The same questions kept coming up in our client briefings on the 2024 outlook and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles them in this latest episode of our weekly podcast. He talks about why economic resilience will be increasingly tested and which DM central banks are likely to cut rates first, but also talks about what could go wrong for our calls in the coming year.  Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory is also on the podcast to explain why the Bank of England won’t be in a hurry to...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing warns the potential threat to fiscal positions from higher rates is “perhaps the most important question hanging over the outlook for the next couple of years”.  In this episode, he speaks to Head of Research Vicky Redwood and Andrew Kenningham, Chief Europe Economist, about the size and scope of that threat, including what governments need to do to keep markets onside, whether Italian and US debt positions are particular causes for concern and how a busy...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles what we think will be the key themes for the global economy in 2024, including why the consensus for growth is too optimistic, how quickly the Fed could cut rates and how to think about the macro and market consequences of a full slate of elections.  Plus, with COP 28 about to get underway in Dubai, Climate Economics head David Oxley and Climate Economist Hamad Hussain discuss why these high-level meetings aren’t the solution to a successful green...

Does the surprise victory of Javier Milei in Argentina's presidential election mean the country is about to experience a raft of unorthodox economic policymaking to fix its ailing economy? How likely is Milei's dollarisation plan? What does this electoral victory mean for Argentina's negotiations with the IMF? In this special episode of The Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, Chief EM Economist William Jackson and Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey get to grips with the potential risks...

After nearly two years of monetary tightening, debate rages over whether advanced economies are heading for recession. However, as Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder in this latest episode, recessions come in more flavours than the two sequential quarters of negative growth that have come to define them.  Plus, in the wake of that Joe Biden-Xi Jinping meeting in San Francisco, an exclusive clip from our Drop-In briefing on global fracturing explains why a broad agreement...

Central bankers have a tough task when it comes to communicating with markets – just ask the Bank of England’s Huw Pill, who started the week hinting at rate cuts and ended it with an insistence that the current setting has to remain in place to quash inflation.  In this week’s episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing delves into the challenges that central banks face in articulating policy to the market, and what lies behind the relatively hawkish rhetoric of late. Neil also talks about...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is back to discuss what the recent data say about the global economic outlook – including October US payrolls and China PMIs – and what to expect from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England following their decisions to keep rates unchanged over the past week. Neil also explains why a persistent focus on the threats to humanity posed by artificial intelligence is unhelpful.  Franziska Palmas from our Europe team is also on the show to discuss her worrying new...

It's Fed week and Deputy Chief US Economist Andrew Hunter joins David Wilder to discuss what to expect from the Tuesday-Wednesday FOMC meeting, including how the recent surge in long bond yields could influence the decision and accompanying language. Andrew also talks about the new House Speaker and whether Mike Johnson's appointment lowers the risk of a US government shutdown next month.  Plus, it's been three weeks since Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel and financial markets have remained...

With the 10-year Treasury yield finally hitting 5%, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains the macro risks around rising bond yields, telling David Wilder what this all means for central banks.    He also talks about how policymakers manage geopolitical uncertainty in light of Israel’s conflict with Hamas and talks about how events in the Middle East fit with the idea that the global economy is fracturing into competing US- and China-led blocs.   Plus, Mark Williams tackles market talk...

Which countries are leading the AI race? What role is AI playing amid growing strategic competition between the US and China? Does AI spell doom for EM outsourcing industries?    Moneli Hall-Harris from our Consultancy division and Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah talk to David Wilder about our AI Economic Impact Index and what its rankings say about which economies are best positioned to develop AI, but also to diffuse and adapt to the technology.    The discussion with Moneli and...

The surprise attack on Israel by Hamas last weekend upended a lot of geopolitical assumptions, but what will this mean for the economic and markets outlook? Liam Peach, a senior economist on our Macro team, and Chief Commodities Economist Caroline Bain join David Wilder to talk through the local and regional economic risks around the conflict and the potential knock-on effects on global energy markets.   Plus, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing introduces our major new work on equilibrium...

That September US payrolls report has triggered renewed selling in global bond markets. With yields threatening to hit fresh multi-year highs and investors scrambling for reasons behind the sell-off, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann tell David Wilder just worried we should be and what’s likely to happen next.  In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Neil and Jonas talk through a tumultuous few weeks in bond markets, addressing the...

Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown provides a sneak peek of our upcoming Q4 Global Economic Outlook. She tells David Wilder why “higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness and also explains why monetary tightening hasn’t had the direct and immediate impact that had been expected. Jenny also previews our upcoming work on neutral interest rates. Plus, in an exclusive clip from our recent client briefing on the Bank of Japan, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams, Japan lead Marcel...

From hope to reality to hype and hysteria. The rapid development and adoption of generative artificial intelligence may be keeping headline writers busy, but is there anything to their warnings about the technology’s roll-out leading to mass unemployment?  In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Senior Economic Advisor Vicky Redwood and Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory discuss AI’s potential as an economic game changer and what that could mean for labour markets.   Vicky and...

The potential of artificial intelligence to reshape the global economy is more than just the breathless hype of headline writers. Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, explains why AI’s impact should be thought of in terms of previous technological developments such as railways and the desktop computer and how they transformed economies in their time.    Ahead of the 26th September launch of our major new report on what AI means for economies and markets, Paul discusses recent...

We think the Fed and ECB have ended their tightening cycles, and that the Bank of England's will be over by the end of this week. With hikes over, attention invariably turns to when rates could be cut. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why investors hoping for clues on timing from central bankers are going to be disappointed.   He also tells David Wilder why the Bank of Japan may seize a chance to raise rates for the first time in 16 years, why hard landing fears around China won’t...

For consumers, it’s the camera lenses on the outside that may draw them to Huawei's Mate 60 Pro. For those tracking shifts in the global macro narrative, it’s the chip inside the sanctioned Chinese firm’s newest flagship phone that’s most interesting. In the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what one of the Mate 60’s key components means in the context of US controls on technology exports and the fracturing of the global economy. Neil also...

As summer holidays draw to a close attention is quickly turning to September’s big central bank decisions. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and the team have been sifting through weeks of data from the US, euro-zone and UK to assess what the Fed, ECB and Bank of England are going to do when they sit down to decide their next moves on rates. He tells David Wilder what to expect from these meetings, but also what central bankers mean when they keep telling the press that intend to stay the...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing walks through the summer’s big market themes to discuss the growth outlook, the China slowdown scares and whether the hype around AI is justified. Along the way, he gives his take on the latest PMI readings, explains the problem with China stimulus hopes and previews our forthcoming work on the impact of artificial intelligence on the global economy and markets. Plus, Tom Mathews, a senior economist on our Markets team, talks about what the enthusiasm...

 Government bond yields have been hitting multi-year highs even though data show inflation in retreat and central bankers are preparing to down tools – if they haven’t already. Why the disconnect? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about what’s been happening in the bond market, whether this is why some EMs have been struggling, and what Jerome Powell might say at Jackson Hole this week.   Plus, Global Economist Ariane Curtis has just completed work on the outlook for...

While China’s latest price reports have markets worrying about deflation, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing thinks the real issue is what’s happening in core inflation against a backdrop of a struggling economy. He also reviews the “immaculate” July CPI report from the US and what means for the Fed and previews the UK CPI report for July due this coming Wednesday.  Plus, Caroline Bain, our Chief Commodities Economist, talks about a raft of supply pinches facing commodities markets, from the...

Economies aren’t doing what Economics 101 says they should be doing, with disinflationary evidence piling up, even as labour markets remain in relatively good shape. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about the sell-off in the bond market, potential paths to a soft landing, and the key messages from the July non-farm payrolls report. He also explains what an announcement from AMD says about artificial intelligence in a world of economic fracturing. Plus, Kimberley...

It was one of those turning points in the global economy which deserved more attention: Chinese passenger car exports exceeded Japan’s this past May, powered by the country’s rapidly-expanding electric vehicle sector.  It’s a marker of China’s increasing dominance in this emerging industry, and another sign of Japan’s struggles to make more headway, despite its early forays into alternative fuel vehicles. But secure is China’s EV dominance, how big a threat are its EVs to the likes of Toyota,...

The euro-zone may be mired in recession, but that won’t stop the ECB from raising rates again this coming week in order to get inflation – a “greedy beast”, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – under control.  Deputy Chief Eurozone Economist Jack Allen-Reynolds tells David Wilder why another 25 basis point hikes is a done deal for this Thursday, but also why the ECB could take rates up to 4% from 3.5% now and keep them there – and what that means for an already-faltering European...

Markets cheered the US June inflation report, with equities rising and yields falling on solid evidence that the forces that drove core inflation to a four-decade high are in retreat. But is the crisis really over? How will the Fed respond in July and subsequent meetings? And what does the US experience say about the UK and European outlooks? In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about this latest shift...