Private credit’s double-digit returns are here to stay, even as interest rates drop and risks rise, according to Arcmont Asset Management. “Our spreads have been very consistent for a decade,” says Mattis Poetter, the European private debt firm’s co-chief investment officer, in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “I think that’s sustainable,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Kat Hidalgo, and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst Robert Schiffman. In...

The best credit investments are in asset-backed securities, particularly those linked to US households, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. “We absolutely see opportunities for yield pickup there,” says Kay Herr, the firm’s chief investment officer for US fixed income, in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “The consumer’s going to be OK,” she tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst Julie Hung. The CIO meanwhile flags...

US companies with about $200 billion in debt — 10% of the junk market — can’t survive at prevailing elevated interest rates, according to Bank of America. “At the bottom decile, we are looking at issuers that are in most likelihood not going to be able to come out of this high-rate episode without doing something to their balance sheet,” says Oleg Melentyev, head of US high-yield strategy at Bank of America, in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “Half of that segment...

Invesco is buying real estate investment trust debt and preferred bonds from banks, betting that the US economy stays strong and interest rates eventually fall. “If you’re looking at yield, it is kind of a golden age for bonds,” says Matt Brill, the $1.6 trillion money manager’s head of North America investment-grade credit, in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “You’re getting paid to wait and at some point here, you’re going to get that kicker of the Fed starting to...

Household debt is a good investment as the US economy remains strong, Jeremy Forster, portfolio manager at Wellington Management, says in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “We do still think that the US consumer is in really good shape,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst Arnold Kakuda. Forster expects “compelling” returns in fixed income for 2024, which he thinks will be the year of the bond. In addition,...

Rising private credit stress will inflict losses on investors and spur volatility, Jerry Cudzil, portfolio manager at TCW Group, says in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “Default rates are going to pick up in a really material way in private credit,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst David Havens. “We are currently seeing some real stress,” says Cudzil, who expects “accidents” as documentation weakens and...

Western Asset Management Co. sees “compelling” opportunities in commercial real estate debt, Co-Chief Investment Officer Michael Buchanan says in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. This includes loans for warehouses, distribution centers and hotels, he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst Stephen Flynn, adding that the firm is cautious on offices. In addition, Western Asset likes collateralized loan obligations and debt...

Altice ‘Jenga Tower’ Menaces Global Credit Markets (Podcast)Altice distress is ripping through global credit markets and setting some ugly precedents for debt investors. Aidan Cheslin from Bloomberg Intelligence joins Irene Garcia Perez, Eleanor Duncan and James Crombie with Bloomberg News to discuss the ongoing drama. Billionaire owner Patrick Drahi has taken a combative approach to creditors, who are joining forces in an effort to avoid steep losses. Credit rating downgrades and asset price...

Corporate debt markets are poised to perform well provided monetary policy doesn’t get tighter, according to Morgan Stanley. “As a credit investor, the thing that matters most is that the next Fed policy action is not a hike,” Vishy Tirupattur, the bank’s chief fixed income strategist, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Spencer Cutter. “The bar for a hike is very high,” he adds. Morgan Stanley still expects three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year,...

The threat of weak companies not being able to pay their debts is rising as interest rates stay elevated. “On high yield and loans, I do think that risks are growing that you could see a reset in spreads,” Meghan Robson, head of US credit strategy at BNP Paribas, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Holland. “The obvious trigger for us would be that debate of rate hikes coming back,” Robson says in the latest Credit Edge podcast. BNP favors shorting some...

Europe’s largest asset manager, Amundi, expects Additional Tier 1 bank bonds to extend gains in what it sees as a broadly positive market for corporate debt. “We’re obviously in this kind of Goldilocks scenario, I think, where the central bank put remains on the table,” Steven Fawn, head of global credit at Amundi Asset Management, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephane Kovatchev. “Sub-debt is one part of the market which we like,” Fawn says in the latest...

Altice’s debt woes pose a threat to the collateralized loan obligation market, says Gunther Stein, chief investment officer for US performing credit and CLOs at Sound Point Capital Management. “Altice is clearly an issue for Europe, and in particular the European CLO market,” Stein tells Bloomberg News’ Carmen Arroyo and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “It’s something we all have to be thoughtful around in terms of how we’re...

Credit investors aren’t getting enough compensation for corporate credit risk, says Matthew Eagan, a portfolio manager and head of the full discretion team at Loomis Sayles & Co. “Judging from the spread levels, I think they’ve gone a bit too far,” Eagan tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephen Flynn in the latest Credit Edge podcast. He sees investment grade debt as an opportunity, given decent corporate earnings and the fact that debt costs...

Asset-based lending is set to expand over the next 10 years at the same heady pace as private credit, according to Bruce Richards, CEO and Chairman of Marathon Asset Management. “The $100 billion middle-market lending and private-credit lending business in 2008 which grew to $1.7 trillion where it is today — a 17-fold increase — you’ll see the same thing happening in ABL in this next decade,” he tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda, in...

Credit derivatives and securitizations offer high yields and can perform well even if the US economy tips into recession, says Jonathan Dorfman, managing principal and chief investment officer at Napier Park Global Capital. “In credit, for the first time in 15 years, you can actually create portfolios that give equity-like returns,” he tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Standardization and improved...

Financial institutions are selling off consumer loans under pressure from regulators, setting up investors for significant gains, according to Mark Jenkins, head of global credit at Carlyle Group Inc. “Banks in the US in particular are managing down their risk-weighed assets, and that is creating a deluge of opportunities for us,” he tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie, and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Debt being offloaded by banks...

Buyers of distressed real estate debt stand to make significant gains over the next few years, according to Joshua Pack, co-CEO at Fortress Investment Group. “This is going to be a trillion-dollar opportunity,” he said. Pack discusses how Fortress is getting ready for “a massive restructuring” in the sector with Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. The impact on banks will be long-lasting and not limited to...

US-style creditor-on-creditor violence spreading to Europe is a worry for loan investors, according to Camille McLeod-Salmon, portfolio manager at Fidelity International. “What we are focused on is this move that’s in the US towards creditor-on-creditor violence — and the shift that you’ve had there — and that translating into Europe,” she said. London-based McLeod-Salmon talks to Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Aidan Cheslin in the latest Credit Edge...

Geopolitics are a potential menace to public debt markets that could present opportunities for private lenders, according to Mike Dennis, co-head of European credit at Ares Management. “The capital markets in general are still pretty fragile,” Dennis tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “It wouldn’t take much for that liquidity to reverse out of the system,” he said. Volatility may open the door for private credit firms to participate more in...

Collateralized loan obligations are among the best debt investment opportunities for this year, according to John Wright, global head of credit at Bain Capital. Spreads on the structured investment vehicles, which repackage leveraged loans into bonds of varying risk, may tighten further, even as default rates rise, Wright tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Holland in the latest Credit Edge podcast. He also sees robust potential for growth in...

 The US economy is at risk of tipping into recession in the second half of this year, putting pressure on corporate debt markets, says Chris Alwine, global head of credit at Vanguard. “What would precipitate that shallow recession is that corporations are just not hiring, with a modest increase in layoffs,” said Alwine. Vanguard, one of the biggest money managers in the world, with $8.6 trillion in assets, is cautious on junk-rated debt, Alwine tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie...

Private debt needs to get better at explaining itself as the $1.6 trillion asset class goes mainstream, according to James Reynolds, global head of direct lending at Goldman Sachs. “We collectively need to just demystify what we do — which is in simple words, lending to corporates,” Reynolds tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Goldman wants to double the size of its $110 billion private credit business....

Private-debt firms are set to consolidate as larger companies dominate deal flow, according to Marc Chowrimootoo, portfolio manager at Hayfin Capital Management. “We’re seeing a concentration within fewer hands,” Chowrimootoo tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Julie Hung in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “That trend is going to continue.” He identifies debt refinancing as the big opportunity for private lenders in 2024. Hayfin likes the health-care...

Commercial real estate faces a tough 2024 as trillions of dollars in debt comes due and refinancing gets harder, according to Neil Callanan, corporate finance czar at Bloomberg News. Offices in financial centers are especially under pressure after banks tightened lending standards, Callanan tells Bloomberg senior editor James Crombie in the latest episode of the BI Credit Edge Podcast. He’s watching for delayed and canceled new projects and short selling of real estate companies as signals of...

New entrants to the rapidly-growing private credit market, scrambling to deploy capital as demand exceeds supply, risk making loans that don’t perform well, according to Alan Schrager, senior partner and portfolio manager at Oak Hill Advisors. “You sort of love private credit tourists who potentially do bad deals, because bad deals that ultimately you don’t own make you look good on a relative basis,” Schrager says. “Even though we do think private credit is really cheap, we are trying to...