Today's episode features a discussion from 2023 with reknowned independent analyst Benedict Evans (formerly a16z and Mosaic Ventures) about his predictions and frameworks for AI, VR/AR, Crypto and blockchain, the cloud, automation, and more. AI scout and podcast host Nathan Labenz (The Cognitive Revolution's host) joined for the last 20 minutes to deepen the discussion on AI. Crush your 2024 goals and learn a new language with Babbel - get 60% off at Babbel.com/torenburg 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- SPONSORS: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/torenburg 💥 Access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at [email protected]. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 10X Capital Podcast If you like Turpentine VC, check out our show The 10x Capital Podcast with David Weisburd, where David talks to the investors behind the investors -- LINKS: Benedict's website (featuring his 2024 presentation): https://www.ben-evans.com/ Benedict's podcast with Toni Cowan-Brown: https://another-podcast.simplecast.com/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro and Preview (00:26) Predicting Tech Trends (02:20) Esco Model (03:42) Deployment of Older Ideas (05:39) Netflix: A TV Company, Not a Tech Company (07:06) Software's Impact on Different Industries (11:43) Regulation and Technology in Healthcare, Education, and Housing (13:51) Direct-to-Consumer (15:16) Overestimating and Underestimating Change (16:15) Blockchain and VR: Still Early Days (17:54) Sponsor: Babbel | Squad (20:55) "Killer App" Fallacy (23:37) Web 3.0 and Crypto: Overhyped and Underappreciated (28:07] Decentralization and the "Can't Be Evil" Thesis (30:05) The Limits of Decentralization (42:54) Defining the Metaverse (47:30) The Impossibility of True Portability (49:25) Consumer Surplus and Business Models (1:00:43) AI: Unbundling Jobs and Bundling Apps (1:05:15) Vin's Paradox and the Automation Cycle (1:09:40) The Speed of Technological Change (1:13:15) Deploying New Technologies Takes Time (1:14:56) Questions for the Future