In this episode, Nik joined once again by portfolio manager and fixed-income expert Andy Constan. Andy explains his bearish view on the stock market as a reaction to inflation refusing to come down and the Treasury department likely to keep coupon issuance high. He also breaks down why he does not view today's situation as fiscal dominance any longer and how restrictive monetary policy will ultimately impact the economy. Andy briefly discusses Michael Howell's liquidity framework and why...

In this episode, Joe sits down with Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, live at the Bitcoin Policy Summit in Washington DC. Alex discusses his keynote speech, why bitcoin values are American values, and how property rights are now digitally ensured. He also explains the embedded geopolitical resiliency of the bitcoin network. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on notifications for...

In this episode, Nik brings us a timely chart pack to discuss a wild week in financial markets. With weakness in the stock market, Nik goes through charts on bitcoin, the dollar versus euro and Asian currencies, the latest in Japanese yen weakness, China's currency prospects, US & global debt to GDP, the latest inflation numbers, and recession likelihood. Throughout, Nik wonders if there is a major shift underway in the global monetary system. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by...

In this episode, Nik is joined by ResiClub co-founder Lance Lambert to discuss the US residential housing market. Lance explains why he is labeling the housing market 'constrained,' including how high mortgage rates are limiting buyer affordability while trapping sellers who don't want to give up sub-4% notes. He also breaks down regional differences in the market, addresses short-term rentals (AirBnB), and contrasts multi-family properties to residential...

In this episode, Joe sits down with Matthew Pines, Director of Security Advisory at Sentinel One National Security Fellow. Live at the 2nd Annual Bitcoin Policy Summit hosted by the Bitcoin Policy Institute, Matt delivers his geopolitical analysis, discusses how American companies are working directly with eastern countries, the US-China cold war that is brewing on the tech, trade, and currency fronts, and how complacency with BTC policy will severely set the United States back on the global...

In this episode, Nik is joined by veteran trader Craig Shapiro to discuss the diminishing role of the dollar in international trade settlement. Craig introduces the petrodollar as an instrument in marginal decline since 2022, why China is resisting US calls for it to revalue its currency stronger, and how gold is responding to a new international monetary system. Learn why the oil trade, Treasury yield curve, and gold's new all-time high are all related. Follow Craig's Writing:...

In this episode, Nik teaches us about how bank deposits, money market funds, and Treasury securities interact with Fed reserves. After explanations on financial plumbing, he proceeds to break down recent economic data and explain why stocks and real estate have had great starts to 2024. He finishes with bitcoin price and valuation analysis. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Bitcoin historian Pete Rizzo on Satoshi Nakamoto's birthday. Pete explains the history of Satoshi's April 5 birthday and its significance, speaks to Bitcoin's origins by diving into the cypherpunk movement, and breaks down early Satoshi email and online communication for a better understanding of his motivations. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Cognitive Investments partner Jacob Shapiro to discuss India. Jacob helps us understand the Indian political scene and gives background on the rise of current Prime Minister Narendra Modi. We ask Jacob about India's economic future and whether politics will help or hurt the country's growth aspirations. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on...

In this episode, Nik and Matt Dines provide an explainer on global banking regulations, Basel III, and leverage ratio regulations. Matt helps us understand the history of the Bank for International Settlements and Basel-originated leverage ratios for banks. We learn the difference between asset-side and liability-side regulations and discuss the United Stated implementation: the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and...

In this episode, Nik brings us a quarter-end global macroeconomic and markets update. He begins with a look at US inflation, walks us through Treasury yields and Fed expectations, and discusses the tug of war between fiscal dominance and restrictive monetary policy. Finally, he closes with some important thoughts on bitcoin price action. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on...

In this episode, Nik is joined by geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro. Jacob breaks down the latest monetary policy adjustment from the Bank of Japan, but more importantly, he shares his vision on how Japan might be on the cusp of a major transformation. Additionally, Jacob brings us up to speed on the Chinese economy and discusses the symbiotic relationship between the Chinese and Japanese economies. Finally, he brings us context on the current fiscal woes in the United States. The Bitcoin...

In this episode, Nik is joined by monetary researcher Ritik Goyal. Ritik gives a masterclass on monetary mechanics, including how the Treasury creates money when it spends instead of borrows, why fiscal dominance and the interest income channel are contributing to strong GDP, and what the criteria would be for a recession. Monetary students should be prepared to go through this fantastic learning episode twice. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn...

In this episode, Joe is joined by Lawrence Lepard, an investment manager with Equity Management Advisors. In this all-encompassing discussion, he breaks down why Jerome Powell's tapering of the balance sheet and rate cuts are to support the US Treasury, why gold and bitcoin are reflecting easy money conditions still to come, and what individual investors can do to position themselves properly in this deteriorating fiscal and monetary landscape. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River....

In this episode, Nik is joined by Daniel Batten of CH4 Capital to discuss anti-Bitcoin propaganda. Daniel summarizes how Bitcoin helps the environment by miners removing harmful methane emissions, identifies anti-bitcoin propaganda as a mix of ignorance and incumbent malice, and explains the source of propaganda as primarily European financial institutions. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe...

In this episode, Joe discusses bitcoin's current 15% pullback. He walks through several charts to discuss how how these pullbacks happen 10 times or more during typical bull markets, potential levels of support for bitcoin's price as it regains its footing, and why given long-term holder behavior, the halving, and the macro backdrop, he believes this is merely a minor pullback in an overall bull market. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Blockstream developer Rusty Russell for an incredible conversation about Lightning Network. Rusty explains why he agrees with the thesis of Lightning Network as a type of layered bitcoin, how it is evolving, and how he measures its success. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter:...

In this episode, Nik conducts price study on bitcoin to gauge whether or not the market is overheated and topping out. We begin with an analysis of bitcoin funding markets and a brief explanation of their significance, and then proceed with a look at weekly and monthly candles and bitcoin's relative strength index (RSI). The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Galaxy head of research, Alex Thorn. Alex gives his take on bitcoin ETF inflows now topping $1 billion per day, explains the ability of shareholders to leverage holdings with prime brokers, and shares an excellent overview of how on-chain metrics are evolving. Learn why Alex believes we are still early in this current bitcoin bull market. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Custodia Bank to discuss the current bitcoin bull market. Caitlin shares her thoughts on the enormous demand for bitcoin ETFs since approval, explains why Wall Street will never control bitcoin, and discusses her bank's regulatory fight against the US government. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on notifications for...

Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer, where we bring you research, analysis, and education for all things bitcoin and macro. In this episode, Nik presents an explainer on Bitcoin's realized price. In an effort to simplify the understanding of on-chain metrics, Nik gives us basic definitions of nodes, UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs), realized capitalization, and realized price. We look at the formula for realized price, and give several illustrations of the differences between market price and...

Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer, where we bring you research, analysis, and education for all things bitcoin and macro. In this episode, Nik breaks down the massive fiscal deficits of the US government over the past five years. We begin with comparing today's deficit historically, explain the numbers behind how the US has spent $10 trillion more than it has collected since 2020, and how this deficit has impacted financial markets and the economy. Nik discusses bitcoin's price increase to...

Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer, where we bring you research, analysis, and education for all things bitcoin and macro. In this episode, Nik is joined by bitcoin researcher Jamie Coutts to discuss his thesis on nation states adopting bitcoin via domestic mining operations, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Jamie explains his bitcoin research process, including how he looks at perpetual futures funding markets, on-chain metrics, and ETF flows. Jamie has the Chartered Market Technician...

Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer, where we bring you research, analysis, and education for all things bitcoin and macro. In this episode, Nik is joined by real estate investor Kelly Lannan. Kelly breaks down the trouble brewing across the commercial real estate sector, including how new multifamily properties are unable to receive financing, existing properties are struggling to refinance due to reduced occupancy and higher rates, and whether the sector can survive until rates are lower in 2025....

Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer, where we bring you research, analysis, and education for all things bitcoin and macro. In this episode, Nik brings us a massive chart pack from around the world of financial markets, global macro, and bitcoin. He begins with a recap on why debt monetization is TBL's underlying thesis looking forward, goes through manufacturing, home price, and inflation data, and spends time on weekly candlesticks from all the major markets. Finally, Nik concludes with some very...