Predictions: 2023 —RSJ As promised last week, let’s get going with some predictions for 2023. Pranay likes to keep them very specific (for a good reason), while I get away with broad bets. Global Economy The problem with predicting anything on how things will unfold globally is the random big event that upends all forecasts. This has happened in the last three years. The impact of the pandemic waves and the Ukraine war is yet to play out fully. By themselves, it makes for difficult terrain for forecasts. I’m hoping we don’t have another such event during the year.   #1 The trend of securing your supply chain for critical products will get stronger. Look, it is difficult to disentangle from the globally integrated supply chains that have been a feature of the economic model since the end of the Cold War. But it is clear to most large economies that on issues that concern national security, it will be foolhardy to not plan for worst-case scenarios any longer. And national security could mean anything, really, but I can see on energy and key technology, nations will opt for more secure supply chains with watertight bilateral partnerships than be at the mercy of distributed, multilateral chains. I won’t go as far as calling it ‘de-globalisation’ yet, but this ‘gated globalisation’ is a trend that’s here to stay. What this will mean in concrete terms is there will be a gathering of pace on bilateral treaties among larger economies on these issues that reduces dependence on China or Russia. For India, there are a couple of issues here. How to continue to balance the purchase of oil from Russia for its energy security without inviting sanctions from the west? It has managed this well in the last year. The other issue is to find alternatives to Russian hardware for its defence machinery without rubbing it the wrong way. We have batted for free trades on these pages for a long time. So, it is concerning to see this retreat, but history has shown over time, geopolitics trumps geoeconomics.  #2 The fears of elevated inflation and a recession in the US in 2023 are overblown. The recession is due, but it will come a bit later I have made the point here earlier too. The Fed has gone overboard on inflation targeting with more rate cuts than necessary and not waiting for their impact to come through. The moderation of inflation in the past few months (though at 3.6 per cent, it is still higher than the target) suggests that the Fed has been partly successful and it should continue to remain hawkish. I am not so sure. It takes time for rate hikes to start impacting demand, and my suspicion is that the current moderation in inflation was due in any case. The impact on rate hikes on subduing demand and growth is yet to play out. My view is that as supply chain issues ease up with China opening up, energy demand going up and the US continuing to be at almost full employment, we might have a 2023 where for the most part, the US inflation will be higher than target, Fed will continue to remain hawkish, and the growth will hold up. This will mean the real risk of recession will be more toward the end of the year than now.  #3 Big Tech will continue to be under the cosh  Three problems look to exacerbate in the tech space in 2023. First, the valuation of ad-driven economic models and the insane optimism about the distributed ledger, crypto, DAO or independent sovereigns (yeah, remember that) will abate. A lot of value has been destroyed in the last year (esp in public markets), and I still think there’s more to go in the private market valuations. This correction will weigh on markets, fund raises and investments into startups. Second, global markets will shrink for Big Tech as more countries will place restrictions on how deep they will allow them to own commerce or payment infrastructure. I half expect India to gradually move all payment and eCommerce arms of Big Tech into a structure that’s domestically controlled a