Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research   Sumati Semavoine-Jain,Sustainability Research Analyst  While 2022 was about uniting and goal-setting in biodiversity, upcoming years will be about follow-through and execution. We present our views on how COP15, the biennial UN Biodiversity Conference, will translate into policy and market-driven changes in the near future, and steps required for significant progress.  BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 17...

Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research   Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  In 2023, we expect global green bond supply to recover and potentially exceed 2021 volumes as transition remains a priority, and as investors return to bond markets. The 2023 increase will mostly come from Europe and Asia we think. ESG investing is becoming more thematic. For green bonds, this means investors will look for more diversity in the use of proceeds, and apply more scrutiny...

Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research   Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  As we concluded in Biodiversity: The price and value of natural capital, progress in measuring and correcting externalities is under way. The COP15 dedicated summit on biodiversity is finally taking place this month and will set the bar for the coming decade. We present a biodiversity basket in the fixed income space that gathers our high conviction issuers, committed to reversing...

Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research   Megan Dale, Sustainability Research Analyst  Trevor and Megan discuss the key topics at COP27, and how they see this shaping sustainable finance markets. They analyse what was in line with expectations, what was not, and what to expect going forward.  For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to...

Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research   Megan Dale, Sustainability Research Analyst  Trevor and Megan discuss the key topics at COP27, which will take place over the next fortnight. In particular, they highlight: which emitters will make more ambitious climate targets (or not), why the adaptation will be a focal point, and which different initiatives may help to fund these goals.  For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific...

With  Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US | BNP Paribas Securities Corp Andrew Schneider,  Economist, US   | BNP Paribas Securities Corp Thomas Rosenkoetter,  Head of Government Affairs |  BNP Paribas Securities Corp In this podcast, Chief US Economist Carl Riccadonna,  Head of US Government Affairs Tom Rosenkoetter and Senior US Economist Andy Schneider discuss what’s at stake based on the likely results of the US midterm elections.   For more information, please refer to...

With:  Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research   Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 17 October 2022)    Trevor and Sumati are back to discuss biodiversity, and more specifically, how it can be addressed within equity portfolios.  Biodiversity remains a minor determinant of corporate ESG scores, and there is no readily available single metric to monitor a company’s effect on nature. Identifying investment...

With:  Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research   Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 14 September 2022)    Underpricing of biodiversity has caused unsustainable depletion of natural resources, with limited costs to harmful industries. But progress to measure and correct externalities is under way. Investors should start mapping their portfolios’ dependencies and impacts on nature, just as they monitor greenhouse gas...

With:  Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research  Spyros Andreopoulos, Senior Economist, Europe  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 5 September 2022)   What does the net zero transition mean for inflation and how could renewable energy help to cool down prices.  For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to...

With:  Luiz Eduardo Peixoto, Economist, Emerging Markets Mohamed Abdelmeguid, Economist, MENA BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 24 June 2022)  Egypt is at a critical juncture as talks with the IMF progress amid market access constraints and a challenging external environment. We explore the prospects of an IMF deal, along with financing options and the central bank’s reaction function.   For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For...

With:  Gustavo Arruda, Head of Emerging Markets Research, Global Markets Latam Laiz Carvalho, Economist, Brazil BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 02 June 2022)  Inflation has been a Global issue. Latin America has historical experience on inflation. In this episode we will talk about the Brazil experience. The main policy actions to contain inflation pressures, and what should we look going forward.  For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com...

With:  Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA,  Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 7 June  2022)  The USD’s failure to weaken following Fed lift-off reflects the high level of uncertainty around inflation and the fed funds path, causing high volatility in rate expectations, we argue.  The spillover from higher rates vol to FX vol has made FX carry trades less attractive, in turn preventing high beta currencies from...

With:  Gustavo Arruda, Head of Emerging Markets Research, Global Markets Latam Felipe Klein, Economist, Chile and Colombia BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 27 May 2022)  Inflation has been a Global issue. Latin America has long experience on inflation. In this episode we will talk about the Colombia experience. The main policy actions to contain inflation pressures and what should we look going forward.    For more information, please refer to...

With:  Gustavo Arruda, Head of Emerging Markets Research, Global Markets Latam Florencia Vazquez, Economist, Argentina BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 26 May 2022)  Inflation has been a Global issue. Latin America has long experience on inflation. In this episode we will talk about the Argentina experience. We discuss the main policy actions to contain inflation pressures and  what should we look going forward.     For more information, please refer to...

With:  Gustavo Arruda, Head of Emerging Markets Research, Global Markets Latam Pamela Díaz Loubet, Economist, Mexico BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 25 May 2022)  Inflation has been a Global issue. Latin America has long experience on inflation. In this episode we will talk about the Mexico experience. The main policy actions to contain inflation pressures and what should we look going forward.    For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com...

With:  Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA, Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy Ankit Gheedia, CFA, Head of Equity & Derivatives Strategy, Europe BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 24 May 2022)    Challenging the stock market adage, Sell in May, go away and come back on St Leger’s day, European equities have enjoyed a seasonal bounce from May into June in recent years, due, in our view, to investors closing their short positions on European equities before the less liquid...

With Jason Lui, Head of East Asia Strategy Ju Wang, Head of Greater China FX & Rates Strategy   BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 13 May 2022)  While the recent RMB weakness bears some resemblance to the H2 2015 devaluation cycle, we believe the Chinese equities should fare better than previous RMB depreciation cycles. We expect the RMB to act as a shock-absorber rather than constrain macro policy, with a weaker RMB eventually helping to loosen monetary conditions.   For...

With:  Marcelo Carvalho, Head of Global Emerging Markets Research   Luiz Eduardo Peixoto, Economist, Emerging Markets BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 05 May  2022)  The likelihood of significant disruption, or even a halt in, oil and gas flows from Russia to Europe has risen substantially, in our view, as the Russia–Ukraine war drags on. We expect the gas supply to EU nations rejecting Russia’s new ‘roubles-for-gas’ scheme to be affected, with Gazprom’s flows to these countries...

With:  Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist  Spyros Andreopoulos, Senior Economist, Europe BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 04 May 2022)  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is inflicting a terrible cost in terms of lives lost and human suffering. While the war is still ongoing, in this podcast we consider how its impact might reshape the global economy in the years to come.      For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For...

With:  Calvin Tse,  Head of Americas Developed Markets Strategy Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 27 April 2022)  With hiking cycles under way in the G10, we look into which rates matters most for FX   For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com   For country-specific disclaimers and legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf  

With:  Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360 Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist  Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 05 April 2022)   With less than a week to go until the first round of the election on Sunday 10 April, we think the chances of a surprise outcome have risen.   Opinion polls continue to point to the first round resulting in a repeat of the 2017 face-off between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.   But...

With Jason Lui, Head of East Asia Strategy Hiroshi Shiraishi, Senior Economist, Japan  BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 31 March 2022)    Under the risk scenario of persistent downward pressure on the JPY and upward pressure on interest rates, we would expect the Bank of Japan to widen its yield curve control (YCC) on the 10y JGB yield to +/-0.5%. However, we do not expect such a move unless USDJPY rises above 125 and threatens to challenge 130.  For more information, please...

With:  Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA,  Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 28 March  2022)  In this podcast we explore foreign investor buying of US assets. We find that most debt inflows come from the Eurozone and Japan. For institutional investors, we expect a slowing in eurozone investor buying of USD fixed income. For foreign holdings of US equities, any rebalancing lower of US equity exposure could result in...

With Jason Lui, Head of East Asia Strategy Ju Wang, Head of Greater China FX & Rates Strategy  BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 24 March 2022)    Diverging monetary policy between China and US is the dominant theme for China’s FX and rates. We expect the RMB to be resilient in Q1, but weaken to 6.60 into year-end on carry compression, slower exports and rising outbound investments into HK. China rates remain a rare shelter in a world of high inflation....

With Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist Amarjot Sidhu, Economist, UK and Europe BNP Paribas London Branch  | Global Markets (Recorded 24 March 2022)    With the economic picture weakening, there is an increasing focus on fiscal policy and we discuss why this is the case in this podcast. In particular, we look at how governments have been providing support, whether the current shock changes the fiscal debate in Europe and the implications of all of this for central banks....