Episodes
Published 03/15/24
US equities were lower for the week, with the Nasdaq posting its second consecutive weekly drop and the small-cap Russell saw its worst week since the opening of 2024. Treasuries were notably weaker, with yields for most maturities seeing a five-day run higher. There was a big focus on the week's data releases, primarily a hotter-than-expected reading for February core CPI. 
Published 03/15/24
US equities ended lower Thursday, though off worst levels, following a mixed session for stocks on Wednesday. Another big rate backup is the overhang on sentiment, particularly as it comes from sticky inflation concerns rather than from a firmer growth backdrop. Headline and core PPI came in hotter than expected, while annualized PPI was at its hottest since September.
Published 03/14/24
US equities ended mixed Wednesday, just off worst levels, with the Dow Jones finishing up 10bps while the S&P500, and Nasdaq closed down 19bps and 54bps respectively. Fairly quiet day from a macro perspective, with no big economic datapoints on the calendar today, attention turning to PPI, Retail Sales tomorrow. Corporate headlines included Dollar Tree Q4 miss and store closures, Pentagon scrapping plans to spend $2.5B on Intel defense grant, and the US House passing a bill that could...
Published 03/13/24
US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading as stocks ended near best levels and more than erased Monday weakness. Momentum factor rallied despite recent scrutiny surrounding stretched positioning/sentiment/valuation. Market shook off another hotter-than-expected core CPI print. Headline February CPI printed in line with consensus for a 0.4% monthly rise, but faster than January. Headline up 3.2% y/y. Core CPI a bit hotter than expected.
Published 03/12/24
US equities ended mostly lower on Monday, off worst levels, in a quiet trading session. The market is playing the waiting game for the CPI report on Tuesday. In macro news, the New York Fed 1Y inflation expectations for February are unchanged m/m at 3%, though the expectations rose at the 3Y and 5Y horizons.
Published 03/11/24
US equities were mostly lower this week with the Nasdaq and Dow lagging, though the Russell 2000 again outperformed. This week's focus was on nonfarm payrolls and Fed Chairman Powell's congressional testimony. Bulls would note employment data and revisions were dovish, while bears would point to select hawkish Fed-speak.
Published 03/08/24
US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending just off best levels as stocks built on Wednesday's gains. The market is extending Wednesday's bounce into the NFP report tomorrow, while Powell's Congressional testimony mostly a non-event. In macro news, initial claims fell largely in line with expectations.
Published 03/07/24
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, though ended off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 20bps, 51bps, and 58bps respectively. Powell reiterated likelihood of loosening later this year, though more confidence needed on sustained move towards 2% target. February ADP private payrolls slightly softer than expected. JOLTs job openings down in January from prior month to lowest since October, while quits rate down a tick. Fed's Beige Book also said economic...
Published 03/06/24
US equities ended lower on Tuesday, a bit off from worst levels. Market on the defensive ahead of Powell tomorrow and NFP on Friday. Tech/growth/momentum weakness the big story, though may be more a function of fatigue (positioning/technicals) rather than fundamentals. ISM services for February came in slightly below consensus, while new orders increased from January.
Published 03/05/24
US equities ended lower Monday, losing strength in the last hour of trading. No big directional drivers in play ahead of Powell and payrolls later this week, as well as the CPI next week. The focus is on Powell's semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
Published 03/04/24
The major averages were mostly higher this week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up for the seventh week in the past eight (and 16th week in the past 18). This week's January Core PCE was in line with expectations, removing an overhang of the Fed's preferred inflation measure coming in hotter than expected. Tech momentum also remained a tailwind amid more AI proliferation optimism.
Published 03/01/24
US equities ended higher Thursday afternoon, near best levels. The market is shaking off this week's previously defensive tone after today's right-in-line January PCE price inflation report. Initial and continuing jobless claims printed a bit higher than consensus.
Published 02/29/24
US equities ended lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 6bps, 17bps, and 55bps respectively. Very quiet session with nothing specific behind the pullback. First revision of Q4 GDP marked down to 3.2% pace; Personal consumption marked up to 3.0%; Q4 GDP price index marked up to 1.6%; and Q4 core PCE up to 2.1%. Busy in terms of Fedspeak but not much new, with governors reiterating patience, but cuts likely later this year.
Published 02/28/24
US equities ended mostly higher Tuesday, off worst levels though trading fairly rangebound. Market still struggling for direction ahead of core PCE inflation on Thursday and ISM manufacturing on Friday. January durable goods down sharply on the headline (though likely impact from weak Boeing orders). Core capital-goods orders also a bit light. Elsewhere, February consumer confidence came in below consensus, and January was revised lower; labor-market differential also narrowed.
Published 02/27/24
US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading, ending near worst levels though downside modest. Nothing really incremental from a narrative perspective ahead of some more meaningful potential macro catalysts late in the week. In macro news, today's record $63B 2Y auction saw a slight tail, the weakest bid-to-cover since March 2023 while the $61B 5Y auction tailed by 0.8bp.
Published 02/26/24
US equities were mostly higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up for the 15th time in the past 17 weeks. There were a number of moving pieces this week, though the key bullish narrative was AI optimism after Nvidia earnings. Fedspeak continued to lean hawkish, though officials including Governor Waller and New York's Williams continue to say they still expect cuts this year.
Published 02/23/24
US equities ended higher and near best levels in Thursday trading, with S&P logging a new all-time high and the Nasdaq having its best session in more than a year. In macro news, initial jobless claims came in below consensus, the lowest since early January and continuing claims was also light of forecasts. Today’s risk-on session was driven by the latest bout of AI enthusiasm following another blowout quarter and guidance from NVIDIA, which finished up +15.3%.
Published 02/22/24
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday afternoon trading, ending near best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 both finishing up 13bps while the Nasdaq closed down 32bps. Latest FOMC minutes noted most officials flagged the risks of cutting rates too early, though some policymakers pointed to downside risks of maintaining higher rates for too long. Fed’s Governor Bowman said time for lower rates is certainly not now, while Richmond's Barkin said question now is how long disinflation...
Published 02/21/24
US equities finished lower in fairly quiet Tuesday trading, though the equal-weight S&P held up better than the official index. Small-caps more than erased last week's gains. Today saw a lot of drag from NVDA ahead of its earnings, a dynamic that weighed on the broad semi space. Came after market leaned risk-off last week with the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints driving another hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations. Fairly quiet week ahead form a macro perspective...
Published 02/20/24
US equities ended mostly higher this week with the Russell 2000 again outperforming the S&P despite over 4% drawdown on Tuesday following hotter CPI print. Treasuries were weaker with some curve flattening. Dollar index was slightly up the greenback having strong performance on the yen cross. This week's focus was on CPI and PPI readings coming in hotter than expected lending support for the "higher for longer" Fed rate cut narrative and prompting some risk-off sentiment.
Published 02/16/24
US equities ended higher Thursday, just off best levels. The bounce following Tuesday's CPI drawdown has been chalked up to several dynamics, including the potential "January effect" on the print, somewhat dovish Fedspeak, a still favorable setup surrounding Fed pivot and resilient US growth backdrop, stable 2024 consensus earnings estimates amid heightened focus on operational efficiency, and an intact disinflation narrative. It's been a huge day of economic releases, including January...
Published 02/15/24
US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending at best levels in a rebound from Tuesday's sharp selloff, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 40bps, 96bps, and 130bps respectively. Annual PPI revisions saw December headline and core revised slightly lower. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said slightly higher inflation over coming months still consistent with path back to 2% target.
Published 02/14/24
US equities under pressure in Tuesday trading, though stocks ended well off worst levels. Small-caps underperformed with Russell 2000 posting worst session since Jun-22. Hotter-than-expected January CPI drove risk off. Some focus on disappointing earnings, particularly in tech and industrial, though high bar seems to be an issue for former. Headline CPI increased 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, ahead of the 0.2%/2.9% consensus.
Published 02/13/24
US equities were mixed in Monday trading with the S&P and Nasdaq ending near worst levels. Recent sell-side research and financial press headlines have focused on a stronger US growth backdrop, among other factors. January NY Fed one-year inflation expectations remain unchanged from December, though still the lowest since November 2020, while three-year expectations are the lowest since March 2020.
Published 02/12/24