Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more.  Steve and Stephen discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background 5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets 11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement 20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration 23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement 27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions 30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets 31:47 Dating markets 32:53 The Art of PR 38:32 Global reach and community engagement 39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions 43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuff Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/ Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.  Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.