Episodes
US equities finished lower in uneventful Monday trading. This week starts the peak of Q3 earnings with 112 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. Nothing on the economic calendar today and a slow data week ahead, though a bit of Fedspeak.
Published 10/21/24
Major US equity indices were higher this week, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all up for the sixth consecutive week (and the S&P closing at another fresh record high on Friday). The soft-/no-landing narrative continued to gain support from cooperative economic releases, particularly Thursday's robust September retail sales report which saw healthy m/m growth in control-group sales. Elsewhere, Q3 earnings results have continued to point toward growth, with the blended EPS y/y growth...
Published 10/18/24
US equities finished narrowly mixed in Thursday trading. Growth and momentum were providing leadership in today's trading, with the AI secular growth theme the big focus following Taiwan Semiconductor earnings and guidance, pushing semis to the best day in three weeks. September headline retail sales came in a bit higher than expected, up 0.4% vs Street consensus of 0.3%.
Published 10/17/24
US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending near best levels though the S&P fell short of another all time high. Market gains broadened out on a largely catalyst-free day. Earnings activity continues to pick up while macro is quiet into a busier Thursday featuring retail sales, an expected 25 basis point rate cut from the ECB, and a China press conference to detail property support measures.
Published 10/16/24
US equities finished mostly lower in Tuesday trading, ending near worst levels. Semis sold off following soft bookings, guidance and demand commentary from ASML. Financial/bank earnings were fairly well received though bar had moved higher following results on Friday. Fed Empire manufacturing, which printed at (11.9), well below consensus for +3.0 and September's +11.5.
Published 10/15/24
US equities finished higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading. It was a quiet start to the week with the US bond market closed for holiday, plus a waiting game for more Q3 earnings and a big macro data day on Thursday. Earnings season ramps up a bit this week with 43 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report, representing about 9% of market cap.
Published 10/14/24
US equities were higher this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq each logging their fifth straight week of gains. There was a blizzard of Fed-speak this week, though nothing to seriously shift market expectations for another 25bp FOMC rate cut in November. September's headline and core CPI readings came in a bit ahead of consensus, seeing increases in categories such as airline fares, used cars, and vehicle insurance. Headline and core September PPI, on the other hand, were largely in line with...
Published 10/11/24
US equities finished lower in a fairly choppy Thursday trading. Some of today’s downside was tabbed to a hotter than expected CPI print, though both analysts and Fed officials played down the report, noting that it's just one month of data. The latest earnings updates are also offering mixed takeaways around consumer trends.
Published 10/10/24
US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 103bps, 71bps, and 60bps respectively. Today’s $39B 10Y auction tailed 40bp, and dealer take was the lowest since 2018. Department of Justice is considering asking federal judge to force Google to sell parts of its operations. Hurricane Milton has bounced between a Category 4 and Category 5 storm today ahead of its expected landfall in central Florida Thursday morning.
Published 10/09/24
US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, ending just off their best levels at the close, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 30bps, 97bps, and 145bps respectively. Busy day of Fedspeak. Today's Treasury auction of $58B in 3Y notes tailed, with softer bid-to-cover and weak foreign demand. Hurricane Milton rapidly intensifying and on a direct course for central Florida. China’s economic planning body announced no new stimulus. Israel considering a retaliatory strike...
Published 10/08/24
US equities were lower in Monday trading, ending just off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 94bps, 96bps, and 89bps respectively. A risk-off day across the board as both stocks and Treasuries sold off. Not many new updates to the broader narrative, but a lot of focus on recent backup in yields amid hawkish Fed repricing after last week's blowout September jobs report. Kashkari today said he has confidence in inflation moving back to targeted rate, though...
Published 10/07/24
US equities were slightly lower this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both breaking three-straight weeks of gains. Geopolitical risk sparked a ramp in oil prices this week, which could add risk to the soft-landing narrative and potentially put upward pressure on inflation. The big data report this week was September payrolls, which came in at 254K, above 150K consensus, while the prior two months were revised up 72K and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%.
Published 10/04/24
US equities closed lower in Thursday trading, ending not far from worst levels. Quiet session with light volume and choppy trading with market in a waiting game for September NFP tomorrow. Middle East tensions continue to be flagged as an overhang. Weekly initial claims printed a bit above consensus.
Published 10/03/24
US equities finished fractionally higher overall in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 9bps, 1bp, and 8bps respectively. Stocks stabilized today, largely shrugging off recent Middle East developments, while work stoppage at US East and Gulf Coast ports a widely flagged potential growth and supply chain risk. ADP private payrolls of 143K came in above 125K consensus. Richmond’s Barkin said Fed may have trouble covering the "last mile" on inflation.
Published 10/02/24
US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, but ended off worst levels. Market trading risk off to start October/Q4 with latest ramp in Middle East tensions the go-to excuse. JOLTS job openings came in firmer than expected. ISM manufacturing a bit weaker than expected at 47.2 in September. Nothing incremental in Fedspeak.
Published 10/01/24
US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending just off their best levels after erasing afternoon declines, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closing up 4bps, 42bps, and 38bps respectively. Fed Chair Powell said that if the economy evolves as expected, two 25bp cuts are the base case for remainder of year. Fed Governor Bowman repeated her preference for slower easing. Atlanta's Bostic said he's open to a 50bp move should the labor market weaken. September’s Dallas Fed Index came...
Published 09/30/24
US equities were higher for the week, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new fresh all-time highs today, and the Nasdaq locking in five straight sessions of gains. China stimulus, Micron earnings, and August core PCE were the big stories this week. The global easing cycle was in the headlines with the SNB delivering its third consecutive rate cut and flagging the potential for further easing, while the probability of an ECB rate cut in October picked up as well.
Published 09/27/24
US equities were higher in Thursday trading as stocks rebounded from Wednesday's mostly lower session. A number of bullish updates included much better than expected results and guidance from MU, while broader AI secular growth theme also supported by NRG, ACN updates. Initial claims of 218K below consensus, lowest since May, while continuing claims in line. Durable goods orders beat.
Published 09/26/24
US equities were mostly lower in Wednesday trading, though ended off worst levels. Nothing really new today as market continues to wait for NFP next Friday and start of Q3 earnings. August new home sales declined less than expected m/m, with July revised higher.
Published 09/25/24
US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels after a fairly uneventful afternoon. September consumer confidence came in below an upwardly revised August, with the present situation and expectation indices both lower m/m. September's Richmond Fed manufacturing index slipped m/m, with employment a weak spot.
Published 09/24/24
US equities were mostly higher in fairly quiet, rangebound Monday trading. September flash manufacturing PMI slipped to 47 from 47.9 in August, below the 48.5 consensus. A busy week of Fedspeak lies ahead, with Bowman, Kugler, Williams, Barr, Cook and Collins all on tap.
Published 09/23/24
US equities were higher for the week, with the S&P setting a new fresh all-time high on Thursday (its 39th record close of the year) before trimming gains on Friday. After months of anticipation, the Fed this week opened up its long-expected easing cycle with a 50 bps rate cut, matching expectations as represented by futures pricing but coming against broad analyst consensus forecasting only 25 bps. August retail sales were slightly positive vs expectations for a decline, with analysts...
Published 09/20/24
US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, ending not far from best levels. A big rally for stocks today following yesterday’s 50 basis point Fed rate cut., which saw the S&P 500 hit a fresh record close. In macro news, initial claims came in below consensus, falling to its lowest level since May.
Published 09/19/24
US equities finished lower Wednesday, ending near worst levels in choppy post-FOMC trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 25bps, 29bps, and 31bps respectively. Monetary policy pivot was the big story today with the Fed opting for a more aggressive 50 bp rate cut. While the Street seemed to largely be in the 25 bp camp, the market was leaning toward 50 bp. August housing starts and building permits both came in ahead of consensus.
Published 09/18/24
US equities finished largely mixed in Tuesday trading. Another quiet session ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting. Today's August retail sales report was a bit stronger than expected whereas previews suggested a weaker report could have tipped the scales more conclusively toward a bigger cut. Fed pivot and economic soft landing still seen as the main driver of the bullish narrative.
Published 09/17/24