Description
Resilience and Resistance Post-Raisi: A Data-Centric Approach to Iran
The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19, 2024, may provide an opportunity to usher in a new destiny for the Iranian people. Many considered the hard-liner to be the Supreme Leader Khamenei’s enforcer in consolidating the clerics’ power through the executions of dissidents and the jailing of political prisoners. He mobilized America’s rivals by pursuing a military alliance with Russia and economic ties with China to weaken the grip of Western political and commercial dominance in the region. The former president was the mastermind of a proxy-based militarization campaign to make a Western presence in the Middle East so costly that the United States and its allies would withdraw. Despite the recent escalation of hostilities against Israel and the West, the United States remains committed to maintaining a forward presence to strengthen regional partnerships and protect vital trade routes.
The Islamic Republic of Iran will choose a new President on June 28, 2024. Iran’s Guardian Council, a conservative 12-member oversight board, chose six candidates: 5 far-right hardliners and one moderate, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is open to renewed diplomacy with the United States. The high popularity of Pezeshkian is a sign of the Iran people’s desire to seek less stringent Islamic codes and friendlier relations with the West. The election outcome is uncertain. The Supreme Council’s biased support toward and election of a far-right candidate may widen the prevalent trust gap and ignite widespread protest. Still, the successful election of the moderate may present a renewed opportunity to reduce historical tensions and establish a pro-Western partnership. This election presents an excellent opportunity to review our foreign policy stance and strategize our approach no matter the election’s direction.
by Alexandra Veyne, the Chief Human Resources Officer of the Irregular Warfare Initiative.
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