In this episode, Nik presents a global macro update, breaking down conflicting signals in the US economy. He starts with inflation data, a recession that never seems to come, the surging US dollar’s impact on global markets, and the signal we derive from the shape of the yield curve. He tackles the Fed's balancing act between inflation, unemployment, and market expectations, while exploring if traditional recession indicators still apply. We make sure to include a segment on the bitcoin price and implications from the upcoming US election on financial markets. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Efani delivers premium mobile service with unparalleled protection against SIM swaps and privacy invasions. Use code TBL at checkout for $99 off the Efani SAFE Plan. https://www.efani.com/tbl?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 865275 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #GlobalMacro #USEconomy #RecessionFears #USDollar #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #USElection2024 #FinancialMarkets #MarketTrends #EconomicOutlook #FedPolicy #Unemployment #MarketAnalysis #TBLiquidity #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #DollarStrength #RateCuts #BondMarket #LaborMarket #REPO #GlobalMacro #AssetManagement #NikExplains #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice. Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise