The dust has settled, we've caught up on our sleep, and the Expert Factor team have assembled in the studio to make sense of a big set of local elections. Local Government Chronicle editor Sarah Calkin is this week’s special guest, joining Anand and Paul to explain what these votes were all about and why they matter.  So what do these elections mean for Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer? Will the results have any impact on campaign strategies for the general election? Could they even force Sunak...

The general election campaign will probably be all about immigration, the economy, jobs and the NHS, but an industrial strategy – or not, if there isn’t one – could be critical to the future of this country. But what exactly is an industrial strategy? And why should voters pay attention to whether the government has one – and what Labour might do differently? Hannah and Paul are joined on this week’s Expert Factor by Giles Wilkes, who has worked on industrial strategy at the heart of...

The NHS is front and centre of a general election campaign. Rishi Sunak has placed the NHS at the heart of the five pledges he wants to voters to judge him on, while Keir Starmer has made NHS reform one of the five missions which he says would drive a Labour government. But money is tight, and performance levels are poor. That familiar subject of how to reform the NHS is surfacing again – along with the tricky question of how to pay for our health service. So how is the NHS funded? How much...

‘Stopping the boats’ was one of Rishi Sunak’s five priorities at the start of 2023. The numbers, and the visuals, of small boats arriving on the UK’s southern coast is an issue long seized upon by Nigel Farage and the Reform Party that has, to some extent, spooked both the Conservatives and Labour. And it is a policy problem that has caused massive headaches for the finest minds in government, a succession of ministers as well as the officials trying to implement that policy.So what's...

With elections being held in the UK, India, the US, Austria, Belgium and for the European Parliament, 2024 is going to be a huge year for politics, politicians and political parties. But could it also be another big year for populists?   In recent years populist parties of the right and left have exploited anger towards the political elite, a loss of trusts in governments, and growing democratic dissatisfaction. They have surged in polls and made electoral breakthroughs, but will the coming...

On 5 November 2024, up to 161 million American voters will go to the polls to vote for the next president of the United States – and will be faced with a choice between the same two candidates that stood in 2020. Joe Biden, the incumbent, will again face Donald Trump – the former president who lost to Biden in 2020. But polling suggests many voters are less than enthused by the choice. Non-MAGA Republicans feeling queasy about the prospect of Trump – who is still facing a pile of legal...

Take a look at the polls and you might be forgiven for thinking that the next general election is heading towards one outcome and one outcome only. But that election could be months away – even next year, and a week, let alone a month, is a long time in politics. Keir Starmer keeps reminding his party not to be complacent, and Peter Mandelson has even predicted that the next election will result in a hung parliament. If so, then what happens? What would it mean for the country if no party...

A major new report by the Institute for Government says the centre of government – No10, the Treasury and the Cabinet Office – is not capable of meeting the challenges that the UK faces in the 21st century.  So what has been going wrong? How has No.10 failed prime ministers from different parties over the last two decades? What does the Cabinet Office actually do, and why has it more than doubled its size in the last ten years?  Should the Treasury be split up? Is it right that the most. ...

Politics is not for the faint hearted, but it feels like we’re witnessing an outbreak of increasingly divisive language. Lee Anderson has been suspended as a Conservative MP. Suella Braverman’s interventions divide opinion. The Labour Party – no stranger to running into controversy over its politicians or party members – has endured a particularly difficult time in the build-up to the Rochdale by-election. So what’s going wrong? Why are politicians choosing to use this type of language? Do...

Jeremy Hunt will reveal his 2024 Spring Budget on Wednesday March 6th. So what can we expect from the chancellor?  Has the fiscal situation improved – or worsened – over the last few months? Are tax cuts really plausible given the state of public service performance?  How will Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves respond? Will this be the last budget before the general election? And could this be the moment that Rishi Sunak turns around his government’s fortunes?  On this week’s Expert...

On the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Expert Factor team assemble to examine what an era of global instability means for the UK, for our government and for British politics. What would the return of Donald Trump to the White House mean for whoever wins the general election? How is the conflict in the Middle East impacting British politics – and the decisions that British politicians need to take? Does the UK have the resources to meet its foreign policy aims and...

With Paul Johnson away on holiday, Hannah and Anand are joined by Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen's University Belfast, for a deep dive into recent dramatic political developments in Northern Ireland. A deal has finally been struck and power-sharing has been restored in Northern Ireland. So how will it work? What has been the human cost of an absence of government at Stormont? How will this impact Northern Ireland's relationship with the EU? And what could the deal...

Guess what issue tops the charts of voter concerns? It’s the economy, stupid. Interest rates have soared. We've had high inflation. Mortgage rates have hit eye watering levels. And tax rates are at record highs. So just how unhealthy is the UK's economy? How might things change in the run up to the next election – and will Rishi Sunak’s pledges work out? Will whoever forms the next government be in for a nightmarish fiscal inheritance – and what does this mean for public services? And what,...

It is four years since the UK left the EU – and nearly eight years since that referendum. So what have we learnt? How has Brexit worked out – and what changes could yet be introduced? What is the current state of UK/EU relations? How might they develop in the future? And could a future government try and renegotiate the UK’s deal with the EU? This episode of The Expert Factor is a deep dive into how Brexit is working out – and how it might develop in the months and years ahead. -------- THE...

Adam Fleming, presenter of the BBC’s daily Newscast on BBC Sounds and Antisocial on Radio 4 joins us for this special live recording of The Expert Factor! What is the best way to hold politicians to account? Does it matter if a minister is given an official warning for making inaccurate claims? Who reads manifestos and do manifesto pledges actually matter? How can we find out what voters are really worried about? And what is the best way to be an expert in a general election year? This...

Power changes hands overnight following a general election. Shadow ministers go from running small offices to being in charge of thousands of civil servants. Their advisers become all-powerful special advisers operating at the heart of government. And the leader of the opposition moves from an office in Parliament to 10 Downing Street, instantly handed the levers of power and a Rolodex of the world’s most important people. So how can oppositions prepare for such a massive change? What goes...

This could be a pivotal year for British politics. A general election is set to take place in 2024. Rishi Sunak is urging voters to stick with the plan. Keir Starmer is pitching this as a year of change. So when might the general election be held? What is the most likely outcome? How will the economic outlook shape the next government’s options? Will the March Budget shift the dial? What are the big moments to look out for in Parliament before polling day? What could we learn from local and...

Spectacular by-elections. The Covid Inquiry. The privileges committee report into Boris Johnson.. War in the Middle East. An outbreak of civil war in the Conservative party. It has been quite some year. So how did Rishi Sunak's pledges work out? Has Keir Starmer done enough to convince the electorate? Is the economy on the mend? Are public services on the decline? Is Brexit still getting done? And how will global affairs impact on British politics? For this final episode of the year, the...

Matt Hancock, Dominic Cummings, Rishi Sunak, Patrick Vallance, Chris Whitty and, of course, Boris Johnson have all relived – and tried to justify – the decisions taken by government during the pandemic. So as the year draws to a close, The Expert Factor takes stock of progress in the Covid Inquiry and whether the questions being asked – and the answers being given – are helping to explain how Johnson’s No10 functioned during this crisis. What have we learned so far? Who has given a good...

Satisfaction with the healthcare system is at its lowest level since 1997 – but the issue has been consistently rising as a priority for voters over the past two years. Waiting lists are at record levels. The damage caused by the Covid pandemic continues to be felt across the NHS. More money has been thrown at staffing, but productivity continues to lag. So what is the answer to the NHS’s problems? How do you pay for a bigger workforce – and how can it be done while simultaneously reducing...

This month marks four years since the 2019 general election, when Boris Johnson bulldozed his way to a Conservative majority with his promise to ‘get Brexit done’ – and Labour sank to its worst election result since 1935. But so much has changed since then. We’ve had a global pandemic. The partygate scandal. Two changes of prime minister. A huge economic downturn. War has returned to Europe. And for the last two years, Labour has held a poll lead over the Conservatives of around 20 points. So...

Education. Education. Education. General election slogans often zero in on education, and now Rishi Sunak has made building a “world class education system” as one of his top priorities. But just how well are English schools performing? Has enough to been done to make up for learning lost during the pandemic? Do Labour and the Conservatives disagree on education policy? And what can be done to fix our crumbling schools and recruit more teachers? In this episode, the Expert Factor take a deep...

Rishi Sunak and his chancellor Jeremy Hunt have spent weeks poring over the books, squinting at the balance sheets, and crunching the numbers in the hope of sharing good economic news with the country – and setting out some policies – which excite Conservative MPs and entice the electorate. Yes, the wait for the Autumn Statement is nearly over. So what might the numbers reveal? How much room for manoeuvre do Sunak and Hunt have? Are tax cuts likely – and should they be? And how much do these...

For decades governments have grappled with immigration – arguably it was one of the key reasons for the 2016 Brexit vote. But what has “taking back control” meant for the UK’s immigration statistics? How might numbers change in the years ahead? To what extent does the UK need immigration to bolster its labour market? Where does the row over small boats fit in? And where are we in terms of voter attitudes? In this episode, the Expert Factor team take a deep dive into one of the most...

Climate change used to be that rarest of things in British politics – an issue over which there was broad interparty consensus. That consensus saw Ed Miliband oversee the passing of the Climate Change Act in 2008, committing the UK to an 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050; Theresa May enshrining of the target of net zero in law; and Boris Johnson going further still, increasing the target for 2030 reductions to 68%. But recently we have seen a divergence from this consensus,...