Prediction Time —RSJ In a year when countries as diverse as India, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Taiwan, Pakistan and Palau go for their elections, it is tempting to go for an overarching theme for the year while looking ahead. Unfortunately, like these aforementioned elections and the many others that will see about 50 per cent of the human population exercise their democratic choice, there seems to be only a messy mix of political signals emerging from them. Illiberal forces are rising in some places, and autocrats are rubber-stamping their authority in others. Democracy is blooming afresh in a few, while the trends of deglobalisation and closed borders are resonating among others. Of course, there are the wars old and new and, maybe, a few more round the corner to complicate any attempt at a broad narrative for the world. To add to the woes of anyone trying to write a piece like this, the economic macros globally look volatile and inchoate. There is increasing talk of a soft landing of the US economy while the EU and the UK stare at another lost year. Depending on who you speak to, China has either put its economic issues behind it and is ready to charge back with its investment in future technologies like AI, EVs and hi-tech manufacturing, or it is at the “Japan moment” of the late 80s. Japan, on the other hand, is itself having a brief moment of revival, and no one knows if it will have legs or if it is yet another false dawn. It is foolhardy to purvey macro forecasts in this environment. But then this newsletter won’t write itself. No? So, I guess the best course then is to make more specific predictions instead of taking big swings and hoping those come true while the macros swing wildly. This will also satisfy Pranay’s pet peeve about generic predictions that I mentioned in the last newsletter. So, let me get going with 10 somewhat specific predictions for next year. * President Biden will decide sometime in early February that he cannot lead the Democratic Party to power in the 2024 elections. He will opt out of the race and give possibly the most well-backed Democrat, financially and otherwise, a really short window of four months to clinch the nomination. In a way, this will be the best option for his party. If he continued to run for the 2024 elections, it would have been apparent to many in the electorate that they are risking a President who won’t last the full term. If he had opted out earlier, the long-drawn primary process would have led to intense infighting among the many factions of the party, eventually leading to fratricide or a Trump-like populist to emerge perhaps. A narrow window will allow the Party to back an establishment figure and reduce the fraternal bloodletting. Who will emerge from this is anyone’s guess. But whoever it might be, if (and it is a big if) they have to come up against Trump, they will lose. To me, the only way Trump doesn’t become the next President is if he isn’t on the ballot. And the only way that looks possible is if he loses his legal battles. Otherwise, you will see a second Trump term which will be worse than the first one.  * There’s way too much confidence about the Fed having piloted a ‘safe landing’ for the US economy despite the many odds that were stacked against it. I think this is fundamentally misplaced. The fiscal deficit is unsustainable, and much of the soft landing is thanks to it. The GDP growth has been supported by an almost doubling of the federal fiscal deficit. This won’t last. The higher rates that haven’t yet led to any real string of bankruptcies or asset bubble collapses will begin to make an impact. The geopolitical risks that have only been aggravated in the last 12 months and the increasing protectionism worldwide will make it difficult to sustain growth at 2023 levels. My view is that the real landing will be in 2024, and it won’t be soft. * China will get more adventurous geopolitically as it we