Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model View video here

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election. View video here

This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. View video here

Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities. View video here

This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality. View video here

A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien View video here

The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets. View video here

Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024. View transcript View the video here

A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit View video here

Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets View transcript View video here

Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness. View transcript View video here View deck here

I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. View transcript View video and charts here

Global resilience to higher rates View transcript View video and charts here

The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs View transcript with chart references

Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while View transcript with chart references

Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefulness as a business cycle indicator is affected by China’s reopening and the copper intensity of...

Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.  This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for critical minerals, the improving economics of energy storage and heat pumps, the transmission quagmire, energy from municipal waste, carbon...

The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans. View transcript with chart references

The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it View transcript with the chart references

The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins View transcript with chart references     

Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule

In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking about when equities could bottom, the first chart below projects the ISM survey by looking at new orders and inventories. Using this crude approach,...