by Alexandra Veyne, the Chief Human Resources Officer of the Irregular Warfare Initiative.   In this analysis of Hezbollah's leadership crisis, Alexandra Veyne examines the strategic implications of Hassan Nasrallah's elimination and his successor Naim Qassem's appointment. She argues that Qassem's lack of charisma and weaker leadership profile could prove more devastating to Hezbollah than continued tactical strikes. Drawing on Shi'i political dynamics and organizational theory, Veyne...

This article is part of Project Cyber, which explores and characterizes the myriad threats facing the United States and its allies in cyberspace, the information environment, and conventional and irregular spaces. Please contact us if you would like to propose an article, podcast, or event environment. We invite you to contribute to the discussion, explore the difficult questions, and help.   This essay examines the debate around adopting a Special Operations Command (SOCOM)-like model for...

Peter Schrijver is a Ph.D. researcher affiliated with the Netherlands Defence Academy. His academic interests focus on Ukraine’s operations in the information environment.   This essay analyzes Ukraine's "I Want to Live" project, a modern psychological operations (PSYOP) campaign that uses smartphones and social media to encourage Russian soldiers to surrender. The project, launched in September 2022, represents a significant evolution in military PSYOPs by leveraging digital technology to...

by Amir Asmar, a former senior executive and Middle East analyst in the US Department of Defense.   Amir Asmar examines Israel's latest military campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah and what it reveals about the limitations of military solutions to fundamentally political problems. Drawing on decades of experience as a Middle East analyst, Asmar traces how Israel's repeated military interventions in Lebanon have often strengthened rather than weakened its adversaries, while arguing that...

by Doug Livermore the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative.   In this eye-opening analysis, Doug Livermore examines Ukraine's sophisticated sabotage campaign against Russia's railway infrastructure and its critical impact on the war effort. Drawing parallels to World War II resistance operations, the article details how Ukrainian special forces and intelligence services work with both Ukrainian and Russian partisan groups to exploit vulnerabilities in Russia's...

By Austin Wesley, a US Army officer.   This essay argues that the US Army must break its cycle of neglecting irregular warfare (IW) by fully integrating IW concepts into its Professional Military Education (PME) for conventional forces. Drawing lessons from Vietnam and Iraq, the author demonstrates how the Army's focus on Large Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) has repeatedly left it unprepared for irregular conflicts. The piece emphasizes that IW is not solely the domain of Special Operations...

By Anthony Marco a US Army officer and advisor to the Irregular Warfare Initiative's Proxies and Partners Special Project. This article is part of Project Proxies and Partners, which explores the promises and pitfalls of security cooperation in war, at peace, and in between.   Anthony Marco examines the complex security challenges facing Jordan, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East. Marco analyzes how Iran, Hamas, and the Muslim Brotherhood are leveraging hybrid warfare tactics, including...

by Doug Livermore the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative.   This essay analyzes Israel's recent strikes against Iran's proxy forces, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. It examines the strategic implications of these operations, which have significantly degraded Tehran's regional influence network. The author explores Iran's limited response options, constrained by the loss of key proxy capabilities, internal instability, and the threat of overwhelming...

By Tobias Bernard Switzer, the Editorial Director of the Irregular Warfare Initiative   When a new American president takes office on January 20th, they will confront a dangerous national security environment shaped by Irregular Warfare (IW) challenges. From cyber warfare and gray zone conflicts to terrorism and insurgency, these challenges demand immediate, actionable solutions. The Irregular Warfare Initiative invites you to contribute fresh, pragmatic, and non-partisan policy...

by Dalton T. Fuss, a US Army Special Forces Officer, and Nakissa P. Jahanbani, a senior analyst at the Afghanistan War Commission, as a part of Project Proxies and Partners   This essay examines the shortcomings in U.S. strategies against the Wagner Group and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It highlights two key issues: these groups' ability to operate in obscure regions with little scrutiny, and the U.S. government's poor coordination of its national assets. The authors...

Shining a Light: Highlighting Successes in US Counterstrategies Against the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Russian Wagner Group   by Dalton T. Fuss, a US Army Special Forces Officer, and Nakissa P. Jahanbani, a senior analyst at the Afghanistan War Commission, as a part of Project Proxies and Partners   This essay, the first installment of a two-part series, examines successful US counterstrategies against the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Russian...

Autonomous Ghosts are Reshaping Irregular Warfare and Maritime Security by Laurel Baker the 2024 Rising Expert on Geostrategy in the Rising Experts Program at Young Professionals in Foreign Policy in collaboration with the Irregular Warfare Initiative's Project Maritime. Baker works for the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory as a National Nuclear Security Administration Graduate Fellow.   Laurel Baker explores the emerging threat of unmanned maritime vehicles (UMVs) and their profound...

Uprooting the Enemy: A New Paradigm for Irregular Warfare Analysis by Nicholas Krohley founder of Frontline Advisory. This article and accompanying report are a part of Project SOF in Competition. The report titled Integrated Understanding: Re-Thinking the Human Environment of Military Operations, is the first of the Irregular Warfare Initiative's occasional paper series.   Nicholas Krohley argues for the professionalization of analytical approaches in irregular warfare. He contends that...

Burma's Quest for Drone Supremacy: A Cautionary Tale by Beau Chapman, Alexander Suster, and Steven Ahart from the University of Texas Austin's Global Disinformation Lab in collaboration with the Irregular Warfare Initiative's Project Air and Space Power.   Burma's military junta, in its desperate bid to maintain power, has embarked on a complex and controversial journey into the world of drone warfare. From ambitious domestic production plans to covert international dealings, the regime's...

Seize the Advantage: Three Models to Improve Security Cooperation Planning In this essay, James P. Micciche, a US Army Strategist, presents a comprehensive framework for improving security cooperation planning and execution in support of U.S. defense strategy. He proposes three interconnected models: one that emphasizes clearly defined objectives tied to policy goals, another that focuses on understanding the operating environment with particular attention to partner nations' capabilities and...

  The Peril of Ignoring the Legitimacy of Violent Non-State Actors This episode explores the often-overlooked legitimacy of violent non-state actors and its implications for international security. We delve into how insurgent groups gain support from local populations and why current approaches to countering them often fall short. Our experts discuss case studies from ISIS to African separatist movements, offering insights on how democracies can more effectively address the root causes of...

By Antonio Salinas   The Cacti and the Grass: The Collapse of Afghanistan's Security Forces Antonio Salinas offers a unique perspective on the collapse of the Afghan National Defense Security Forces (ANDSF) following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Through his "Cacti and Grass" analogy, Salinas illustrates how the U.S. attempted to cultivate a Western-style security force in an environment fundamentally unsuited for such structures. Drawing from his personal experiences and extensive...

by Christopher Booth Editor’s Note I: This article is part of IWI’s Project Maritime, a series exploring the intersection of irregular warfare and the modern maritime dimension. Focusing on current events and their underlying geographical and historical patterns, we aim to contextualize the drivers of conflict in the maritime domain and inspire dialogue on integrated statecraft approaches. We warmly invite your participation and engagement. Please send submissions to Submit An Article with...

Analysis of cyber strategies used by China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran to challenge global stability and security.

Beijing’s Long Game: Gray Zone Tactics in the Pacific Published July 25th, 2024 By Brandon Tran “During the progress of hostilities, guerillas gradually develop into orthodox forces that operate in conjunction with other units of the regular army… There can be no doubt that the ultimate result of this will be victory.” -On Guerilla Warfare, by Mao Zedong The expulsion of former Chinese defense ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on June 27, 2024, is...

Irregular Warfare in the 21st Century: Autocracy’s Global Playbook July 16, 2024 by Ania Zolyniak Anne Applebaum, Autocracy, Inc. The Dictators Who Want to Run the World, (Penguin Random House 2024) Irregular warfare (IW), often hailed as the oldest form of warfare, remains an enigma within the US defense apparatus and government at large. The Department of Defense (DoD) offers conflicting definitions, while Congress’s attempt at clarification in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)...

Social media is revolutionizing modern insurgencies, transforming recruitment strategies, operational tactics, and the very nature of conflict. From the Mumbai attacks to ISIS’s global recruitment campaigns, the article examines how digital platforms have become the new frontlines of warfare. It delves into the double-edged sword of connectivity, discussing how the same tools that empower insurgents also expose them to counterintelligence efforts. Looking ahead, the essay considers the...

Resilience and Resistance Post-Raisi: A Data-Centric Approach to Iran The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19, 2024, may provide an opportunity to usher in a new destiny for the Iranian people. Many considered the hard-liner to be the Supreme Leader Khamenei’s enforcer in consolidating the clerics’ power through the executions of dissidents and the jailing of political prisoners. He mobilized America’s rivals by pursuing a military alliance with...

What would the most destructive and costly cyberattack in history look like? The Department of the Treasury is exploring a federal mechanism for providing relief capital to the insurance industry in the event of a major cyber catastrophe. While the prospect of a cyber incident sinking the insurance industry and leaving society exposed is intensely remote, it highlights an underlying problem with our understanding of the destructive capacity of cyberattacks—hyperbole. If the terror attacks...