In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing addresses the White House announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese goods and what that signals about the direction of the global economic system. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and explains what to expect from the coming week’s UK CPI release. Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is also on the show, talking to David Wilder about this month’s recovery in US equities, our no...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the latest signals from the Bank of England and that Q1 UK GDP report mean in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. He also previews the coming week’s US inflation data, tells David Wilder why EM monetary easing will need to slow and puts the US current account deficit in context.  Also on the show, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams talks to Leah Fahy from our China team about what his analysis of Chinese auto...

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks a tumultuous week that ended on a high. April's soft payrolls report may have given the market much-needed evidence that US disinflationary forces are gathering, but will that sway the Fed? And what can investors expect from the Bank of England this coming week?   Neil also frames Xi Jinping’s trip to Europe against a backdrop of rising global trade tensions and previews our...

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews the coming week’s Fed meeting, tackles market talk that the next move on the US policy rate could be up, addresses an intriguing report about Fed independence and decries the absence of a grown-up conversation around fiscal commitments.  Julian Evans-Pritchard, our China Economics head, is also on the show to talk about what he picked up about the true state of the Chinese economy during a visit to...

In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing assesses just how much the global inflation picture has really changed in the wake of that US March CPI print. He talks to David Wilder about which central banks are likely to cut when, previews a busy week of economic data and explains why a strong dollar isn't as much of a problem for the global economy as many think. And, in the wake of retaliatory Israeli strikes on Iran, he explains...

Janet Yellen lent official voice to resurgent global worries about the threat of Chinese overcapacity when she pointedly criticised Beijing’s overinvestment and underpowered consumption during her trip there earlier this month.    But are the US Treasury Secretary’s criticisms justified? Will China’s leaders push through the necessary reforms to bring down the savings rate? And how will western governments respond if they don’t?    In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital...

The EM team has taken over the podcast this week to highlight two of the biggest issues in emerging market investing.    William Jackson talks to Shilan Shah about how emerging market economies will fare as fossil fuels are phased out in favour of green technologies. From oil producers in the Gulf and Africa to geopolitics and supply chains, William and Shilan tackle some of the key risks and opportunities facing emerging markets as the green transition progresses.   Also, Liam Peach explains...

Before Neil Shearing gets on to discussing the key takeaways from our latest Global Economic Outlook, he talks to David Wilder about the inflationary risks stemming from the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge at Baltimore’s port.    The Capital Economics Group Chief Economist also explains what to make of the apparent contradiction of US business leaders making high-profile visits to China even as the US and UK governments slap sanctions on state-affiliated hackers.   Also, this...

Germany's economy is in “troubled waters” and doing “dramatically badly” – and those are just the assessments of its economy minister. But are the recessionary conditions in the euro-zone’s biggest economy merely a cyclical blip or signs of deeper structural malaise?   In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to Andrew Kenningham, Chief Europe Economist, about our new, in-depth report on the long-term German...

A few hot(ish) US inflation prints has spooked the market about how easily the Federal Reserve can get back to its 2% target. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses whether those fears are justified and tells David Wilder what to expect from the coming week’s meetings from the Fed and the Bank of Japan.    He also talks TikTok, putting congressional efforts to ban the video app in the broader context of a fracturing...

The good news is our China team has solved a mystery about Chinese property construction: why has it held up so well, even as sales and starts have collapsed? The bad news is that their conclusions point to a painful adjustment with massive implications for China’s growth and policy outlook.    With Neil Shearing out this week, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to tell David Wilder why China faces a wrenching economic future – and why...

China. Inflation. Trump. In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Neil Shearing addresses some of the questions which kept coming up during a recent round of client meetings in the Middle East and Asia. (00.00-10:15) Also on the show, Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team preview the coming week’s Spring Budget and discuss why the UK’s fiscal constraints mean that the winner of this year’s general election faces some ugly choices. (12:19-20:57) Plus, as the...

For all the blustering about trade wars, the fact is that Donald Trump’s punitive actions against China during his presidency didn’t do much to hurt its economy. But it’ll be a very different story if he wins in November and makes good on his pledge to slap tariffs up to 60% on Chinese imports.    Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing about what Trump 2.0 might mean for China, and how fresh trade actions could exacerbate the...

In a week in which UK and Japanese data both confirmed two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why the concept of “recessions” can be unhelpful in understanding the state of economies.  He also tells David Wilder why, whoever wins in upcoming elections, governments on both sides of the Atlantic are likely to be shackled by fiscal constraints.  Plus, the most aggressive monetary tightening in a generation appears to have succeeded without...

We’re trying a ‘quickfire round’ on this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to get Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing answering the questions that clients have been asking most frequently in recent days: Could inflation rebound?Could escalation in the Middle East drive up inflation?Are falling commercial real estate valuations fuelling a new banking crisis?Is the boom in US productivity growth sustainable?Will Donald Trump start a trade war if he’s...

If Jerome Powell dampened talk of a March rate cut on Wednesday then the January payrolls report on Friday stamped it out for good. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing dives into the latest US jobs numbers to discuss what they say about the health of the labour market and what they signal about the timing of the first Fed rate cut this year.  Neil also talks to David Wilder about what’s happening with inflation and labour...

Post-ECB and pre-Fed and Bank of England meetings, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what 'data dependency' means for central banks as they try to gauge when to begin rate cuts – and to manage the market’s expectations about when those cuts will start. David Wilder is also joined by Deputy Chief Global Economist Simon MacAdam to discuss the inflation risks stemming from disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea. Simon explains how our new Shipping Disruption Dashboard helps investors...

Why are markets pushing back on rate cut expectations? How will the ECB play its upcoming meeting? What’s really happening to China’s economy? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles the big macro and market questions in our latest episode of The Weekly Briefing.  Plus, our forecast for the S&P 500 this year is one of the most bullish in the market. John Higgins, who leads our financial markets team, tells David Wilder what’s behind the forecast, including why valuations may not be so...

With US and UK strikes on Houthis in the headlines and Taiwanese voting in their flashpoint election, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpicks what the now- clichéd idea that we live in a “more dangerous world” actually means for thinking through macro risk. He discusses with David Wilder our framework for looking at a world that’s fracturing into competing economic blocs and what this means for globalisation, as well as how the US election outcome in November could radically shift the...

The Fed-triggered financial market exuberance which ended 2023 hasn’t carried into the new year, with yields rising and equities struggling. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what’s changed – and what hasn’t – to explain this mood shift. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Neil also talks to David Wilder about the latest euro-zone inflation numbers and what they mean for the start of ECB rate cuts. Neil also previews the coming week’s US CPI release and, with Houthi...

After the Fed supercharged the bond market’s recovery, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about issues around 2024’s flagged rate cuts, including the impact of loosening financial conditions as investors front-run policymakers, whether “team transitory” has been proved right, and why the ECB and Bank of England are still sounding decidedly hawkish. Plus, our EM team sees “unusually large” growth divergence coming for emerging market economies in 2024. Deputy Chief EM...

The same questions kept coming up in our client briefings on the 2024 outlook and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles them in this latest episode of our weekly podcast. He talks about why economic resilience will be increasingly tested and which DM central banks are likely to cut rates first, but also talks about what could go wrong for our calls in the coming year.  Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory is also on the podcast to explain why the Bank of England won’t be in a hurry to...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing warns the potential threat to fiscal positions from higher rates is “perhaps the most important question hanging over the outlook for the next couple of years”.  In this episode, he speaks to Head of Research Vicky Redwood and Andrew Kenningham, Chief Europe Economist, about the size and scope of that threat, including what governments need to do to keep markets onside, whether Italian and US debt positions are particular causes for concern and how a busy...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles what we think will be the key themes for the global economy in 2024, including why the consensus for growth is too optimistic, how quickly the Fed could cut rates and how to think about the macro and market consequences of a full slate of elections.  Plus, with COP 28 about to get underway in Dubai, Climate Economics head David Oxley and Climate Economist Hamad Hussain discuss why these high-level meetings aren’t the solution to a successful green...