Markets have been on the rise since the U.S. election, a mood that the Private Bank’s Chief Global Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, described as “euphoria” – though he said it may start to temper. “The discussion about austerity is probably gone for the time being,” and that could be inflationary and send longer-term yields higher, Christian says. “We do not expect yields to go massively lower from here.” Meanwhile, third-quarter earnings season is mostly complete, though there are...

Donald Trump secured his victory in the U.S. presidential race, and stocks subsequently jumped. That is in part because of the speed at which the result became clear, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The elections were a risk event. Elections bring uncertainty, but the memory of 2020 was quite vivid in the investor's psyche,” Deepak says. “The fact that we have a result very quickly has created this relief rally.” The Federal Reserve also...

The U.S. election this week sits on a knife’s edge, and it “might have significant importance for sector allocations going forward for the next few years”, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “The market will price in quite a few things once we get the results.” But politics aren’t the only matter on the agenda. The Federal Reserve will also make another decision on interest rates, and third-quarter earnings season remains in full gear. We are “coming out on the busiest week...

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses widening spreads in U.S. rates, China’s stimulus impact and the growing list of emerging markets joining the BRICS alliance. Stefanie says U.S. long-term rates are expected to stay higher because of market expectations that deficit spending will continue regardless of the outcome of the election and a Fed that continues with monetary easing as long as...

The European Central Bank has delivered interest-rate cuts at its recent consecutive meetings, but the Private Bank’s Chief Global Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, says that does not necessarily mean the bank will ultimately bring down rates massively from their current levels in this cycle. “They need to also watch inflation, which we still think is sticky”, Christian says. For now, the main topic in markets is the ongoing U.S. earnings season, Christian says. “Favourite sectors, I...

Third-quarter earnings season has kicked off in the U.S., and strong economic data from the period could mean that analysts are currently underestimating how strong the results might be, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “The consensus is maybe a touch too conservative when it comes to estimating earnings growth”, Dirk says, though he also notes that with the U.S. election coming up and plenty of geopolitical unrest, earnings won’t be the only thing on investors’ minds. In...

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, discusses how the Fed rate cut and expectations on its rate cut cycle has been a game changer for Emerging Asia central banks and assets. Stefanie discusses China’s potentially largest ever stimulus package, equivalent to 7 trillion Renminbi and up to around 6% of China’s GDP this year. Stefanie argues that China’s new forward guidance is a positive for helping to...

The candidates for vice president in the upcoming U.S. presidential election are set to debate this week, in what may well be the last debate before election day. The event is not likely to shift investor sentiment, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. But he adds a caveat: “It shouldn't be a market moving event unless there are some policy decisions, or policy rhetoric, that comes out of either candidate that could have an impact on certain sectors...

Dirk Steffen, Chief Investment Officer EMEA and Chief Investment Strategist, outlines what the Fed's recent interest rate cut means for upcoming central bank actions and economic developments. He argues that recent data points, including relatively low initial jobless claims and robust retail sales, had pointed more towards a 25 bps cut. While the bigger cut by 50 bps was arguably not necessary, it is certainly helping to prevent a recession and facilitates a soft landing. In the months to...

Markets are widely expecting the Federal Reserve to kick off its rate-cutting cycle this week. The question is how big a cut it will deliver, because “the market is exactly split” on whether it will be a quarter percentage point or a half percentage point, says the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO Dr. Dirk Steffen. “So it will either way lead to market moves.” And as for the recent ups and downs in stocks more broadly, “We think volatility is here to stay”, Dirk says. He notes that investors will be...

Recent U.S. jobs data came in below consensus forecasts, but the Private Bank's Global CIO, Christian Nolting, says that the drop in equities that followed might have had more to do with signs of concern from the Federal Reserve. "The market doesn't like, I should say, if the Fed is a bit concerned”, Christian says, “Hence, we saw a bit negative reaction." Christian says that a coming interest-rate decision from the European Central Bank will have a lot of focus in the week to come, but...

Summer is nearly over, and with 2nd quarter earnings reports wrapped up, investors are now setting their expectations for corporate results from the 3rd quarter, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “We have this time where investors are asking what's next”, Dirk says, noting that “We think it will, again, be a quite supportive earnings season.” Key data reports this week will shed light on the U.S. labour market. “It's not only payroll Friday, it's the JOLTS report” of...

Following the Jackson Hole conference of central bankers last week, as well as the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, investors are now focused on next month’s policy decision – which could include an interest-rate cut. “It’s the rates market that is pretty much dictating how the risky assets do”, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, in this week’s podcast. “Some of the recent data has been quite noisy and, when you start...

This week's Jackson Hole conference will be in focus for investors because "we can discuss what central bankers have in store," says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. He also says that while markets have shown some signs of calming after a bout of sharp moves, he expects volatility could remain a factor for some time. "There are of course important things happening in the eurozone as well," he adds, pointing to some hesitancy at the European Central Bank to aggressively cut...

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, explains what investors should be watching for after a recent stretch of volatility in markets. “Volatility has come down a little bit, which I think is positive”, Christian says, while noting that some of the key considerations remain: the strength of the global economy, the ongoing corporate earnings season, and the direction of central-bank policy. Christian says...

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses the Federal Reserve’s pivot for a rate cut this year, and data points leading to September.  For Japan, Stefanie says the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirmed its second rate hike for this year (up from 0-0.1% to 0.25%), and also announced quantitative easing. All eyes are now on next week’s wage data, which will test repriced assumptions for BoJ’s next...

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses repricing in markets and monetary policy. In considering a September rate cut, Stefanie says the Federal Reserve needs to balance economic growth, inflation, and job market risks when it meets this week. Europe is also repricing in anticipation for when second quarter GDP data is announced this week, which may show slower growth. However, an inflation...

Deepak Puri, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, outlines what recent economic data could mean for Fed policy, and offers a view on U.S. equities as well as geopolitical considerations for investors. An update on GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will be in the spotlight this week. But recent economic reports suggest we're getting closer to the comfort zone for the Fed to move rates. Deepak says, "The US economy is not breaking, but is bending to a somewhat slower...

Dirk Steffen, our Chief Investment Officer EMEA and Global Chief Investment Strategist, discusses recent inflation prints, elaborates on European assets after elections and comments on the Q2 earnings season. Inflation data from the US came in slightly lower than expected which caused quite a bit of rotation. "Everybody's darlings - the megacaps and growth stocks - underperformed significantly while small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, outperformed," says Dirk. Commenting on...

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, set the stage for the 2nd-quarter earnings season which is about to begin – and reflected on what that could mean for equities. “Earnings expectations are very high, and that needs confirmation,” Christian said. “But in general, we do expect a very solid earnings season.” He also explained why investors might want to look at small- and mid-cap stocks in the coming...

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa, Dr. Dirk Steffen, took a historical view to evaluate this year’s surge, and recent volatility, in megacap technology stocks. “We have to have that discussion”, Dirk said. “But we don’t think that we are already in bubble territory.” Politics entered the conversation, as investors turn to focus on elections in France and the U.K. and consider the implications....

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen puts inflation data and FX under the lens, and discusses recent key moves in JPY, AUD, CNY, EUR, and CHF. Stefanie says the Swiss Franc (CHF) strengthened as a safe haven ahead of France’s election this weekend, giving the Swiss Central Bank reason for a surprise rate cut. In the Asia Pacific region, Stefanie says this week’s inflation data could trigger the Bank of...

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, Deepak Puri, reflects on the outlook for interest rates, and a variety of assets, in light of receding price pressures. "We've started to see this disinflation traction that the Fed has been asking for", he says. The Private Bank also had its quarterly CIO Day, which yielded some positive updates on forecasts for the economy. "We have upgraded slightly the global growth scenario...

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa, Dr. Dirk Steffen, considers the outlook for the European economy and European stocks after the ECB's decision to get ahead of the Federal Reserve and begin to bring rates down.  Dirk says that the rate cut doesn't mean the ECB will move quickly. "It will be a small and smooth and cautious cycle", Dirk says. "And that essentially means that here we are dealing...