First some unfinished business from the Submarine Institute of Australia conference. The Chief of Navy asks why aren’t there more positive stories about Collins submarines? The reason is quite simple: because you won’t tell us anything. This goes for the other services as well – you cannot complain about lack of coverage if you deliberately suppress the release of information. That’s something that Defence Minister Richard Marles knows well. It’s the definition of hypocrisy: say you are in...

Our previous analysis of the US Presidential election was wrong – and by a wide margin. Obviously there’s a huge level of anger, resentment and frustration in the American system. Donald Trump has won a bigger victory than in 2016 – and the consequences for Australia are unknown. Any Australian politician assuming it’s business as usual runs the risk of making a major mistake. What do we do if Donald Trump jacks up the cost of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines by a lot? Has anyone in...

We start with Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy at the NPC last week and lots of stuff about extra missiles for the ADF. That’s all well and good – but these things are either fully imported or, at best, manufactured under license here with a few local components. There are no longer any sovereign Australian IP in weapons – we seem to have collectively given up on the idea of designing any ourselves. The latest from the mess that is AUKUS Pillar One. Then a few words about the shock...

In this episode we have some truly stunning – and worrying – information that the rate of US nuclear powered submarine construction is slowing down, not speeding up. The information is on the public record and comes from the CEO of Electric Boat, Phebe Novakovic in a briefing for shareholders. The problem is with the supply chain – companies manufacturing critical components cannot keep up with the required rate and as a consequence both the Columbia class SSBNs and Virginia SSNs will be...

Last week saw a bit of extra good news for Ukraine with the announcement that Australia will donate 49 M1A1 Abrams Main Battle Tanks that are being retired from service. An extra 10 Abrams will be available for spare parts, or they could be returned to a usable condition. No matter how you look at this, it’s a significant contribution because while the tanks are a bit long in the tooth they are still a formidable capability, particularly against the ageing junk that Russia is now forced to...

We start with a Canberra bubble story – but one with national implications – the strange tale of the former Chief of Staff to Defence Minister Richard Marles. The CoS of a Minister plays a vital role in the daily running of the office and has additional important duties such as liaising with the Department, other Ministers and various stakeholders. Without a competent CoS in place an office rapidly becomes dysfunctional. Then a few more words about the unfolding disaster of SEA 3000, which is...

There are 5 ship designers in the running for the SEA 3000 General Purpose Frigate contract – and 2 of them are from South Korea. In this episode we discuss Hanwha Ocean, based on a visit to their extremely impressive facility at Okpo near Busan on the south coast of the country. However, we could not discuss their Australian bid because the government has banned companies from speaking with the media under threat that if they do so their participation in the competition will be instantly...

Why does the Australian government show so little enthusiasm for increasing the amount of aid going to Ukraine? Doing so is overwhelmingly popular with about 80% of Australians in favour. However, it looks like the government and our officials are doing just enough to tick a few boxes. At a minimum a single person with a lot of authority needs to be put in charge of the aid program – and they need to get moving. Then a media trip to a factory in the Queensland town of Maryborough that...

We return to some favourite themes: nuclear powered submarines; Taipan helicopters; and aid for Ukraine. But before that a few words about the Middle East and what looks to be a further deterioration in an already bad situation. Everyone shares blame, but it’s worth noting that major demographic changes mean that Israel is different from the country in the 1970s that many of us found inspirational. It must occur to people that there are some in Israel who don’t want peace with Hamas but will...

This is the Land Forces exhibition special feature with some random highlights from the show last week. These included an uncrewed 8-wheeled armoured ground vehicle enabled by AI and designed by BAE Systems to operate with conventional forces. Also SPEE3D, an Australian company using additive manufacturing to undertake in-field repairs. Despite international success – including sending units to Ukraine – do you think the Australian Army has bought any? A few words about Hanwha, the South...

The government and the Australian Submarine Agency are up to their usual tricks of minimising scrutiny by playing media favourites. Not only is this wrong in principle it’s a symptom of deeper problems in the ASA – and there will be a lot more coming out about that in the next few days. People who know what they are doing enjoy having their ideas challenged and it is generally the poor performers who prefer to hide. And with that in mind, our squabble with Army over the destruction of the...

Unusually, we can start with two pieces of positive news. On August 22, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced that the government will spend $850 million on a factory in Newcastle that will produce Naval Strike Missiles and Joint Strike Missiles. These come from Norwegian company Kongsberg and will drastically improve the anti-ship capabilities of the ADF. This follows a decision to also manufacture GMLRS rounds locally for Army’s HIMARS launchers. After a slow start the GWEO is...

The government has announced, in its usual over-the-top manner, reforms to the export licensing system between Australia, the US and the UK. While this is fine in principle, it is based on an absolute lie, namely that Australia exports $5 billion worth of military technology to those partner countries. This is a joke. We sell some F-35 components to the US and almost nothing to the UK. The true figure is likely to be one twentieth of the government’s claim. At the same time, former Minister...

There’s more AUKUS stupidity to talk about, with now a secret political deal with the US and UK to be factored in. It is so secret that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese doesn’t seem to have any idea what it’s about. There’s speculation that it could compel Australia to go to war with China over Taiwan – but that issue is more nuanced than most people understand. Or could it be about the storage in Australia of high level nuclear waste from other countries – which seems irrelevant since we will...

A poor start from new CDF Admiral David Johnson, who told ABC News Breakfast television that every day sees an increase in ADF capability.  The opposite appears to be the case with Navy in particular going backwards, followed by the Army – and for the next 10 years the RAAF isn’t receiving anything new thanks to budget restrictions.  Spotted during Exercise Talisman Sabre – Defence Minister Richard Marles riding in an Italian NH90 helicopter, which is almost identical to the 45 Australian...

We have been at the Indian Ocean Defence and Security (IODS) conference in Perth – so plenty of naval things to talk about. First, ASA Head VADM Jonathon Mead refreshingly and honestly said that there were many obstacles to overcome before nuclear-powered submarines could be delivered, a nice change from the previous rhetoric that everything was fine. Speaking with well qualified industry people from the US and UK, the consensus is that Australia is already a decade behind where we need to be...

There are no new procurement disasters to talk about, so let’s do some big picture stuff. Why is it that two former Prime Ministers, one Labor and one Liberal – Malcolm Turnbull and Paul Keating – think that AUKUS Pillar One is a thoroughly bad idea, but Anthony Albanese and Scott Morrison are uncritically boosting it? Could it be explained by the different backgrounds they all have and whether or not they are able to apply critical thinking to major projects? Successfully completing an...

We have to start with some words about the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and what that might mean for Australia. It almost certainly now means the re-election of someone who is profoundly pro-Russian, anti-European and with an ambivalent attitude towards the Asia-Pacific region. Australian politicians are so in thrall of the US that they constantly drone on about shared values, which are actually few and far between. The US remains our strongest security partner but we will have to...

We start with an overview of recent and ongoing Defence procurement disasters – not to bore people but as a reminder that there is something seriously wrong with how the system functions. Defence Minister Richard Marles continues to think that everything is fine when in fact it is not. Another concern is the amount of misinformation coming from Defence officials – and we aren’t talking about the occasional slip of the tongue. Testimony has been given to Senate Estimates that is just plain...

Firstly another interview with Defence Minister Richard Marles, from which we learned nothing useful. More about the RAAF $10 billion error in not considering the Embraer C390 as the replacement for the C-130J fleet. As several countries have discovered, the C390 is less expensive to acquire, costs less to support – and flies faster and further with more cargo than a C-130J. We quote extensively from the publicly available Dutch evaluation of the two aircraft, which conclusively concludes...

Greetings from Brazil, where we are checking out the Embraer KC-390 twin jet airlifter. It can carry more cargo than a C-130J a lot further and a lot faster. Yet Australia is spending almost $10 billion for 20 C-130Js without the benefit of any sort of competitive evaluation. But it’s actually far worse than that because we are getting fewer C-130Js for more money than originally indicated – a major scandal that has been sitting in plain sight for more than a year and which has received no...

Before we say some more about the General Purpose Frigate debacle let’s unpack the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine debacle and the revelation in Senate Estimates hearings that we are making two almost identical $4.7 billion payments to US and UK companies without a refund clause. Mind you that information had to be dragged out of ASA Head, VADM Jonathon Mead, who refused to answer several questions about a refund or clawback clause. Clearly there isn’t one. Imagine if it were revealed that...

Episode 50 but there’s no time for self-congratulations because there’s more Defence incompetence to talk about – and top of the list is the General Purpose Frigate. In this country we are told nothing, but speaking in the UK the Head of RAN Capability explained that, yes, we will be purchasing an existing design with no changes whatsoever. None. However, this new design is also expected to comply with Australian regulations and be compatible with existing Australian and allied combat...

In this episode we have a bit more to say about the ridiculous levels of secrecy surrounding military projects in this country. In comparison, the US tries to be helpful, as evidenced by a couple of recent visits, including by Lieutenant General Steven Sklenka from the Marine Corps. Also a look at the recently passed Securing Australia’s Military Secrets (SAMS) legislation, which is obviously written by lawyers who don’t know what they are doing. No wonder so few people want to join the...