation figures did little to alter bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year - even if officials keep a more cautious stance for now. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategist, shares details about yesterday’s US inflation report and what it means for the Fed and bond investors. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:27...

US equities ended mostly lower in a calmer session yesterday ahead of today’s eagerly awaited inflation print out of the US. The Japanese yen fell against its peers after the latest comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on Bitcoin and shares his insights into what’s driving its string of new all-time highs. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:25 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 05:30...

The US labour market continues to cool, but red-hot Nvidia first hit a record high then recorded a 10% intra-day drop, the USD had its longest losing streak since last October, and gold and Bitcoin reached all-time highs – these are just some of the headlines from last week. Asia is starting this week with better inflation figures out of China, but prospects of higher interest rates and a stronger JPY mean that Japanese shares are off their all-time high. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical...

Both European and US stock market indices rally to new all-time highs as the two most important central bankers hint at interest rate cuts as early as this summer. In currencies, the Japanese yen is higher again this morning, trading at multi-month highs against the US dollar. And Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on why he thinks gold's rally has no legs. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani...