Episodes
A Fed rate hike, market tensions about tariffs, a Brexit transition deal and Bank of England hawkishness - Erik Norland of CME Group tells Roger Blitz why things are looking up for sterling and less promising for the greenback
Published 03/22/18
How big an impact is the prospect of an international trade dispute centred on US tariffs having on the foreign exchange market? Viraj Patel joins the FT's Michael Hunter to look at the main factors moving currencies, including economic fundamentals and the outlook for interest rates
Published 03/15/18
The European Central Bank is creeping towards the exit from super-stimulative monetary policy. How can it do this without sending the euro flying, particularly while US trade policy unnerves dollar bulls? Stephen Gallo from BMO Capital Markets talked to the FT's Katie Martin about Trump, trade, and taper tantrums.
Published 03/08/18
New Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell's optimistic view of the US economy and faster rate hikes caused stocks to sell off and the dollar to rise. But Jean Medecin of Carmignac thinks this outlook is too rosy, and that the world needs to get used to the idea of slowing global growth and static inflation.
Published 03/01/18
Federal Reserve hawkishness and market nerves have given the dollar a reprieve from depreciation, but reasons for its weakness far outweigh reasons why it may rebound. Bilal Hafeez of Nomura tells Roger Blitz that not only are we in a dollar bear market but we've been trading it for a year and it's got several years to go.
Published 02/22/18
Foreign exchange investors have sat out much of the recent market volatility. Roger Hallam of JPMorgan Asset Management joins Michael Hunter to look at why dollar weakness has proved so stubborn and to identify the‎ wider market trends.
Published 02/15/18
Was it a market turmoil, a crash? Or just a jolt, a correction? Whatever your description of this week's equities sell-off, it adds up to a healthy adjustment to a market that is better placed for volatility, as the world gets used to rising inflation and rate rises. That's the view of Max Kettner of Commerzbank, who also discusses with Roger Blitz the surprisingly hawkish Bank of England meeting and the fluctuating dollar 
Published 02/08/18
The apparent fondness for a weaker dollar among US administration officials has been enough to prompt HSBC's David Bloom to rip up his forecasts. But he tells Katie Martin that this is no currency war. In fact, currencies are on a path to peace and harmony.
Published 02/01/18
US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin sent forex traders' screens into meltdown when he said a weak dollar was in US interests. With trade tensions adding to currency volatility, Tim Graf of State Street talks to Roger Blitz about how much more the dollar could suffer from this double whammy, how Europe and China might respond and whether the gains being enjoyed by the euro, the yen and sterling are justified. 
Published 01/25/18
2018 has so far seen the dollar fall - but why? Rising Treasury yields, strong US growth and a Federal Reserve all set to raise rates three times this year should be giving the greenback some impetus, but the opposite is happening. Adam Cole of Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets admits it is hard to understand, but tells Roger Blitz why it may be happening, and looks ahead to next week's keenly-anticipated European Central Bank meeting
Published 01/18/18
Data, rumours and policy announcements big and small caused notable forex moves, including swings towards the euro and the yen, as investors rushed to grab the initiative at the start of 2018. Viraj Patel of ING sifts through the evidence and tells Roger Blitz which currency he thinks is this year's one to watch 
Published 01/11/18
2017 was a year of transition, says Nick Gartside of JP Morgan Asset Management, as growth became more global and central banks adjusted monetary policy towards normalisation. That sets up 2018 as a year for accelerated growth and rising inflation, he tells Roger Blitz, and that means the euro is going to grow further at the dollar's expense as the ECB steps up tapering. 
Published 12/14/17
BNY Mellon's Simon Derrick talks to Katie Martin about the curious case of stable sterling, the pending wave of tighter monetary policy, and the hidden signs of nerves in global markets.
Published 12/07/17
Roger Blitz discusses the impact on the currency markets of signs of Brexit breakthroughs and movement on US tax cuts with Richard Benson of Millennium Global. 
Published 11/30/17
The German chancellor's coalition problems had only a fleeting impact on the euro, as investors were more interested in rising business confidence in the eurozone. George Papamarkakis of North Asset Management tells Roger Blitz why the single currency is in good shape and why the Swedish krona is also heading higher despite a big fall this week
Published 11/23/17
Market jitters have hit equities, junk bonds and emerging market currencies. Is this something for forex investors and others to worry about? No, State Street's Michael Metcalfe tells Roger Blitz, but although the global economy remains in "Goldilocks" territory, surprise upside inflation data could change all that. 
Published 11/16/17
Donald Trump's election victory 12 months ago set off a dollar rally and protectionism fears, and heightened political risk in Europe. Roger Blitz asks Eoin Murray of Hermes Investment Management whether markets are more immune to shock, if benign forex conditions will last and what to watch out for in 2018.
Published 11/09/17
The first Bank of England rates hike in a decade left forex investors underwhelmed. With the economy sluggish and wage growth limited, John Wraith of UBS tells Roger Blitz why BoE governor Mark Carney is risking a policy mistake
Published 11/02/17
In the week the European Central Bank outlined its plans to wind down stimulus, Stephen Gallo of the Bank of Montreal joins Michael Hunter to tune into the signals hidden in the noise
Published 10/26/17
Investors couldn't help notice the impasse in negotiations over Nafta, Brexit and Catalonia, but did they care very much? Michael Sneyd of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz why the foreign exchange market is more interested in central bank developments than talks deadlock 
Published 10/19/17
Investors brushed off the plunge in the lira as a Turkish difficulty rather than wider issues with emerging market currencies. Is EM FX less vulnerable these days to contagion, or are there more pressing worries for EM, such as a rising dollar, China growth concerns and commodity price movements? Sergei Strigo of asset manager Amundi discusses its prospects with Roger Blitz
Published 10/12/17
Whether it is the choice of Federal Reserve chair, Japan's election, Theresa May's chaotic speech or Catalonia's bid for independence, leadership has been the dominant theme moving currencies, as Itay Tuchman of Citigroup explains to Roger Blitz
Published 10/05/17
Politics was the driver of the forex market at the start of the year, but its influence is now waning, says HSBC's David Bloom. Investors are far more focused on monetary policy and interest rate differentials, he tells Roger Blitz, although pockets of political risk persist
Published 09/28/17
A hawkish Federal Reserve pushed the dollar higher, but investors stopped short of igniting a full-throttle greenback rally. That is because their focus is on the interest rate deliberations of other central banks, Swissquote's Peter Rosenstreich tells Roger Blitz, with the European Central Bank the one being watched most closely
Published 09/21/17
The Bank of England is leaning towards a rate hike, pushing the pound higher. But does UK data justify the bank's hawkishness, and is sterling's elevated level warranted in the context of ongoing Brexit uncertainty? Jeremy Cook of World First talks to Roger Blitz about BoE governor Mark Carney's options.
Published 09/14/17