EP 81: Q4 2023 Insight, The Shifting Sands of the Global Economy | 5th October 2023
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Description
Join us on Beyond the Benchmark as we review the Q4 2023 Insights document.  We've been pleasantly surprised by the resilience of certain economies this year, especially the US, Brazil, and India. Our team, including Paul Temperton, Stefan Gerlach, Daniel Murray, GianLuigi Mandruzzato, Joaquin Thul, and Sam Jochim, discuss these economic patterns and their implications. As we navigate the current landscape, we also focus on the return of real yields in fixed-income markets and speculate on where the Fed might land when the dust settles.  In the next segment of our conversation, we focus on the intriguing dynamics of equity market volatility, the potential for a shift in bond prices to equity prices, and what a Fed rate cut might imply. We also reflect on the historical methods that governments have employed to reduce public debt and the challenges associated with achieving this without resorting to financial repression or inflation. As we explore the rising deficits in the U.S., we consider how this might impact the attractiveness of the dollar and who's currently investing in US treasuries.  In the final segment of our discussion, we turn our gaze to the UK and German economies, evaluating the recovery timeline of the UK housing market and the issues facing the German economy. From the need for increased defense spending and digitalization to the outdated traditional German growth model, we cover it all. Wrapping up, we also contemplate the Eurozone's trade deficit with China and the potential implications of China's slowing economy. From real estate in China to India's GDP, we offer an in-depth analysis of these global economic trends. Our host, Moz Afzal: https://bit.ly/31XbkTR Our guests: Daniel Murray https://bit.ly/3tNPXSK Paul Temperton http://tier.co.uk/ Joaquin Thul https://bit.ly/3d7QWGl GianLuigi Mandruzzato https://bit.ly/3daScaX Stefan Gerlach, Chief Economist at EFG bit.ly/3mz6t8V Sam Jochim, Economist: https://bit.ly/3XLsZKv EFGAM: https://www.newcapital.com/ Important disclaimers The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, and past performance is no indicator of future performance. Investment products may be subject to investment risks involving, but not limited to, possible loss of all or part of the principal invested.  This document does not constitute and shall not be construed as a prospectus, advertisement, public offering or placement of, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or solicit, any investment, security, other financial instrument or other product or service. It is not intended to be a final representation of the terms and conditions of any investment, security, other financial instrument or other product or service. This document is for general information only and is not intended as investment advice or any other specific recommendation as to any particular course of action or inaction. The information in this document does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the recipient. You should seek your own professional advice suitable to your particular circumstances prior to making any investment or if you are in doubt as to the information in this document. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no member of the EFG group represents or warrants its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Any opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. This document may contain personal opinions which do not necessarily reflect the position of any member of the EFG group. To the fullest extent permissible by law, no member of the EFG group shall be responsible for the consequences of any errors or omissions herein, or reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein, and each member of the EFG group expressly disclaims any liability, including (without limitation) liability for incidental or consequen
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