On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Stephen Brown, our Deputy Chief North America Economist, give their take on what Jerome Powell said to the Fed’s annual gathering at Jackson Hole.  Neil and Stephen assess the likelihood of the Fed's easing cycle beginning with a 50 basis point cut, look ahead to the coming week's inflation and consumption data, and also take in Kamala Harris' nomination speech at the Democratic National Convention.  Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, discussed signs of improvement in China-India ties and what they mean in a global economy that's fracturing into US and China-led economic blocs.  Referenced in this episode: US Economic Weekly: 25bp or 50bp?US CRE: Time to go shopping for retail assetsWhat Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturingKey Issues: The fracturing of the global economyWeek-ahead Calendar & Forecasts