Last month the Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, warned that "things would get worse before they got better". The Chancellor Rachel Reeves has already said that there's a £22 billion black hole in the government's finances left by the Conservatives. The budget at the end of October, we're told, will be "painful". But just how bad a state is the UK economy really in? And how constrained is the new government by manifesto promises it made not to raise the main taxes on working people? Guests: Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Mehreen Khan, Economics editor at The TImes Chris Giles, Economics Commentator at The Financial TImes Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Ben Carter, Caroline Bayley and Kirsteen Knight Sound engineers: Sarah Hockley and Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman