In the first episode of Ripple Effect, Steve and Michael talk with Colin Kahl, former under-secretary of defence for policy in the Biden administration, about the United States’ relations with the rest of the world as it moves toward a high-stakes election in November 2024. They discuss the foreign policy that the Biden administration inherited from Donald Trump in 2021, the kinds of changes Trump might make should he return to the Oval Office, and how the United States’ friends and adversaries would greet a second Trump presidency. They also parse how the upcoming election could shape conflict dynamics between Russia and Ukraine, the recent thaw in bilateral relations between the U.S. and China, and even the prospect of a shooting war between the U.S. and Mexico’s drug cartels.  Finally, they look at why the U.S. hasn't joined the global call for a ceasefire in Gaza and the possibilities for U.S. policy shifts as the war’s toll increases.  For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our United States page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.