25 or 50? What the Fed will do, how markets could react, and our new recession indicators
Listen now
Description
As the much-anticipated start of Fed easing approaches, the debate has centred on whether Powell & Co. will opt for a 25 or a 50-basis point rate cut.  On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the rationale for a larger move, but also explains why we’re expecting this easing cycle to begin with a 25bps move.  Senior Markets Economist James Reilly is also on the show to talk about our new interactive dashboard which crunches more than six decades of Fed and market data to give investors a clear guide to how major asset prices will respond to monetary easing.  Finally, Simon MacAdam, our Deputy Chief Global Economist, discusses our Economic Momentum Indicators, which give investors single, comparable data points showing whether DM economies are facing recession.  He tells Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis what the indicators are saying about the growth risks faced by the US and Germany. Analysis and Data Dashboards referenced in this episode: Report: Rate cuts and asset returnsDashboard: Rate Cuts & Asset ReturnsReport: How to gauge recession risk in DMsDashboard: Composite Economic Momentum Indicators
More Episodes
Reports of retail’s death have been exaggerated. After a long and painful adjustment, the retail’s potential to deliver decent returns means our commercial real estate team now thinks it’ll be the second best performer among the major sectors over our forecast horizon in both the US and UK. CRE...
Published 09/17/24
That August payrolls report was one of the more keenly awaited data releases in a while – but what do its details suggest about how the Fed is likely to start monetary easing when it meets later this month?  On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America...
Published 09/06/24