The US currency's ascent in 2018 has surprised many analysts and investors. The reflation trade that followed the election of Donald Trump was not expected to last. Stephen Gallo of the Bank of Montreal tells Michael Hunter why the rally has endured, and outlines the wider factors setting the pace for the euro, emerging market currencies and the pound.
This is the final edition of Hard Currency before the podcast is relaunched, taking a fresh approach to a wider range of markets. Please...
A Federal Reserve rate rise had little impact on the dollar while ECB president Mario Draghi drove the euro higher with optimistic comments on eurozone wages and inflation. But is that enough for a sustained market push to buy euros and sell dollars? Jeremy Thomson-Cook of World First gives his thoughts to Roger Blitz and looks at the the effect of growing trade tensions on emerging market currencies
Trade tensions are hotting up, Brexit talks are souring and the Federal Reserve is gearing up for another rate hike, yet currencies in the firing line, from emerging markets to sterling, seem unperturbed. Jane Foley of Rabobank tells Roger Blitz why currency moves are not reverting to type
Inflation strength in Europe and the the UK and weakness in the US were important factors in forex as central banks took centre stage, while Turkey's big interest rate rise helped stabilise emerging markets. Kamal Sharma of BofA Merrill Lynch tells Roger Blitz what that means for the dollar, the euro and the pound, and whether EM currencies are out of the woods
A week dominated by falls in emerging market currencies, notably the South African rand, is triggering another bout of concern that the problems that afflicted the Argentine peso and the Turkish lira this year are becoming contagious. Kit Juckes of Société Générale discusses with Roger Blitz the reasons why EM are again under pressure and what it would take for their currencies to gain some respite
The British pound, Argentina's peso and Turkey's lira: all of them in the news and all getting pushed around (albeit in different directions) by politics. Katie Martin talks to Eoin Murray, head of investment at Hermes, about what the moves are telling us and what these shocks tell us about global market conditions.
The dollar came under pressure on two fronts this week - Donald Trump's impeachment risk and the president's disparaging remarks about the Federal Reserve for raising US interest rates. But it is the Fed's own views, with a tilt to the dovish side, that should see the dollar lose the momentum of recent months, Société Générale's Alvin Tan tells Roger Blitz. That should mean renewed strength for the euro and yen, but not necessarily for emerging market currencies.
Turkey's troubled lira, worries about emerging market currencies and the impact of sanctions and tariffs on the rouble and renminbi have put foreign exchange at the heart of the financial market's traditional August anxiety. Derek Halpenny of MUFG discusses with Roger Blitz the longer term implications of the weeks of summer turmoil, and offers a note of caution on the rising dollar
Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell this week injected renewed vigour into the dollar, while weak data and Brexit woes undermined the pound. David Bloom of HSBC tells Roger Blitz why the case for continued dollar strength is more convincing than the case for further sterling weakness.
Investors treated the UK foreign secretary's resignation with little concern, leaving the pound poised for a rally as the prospect of a softer Brexit looms into view. Ugo Lancioni of Neuberger Berman tells Roger Blitz why he is a buyer of sterling, and looks at the implications of trade tensions on the market
China's central bank verbally intervened to stabilise the renminbi after a fall that echoed the dramatic declines of 2015-16. Stephen Gallo of Bank of Montreal tells Roger Blitz what we learned about China's currency strategy and argues that G10 policy normalisation is back on track, which should see the euro push higher
Investors have barely had time to acknowledge that there is an EU summit taking place, as trade wars and China worries occupy their thoughts. But as John Wraith of UBS tells Roger Blitz, that's not to say they are complacent about the implications of a slowing eurozone economy and rising populism on the continent
The emerging markets sell-off is starting to weigh on Asian currencies. Mansoor Mohi-uddin of NatWest Markets explores the reasons with Roger Blitz, looking at the impact of trade tensions on China and Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell's ambivalence towards EM economies
A big week in the policy making world saw the US Federal Reserve plough on with rate hikes while the European Central Bank took a more dovish approach, even though it set a timetable for the end of asset purchases. Michael Sneyd of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz what that means for the euro and the dollar.
European Central Bank policymakers warmed up investors to a potentially big announcement next week on asset purchases and normalisation, sending the euro higher. Does this mark the end of the dollar rally? Not so fast, Rabobank's Jane Foley tells Roger Blitz - there is less to this ECB strategy shift than meets the eye.
Markets were guilty of complacency about Italy, says Adrian Hilton of Columbia Threadneedle, failing to appreciate the existential threat to the euro. He tells Roger Blitz what this week's fallout in bonds and currencies means for investors' risk appetite for the rest of 2018
The Turkish lira's collapse has emerging market investors wondering whether there is any case for continuing to hold assets there. Yerlan Syzdykov of European asset manager Amundi, who was among those investors to lunch with president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in London last week, examines the pros and cons with Roger Blitz
Local factors are contributing to sharp falls in the currencies of Argentina and Turkey, but other emerging markets cannot escape the impact of the dollar's strength. Simon Quijano-Evans of Legal & General Investment Management looks at the implications for EM and tells Roger Blitz why the US cannot ignore the sell-off for too long
The rout in emerging market currencies has exposed investors to an uncomfortable realisation - they were too willing to buy the EM rally at the start of the year, says Roger Hallam of JP Morgan Asset Management. He spells out to Roger Blitz the lessons of this episode
The sharp rally in the dollar has investors asking whether it is sustainable or about to fizzle out. Simon Derrick of BNY Mellon has the answer, and as he tells Roger Blitz it’s all to do with yield.
A rising dollar and a rising oil price are two of the big market moves of the week. But as Bill McQuaker of Fidelity International tells Roger Blitz, the biggest was the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 3 per cent, signalling the end of the bond bull market and the start of a more turbulent phase for markets.
Despite global growth, investors are struggling to find a driver, not just in foreign exchange but in other markets. What's causing this doubt and introspection? Helen Thomas of macro-economic consultancy Blonde Money tells Roger Blitz that three market tremors of recent weeks, related to electronically-traded funds, are behind investor uncertainty
With some notable exceptions, currencies are spookily quiet in the middle of tensions over trade, signs of slowing growth in Europe, and the ever-present risk that Twitter spats could spiral into geopolitical crises. But Tim Graf of State Street Global Markets tells Katie Martin that's what currencies are supposed to do. Embrace the calm, but keep an eye on the Turkish lira and rouble.
Trade tensions and equity sell-offs should be making investors wary of risky emerging market assets. But Wike Groenenberg of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz why EM is proving resilient to market pressures and looks at the factors that will influence its performance for the rest of the year
January's euphoria seems a world away as volatility infects markets, but Silvia Dall'Angelo of Hermes Investment Management tells Roger Blitz that economic fundamentals are still sound and the dollar remains under pressure. The big worry, however, is a widening trade war.