In this episode of The Cognitive Revolution, Nathan interviews Samo Burja, founder of Bismarck Analysis, on the strategic dynamics of artificial intelligence through a geopolitical lens. They discuss AI's trajectory, the chip supply chain, US-China relations, and the challenges of AI safety and militarization. Samo Burja brings both geopolitical expertise and technological sophistication to these critical topics, offering insights on balancing innovation, security, and international cooperation. Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Live Players with Samo Burja. The "Live Players" podcast is where Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg chart the key individuals shaping our future from first principles. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfeXnCXKrCPMvoPla0j7TYQ SPONSORS: Oracle: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds; offers one consistent price, and nobody does data better than Oracle. If you want to do more and spend less, take a free test drive of OCI at https://oracle.com/cognitive Brave: The Brave search API can be used to assemble a data set to train your AI models and help with retrieval augmentation at the time of inference. All while remaining affordable with developer first pricing, integrating the Brave search API into your workflow translates to more ethical data sourcing and more human representative data sets. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://bit.ly/BraveTCR Omneky: Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off https://www.omneky.com/ Squad: Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. CHAPTERS: (00:00:00) About the Show (00:00:22) About the Episode (00:03:48) Introduction and AI Worldview (00:06:20) Progress in AI Science and Engineering (00:09:24) Theory of AI Progress (00:12:00) AI Scientists vs Software Engineers (00:16:32) US-China Competition in AI (00:21:12) AI Research and Academia (00:21:28) Sponsors: Oracle | Brave (00:28:30) Different Forms of AI Intelligence (00:30:38) Mixture of AI Architectures (00:33:10) Sponsors: Omneky | Squad (00:34:36) US Strategy for AI Development (00:41:57) US-China Chip Ban and Industrial Policy (00:50:22) US-China AI Conflict and Cooperation (01:06:19) AI Safety and Minimizing Self-Other Distinction (01:16:54) Alternative Approach to US-China AI Relations (01:23:36) Outro