The Jan WASDE was bearish for corn and soybeans but bullish for wheat. Turner's Take is changing it's name to Grain & Oilseed with Craig Turner in order to fully integrate with StoneX. For the free weekly newsletter that has supporting information for the podcast, please check out Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner newsletter (https://subscribe.stonex.com/grains_oilseeds_with_craig_turner). or trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Grains & Oilseeds Premium...

The Jan WASDE is Friday and we have some thoughts on corn, wheat, and soybeans. Turner's Take is changing it's name to Grain & Oilseed with Craig Turner in order to fully integrate with StoneX. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium (https://subscribe.stonex.com/turners-take-premium). Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @Turners_Take (https://twitter.com/turners_take)CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX...

SRW exports are larger than HRW for the first time I can remember. Corn looks rangebound and soybeans are tight. We go over grains, energy and why money flow might be coming back into the commodity markets again. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium (https://subscribe.stonex.com/turners-take-premium). Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @Turners_Take (https://twitter.com/turners_take)CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER &...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 375 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast Newly elected libertarian Argentine President Javier Milei's government is acting quick on campaign promises.  Argentina will cut the value of their Peso by 50% as part of their "shock therapy" to try to rescue their failing economic system.  Economy Minister Luis Caputo also announced deep cuts to public spending,...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 374 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast I'll be at the Nebraska Ag Expo next week with StoneX at booth #3100.  If you are there please come on by and say hello! The balance sheets for corn and canola are concerning.  Wheat may be tight for another five months but a good winter wheat crop in the N. Hemisphere solves a lot of tightness in that market.  Soybeans...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 373 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast Lower CPI and Core CPI readings have traders excited about the stock market again.  Better inflation numbers could lead to the Fed holding rates steady as opposed to a quarter point increase by the end of the year.  Crude oil is lower on better US production and lower demand out of China.  Natural gas production in...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 372 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The Federal Reserve kept interest rates elevated after their meeting on Wednesday but traders are more optimistic for rate cuts in 2024 than they were before the meeting. Stocks have rallied over the past couple of days and the Fed Funds futures are pricing in interest rate cuts starting next summer.  Corn is range...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 370 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The funds are now short corn, wheat, and soybeans.  US harvest is nearly 50% complete for corn and soybeans.  Canada is wrapping up canola and spring wheat.  Demand is poor and fund managers are building short positions in corn, wheat, and now soybeans.  If we are going to see a post-harvest rally, N. American...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 369 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but they intend to keep rates above 5% through 2024.  Mexico is now the US' largest trading partner, with Canada a very close second.  China is a distant third and that is not helping demand for grains and oilseeds. Crude oil continues to rally even in the face of...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 368 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The USDA's September WASDE report was bearish for corn and soybeans vs expectations.  The US wheat numbers were neutral but Global Ending Stocks for 2023-24 was bullish.  This resulted in high protein wheat rallying after the WASDE while corn and soybeans sold off.  Corn likely finds a seasonal low over the next...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 367 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this episode we talk energy and ag. Crude oil is testing resistance and could break out if demand stays high as days of supply trends lower. We also take a look at our new crop corn, soybeans, and wheat balance sheets.  Below are the charts we reference in the podcast as well as the balance sheets. Make sure you...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 366 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The Pro Farmer crop tour concluded this week and they are projecting corn yields at 172 bpa and soybeans 49.7.  That puts corn around 1.9 billion bu ending stocks with a 13% stock/usage ratio.  That is an adequately supplied corn market.  The drop in soybean yield puts ending stocks around 175mm bu and a 4%...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 365 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast Michael Burry, the central figure of The Big Short, is reportedly placing a big bet on a stock market crash.  This is the same trader who called the sub prime crisis.  We start off the podcast speculating on what is making Michael Burry so bearish. Then we switch to the grain markets and talk about why we are long...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 364 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The August WASDE report was slightly bullish corn, soybeans, and spring wheat while bearish winter wheat.  The USDA reduced the Canadian canola crop to 19 MMT but the trade was probably looking for something closer to 18 MMT.  There was not bullish surprise so the path of lease resistance is lower due to improved...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 363 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast Crude oil stocks drew down 17 million bushels in the latest inventory report his week, the largest on record.  OPEC+ is happy to keep supplies low and let crude trade over $80. The US does not have excess SPR to help lower oil prices, and in fact the US now needs to by crude to start replenishing emergency...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 362 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The Fed raised interest rates again as inflation cools and the labor market stays strong. The latest set of economic reports suggest a recession could be adverted with better chances of economic growth in 2024. Corn looks bearish on the balance sheets while soybeans, canola, and wheat look tighter.  The big...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 361 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this episode we dive deep into the grain markets. We first talk about the July WASDE and what the acreage change means for soybeans and corn.  Then we loop at the weather markets and how it impacts canola and spring wheat in Canada and corn and soybeans in the US.  Finally, we get into the Black Sea and what it...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 360 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this episode we go over the June 30 acreage report and what it means for grain and oilseed prices over the next six to twelve months.  Oilseeds will be tight.  Soybean and canola oil should have strong demand.  Corn and SRW wheat will expand stocks, KC wheat should be tight, and the jury is still out on MPLS. ...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 359 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast After a month long weather market we now have rain back in the forecast. The CBOT broke fairly hard this week on profit taking, overbought conditions, and precipitation in the forecast across the Midwest.  We go over yield scenarios, demand estimates, and possible price expectations for the 2023-24 crop year. Make...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 358 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this podcast we go over the Federal Reserves decision to pause interest rate hikes and what they may be looking for now that rates are over 5%.  We then talk about the energy markets and why crude likely remains rangebound for the rest of the year.  Finally, we talk grains and oilseeds and what to make of this...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 357 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this podcast we go over China's poor demand for commodities, the Federal Reserve's view on interest rates, and what we are looking for in the grain and oilseed markets. We review the June WASDE report and what to look for going forward. Make sure you take a listen to this week's Turner's Take Podcast! CLICK...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 356 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast US Congress has passed the new debt ceiling limit while also making spending cuts. The market should view this as bullish.  The hot and dry June forecasts are bullish factors for grain and oilseeds.  On the other hand the expansion of new crop ending stocks combined with poor global demand has been bearish.  Yields...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 355 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The WASDE was bullish high protein wheat (KC and MPLS) and bearish corn/SRW wheat.  Soybeans and canola were fairly neutral.  In this episode we go over the recent Federal Reserve rate increase and why the market is pricing in a rate cut by the end of the year.  We also talk about possible price ranges for the...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 354 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The CBOT is finding support after two weeks of selling.  HRW (KC) Wheat is leading the charge higher.  Recent rains in the the western belt did not improve wheat prospects as much as the trade initially thought.  The CBOT as a whole was oversold and due for a rally.  The May WASDE is next week and the USDA will...

Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 353 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast US Q1 GDP growth is only 1.1% vs expectations of 2%.  Businesses are cutting inventories, jobs, and higher interest rates limit new capital investments.  The Fed will meet next week and the market is looking for a quarter point interest rate increase.  The poor economic numbers and expectations of a recession...