In today's episode, Vadim provides a comprehensive discussion on housing affordability, the impact of rising insurance premiums, and a surprising increase in mortgage counts, despite economic headwinds. Vadim highlights essential insights on LTV and DTI ratios in recent originations, alongside the evolving role of insurance costs on market stability, especially in regions like Florida. As prepayment rates reach near-record lows and delinquency rates hold steady, Vadim unpacks why this might s...

In this episode, Vadim dives into the financial condition of U.S. households, exploring the nuances behind household balance sheets, consumer debt, and the surprising resilience of Gen Z and millennials. He unpacks the contrast between media narratives and the actual financial positions of American households, highlighting the significant growth in net worth, especially among lower-income groups. The discussion covers a wide array of topics, including housing costs in the U.S. compared to oth...

Vadim examines TransUnion data to discuss YoY trends in credit cards and auto loans. While subprime borrowers continue to drive overall DQ rates and credit card growth, regional analysis reveals significant weaker performance in certain states. In this episode, Vadim dives into a valuable metric, Average Excess Payment ("AEP"), which is an indicator of a consumer's ability to manage debt payment as it represents consumers who do not pay their credit card bills in full yet pay beyond the minim...

Vadim dives into housing affordability, focusing on the impact of rising insurance payments—particularly in Florida, the impact of FEMA's updated risk scores on insurance premiums trends, mortgage volume and the implications of low existing home sales and inventory levels, and overall mortgage performance behavior.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and...

In this episode, Vadim is joined by Matt Edgar, Founder & CEO of Edgar Matthews & Co, a full-service, independent investment and merchant bank focused on the middle market.The pair discuss market observations in asset-backed lending, focusing on the complementary roles of private and public asset-based lending markets, and the increasing interest from insurance investors in asset-based finance. Key points include the robust activity in consumer installment lending and BNPL platf...

In the latest podcast episode, we explore a novel method of analyzing government debt, highlighting how, despite rising federal debt, the aggregate U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP fell from 2006 to 2019 and only increased in 2020 due to substantial pandemic-related fiscal measures. This holistic perspective also reveals that while U.S. asset values have significantly outpaced debt growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio remains only slightly above its 2006 levels, at 236%.  We also discuss trends in...

In this episode, Vadim is joined by Adelina Grozdanova, Co-Founder of Upgrade, to discuss all things consumer credit and the American consumer. Discussion includes, factors behind the dramatic volume declines of unsecured personal loans, how the record-high US credit card rates create opportunity to refinance using installment loans, and how Upgrade is positioning itself as a leading fintech by offering multiple products, including auto. Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on...

dv01's quarterly update on consumer credit performance continues. Vadim looks at data through September 30, 2023 and discusses trends in Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages. Cited Research  dv01: Non-QM Performance Report, October 2023dv01: Consumer Unsecured and Subprime Auto Performance Report, October 2023Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going...

The RMBS market, specifically Non-QM, is showing signs of recovery and growth following the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid rising rates, Non-QM is facing unique challenges and opportunities not present in the broader mortgage market. The upswing in mortgage rates has led the origination channel to shift its focus towards Non-QM, providing a favorable tailwind for future sector growth and market penetration. On the flip side, delinquencies are beginning to rise in Non-QM unlike the broad mortgage...

dv01's quarterly update on consumer credit performance continues. Vadim looks at data through June 30, 2023 and discusses trends in Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages, including: The Consumer Unsecured sector continue to tighten its credit box, with more lending going to borrowers with higher creditworthiness.Performance of Subprime Auto loans continues to worsen.Delinquencies for Non-QM Mortgages are at near-record lows. Cited Research  dv01: Non-QM...

Understanding the factors driving regional affordability—supply and demand imbalances, zoning restrictions, building regulations, economic opportunities, culture, and climate—is crucial for portfolio and risk valuation. In this episode, dv01 argues that affordability challenges are far more regionally concentrated than they've ever been. Cited Research dv01: Housing Affordability and Portfolio RiskBlackKnight: Mortgage MonitorRedFin: Housing Market DataSubscribe to our free research to stay...

Did you know that in Q1-2023, stocks for all the large credit card companies went up, despite missing EPS on higher provisions? In today’s episode, Vadim welcomes special guest John Hecht, a managing director at Jefferies, to discuss Q1-2023 trends, if the banking crisis has dented consumer credit growth, analysis that the market is misunderstanding, and more. Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you...

Did you know nearly 50% of outstanding student debt is a result of graduate school? In this episode, dv01 examines the debt and wage trends across age cohorts—namely Gen Z and Millennials—highlighting wage growth, homeownership, and student debt levels. Cited research is found below. Cited Research: dv01: The Kids Might Be...All Right? Examining the Economic Landscape of America's Youngest GenerationsNY Fed: Center for Microeconomic DataFederal Reserve: Distributional Financial...

In this episode, dv01 evaluates consumer credit performance across Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages. Trends are predominately over the past 12 months, but also highlight historical performance and some origination trends. Cited research is found below. Cited Research: dv01: The Kids Might Be...All Right? Examining the Economic Landscape of America's Youngest Generationsdv01: Performance of Consumer Unsecured & Subprime Auto LoansNew York Fed: Quarterly...

The U.S. Personal Saving Rate is a highly cited source for understanding consumers' balance sheet—but is it really indicative of consumers' overall financial health? In this episode, dv01 dives into The Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts ("DFA") to understand what consumer balance sheets look like today, whether consumers' finances have deteriorated over time (by income percentiles), and why the DFA is a better dataset to gauge consumer financial health. Subscribe to our...