Description
It is exactly these types cataclysmic events that are not just disruptive but, potentially apocalyptic for how some industries conduct business and what types of information becomes transparent. These sorts of changes that are immediate and require a 180 degree shift in outlook are both phenomenally destructive to legacy infrastructure and ways of conducting business. Let me give you my rundown for this pandemic protest economic timeline---in the future ill refer to this as PPE moving forward.
OK---let me try and briefly summarize the events and then get into how you can look at these changes to make a bunch of money.
Here in San diego we have been fully quarantined since February 14. This first started as a virus and we as a nation reacted to this as a serious threat to human life. One by one large metro markets started to shut down business operations to curtail unnecessary human death. I cant help but, think that the stance on whether to shut down or not to shut down had more to do with politics than with the actual infection or death rates of the virus.
On this note: I should probably note that China was only seeing something like a 4% death rate which is terrible but, a 4% death rate doesn’t sound very bad when sars and mers the last two pandemics had death rates of 10 and 30%
Either way---- we were all looking at daily death rates and staying home to be on the safe side for a lot of people it started to feel like we were on summer vacation in high school. While everyone is napping and getting their unemployment checks ---that extra 600 bucks a week and a forebearance on your mortgage started to feel pretty good. That is until we started to see massive numbers in the unemployed ranks and for a lot of people when they see unemployment numbers like that its very easy to recall the financial crisis of 2008
Im recording this June 9 2020---the question on everyones mind right now is
Are these changes to the employed rolls permanent When will these jobs come back Wheres the opportunity for me? How can I win in this environment?
If your like me you want to talk about C. Where is the new opportunity? That’s what Im tyring to figure out. I would love to heqr your ideas –send me an email.
On A) The massive and immediate unemployment numbers are due to two basic factors. The first is that it was mandated that non-essential workers stay home. Simple cause and effect. The 2 trillion dollar Cares act in principal was ideally a way to fund businesses to stay open by helping them pay their employees while juicing the actual enemployment payments 600 dollars a week. A lot of lower paid workers were making more than if they were actually working. Theres lots of money running through the veins of our economy so far so good---whats the problem? The problem that we all kinda forgot over the last few weeks is that the virus is going to be a problem until we get a vaccine and a typical vaccine can take a decade or more. The fastest vaccine ever produced is 4 years for the mumps. The good news is that there are 42 clinical trials underway so we could optimistically see something be developed within a year and we then need to mass produce it and mass distribute it. For the US government a year sounds ambitious-----Bill Gates and Jeff bezos are throwing in a billion trying to crack this problem. I have no doubt that private citizens can do this better than our federal government.
If we assume the best case 1 year scenario---that means that we need to develop new ways of working within the bounds of covid 19 and social distancing. There will be markets like Texas that find themselves inclined to go completely open with no social distancing or a California that will open with timidly. Before last week I would have been watching the open markets
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