Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system. Steve and Glenn discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China (07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy (14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture Capital (23:08) - Founding a Healthcare Startup and Entrepreneurial Ventures (26:35) - China's...

Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth! Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site. March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from...

Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/ Steve and Russell discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan 13:25 Hong Kong and finance 31:53 China property bubble 48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency 56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective 1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro...

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more.  Steve and Stephen discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background 5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets 11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement 20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration 23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement 27:31 Revenue streams and future...

Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief. He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in...

Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it? Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing Further discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question:...

Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement. More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4 00:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history 14:21 Sean's personal journey and career 21:28 Political journey and decision to...

TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology. Previous episodes with TP include: China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/huawei-and-the-us-china-chip-war-44Steve and TP discuss:  (00:00) - Introduction (02:23) - Hypersonic...

Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies. https://research.gavekal.com/ Steve and Louis discuss: (00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer (14:42) - Founding Gavekal (23:50) - Understanding China economic growth (32:57) - China real estate market (42:48) - The impact of China’s economic growth (48:19) - Comparing the size of the Chinese and U.S. economies (01:07:09)...

Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry. Lynk - https://lynk.world/ Steve and Charles discuss: 0:00 Introduction and guest background 1:27 Miller's early passion for space 3:54 Evolution of commercial space 6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX 8:01 The challenges of early stage startups 11:26 The birth of Lynk, its technical challenges, and breakthroughs 33:11 Use cases for satellite connectivity 35:20...

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang. 0:00 Introduction 2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles 6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market 9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market 14:41 Buying a car in China 27:05 China dominates with electric vehicle batteries 30:44 The challenges facing Tesla in China 40:11 The evolution...

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. Follow him on X @TaylorOgan. Steve and Taylor discuss:  0:00 Introduction1:02 Taylor's background and why he moved his firm to China20:43 China post-pandemic and economic dynamism33:43 China dominance in electric vehicles; LIDAR56:55 Investment research: factory and site visits1:06:52 US-China competition - the future of innovation is in China Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream...

Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security. Karnad's blog: https://bharatkarnad.com/ Karnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists:https://bharatkarnad.com/2020/12/06/kill-scientists-disrupt-n-weapons-programmes/ An excellent documentary film on the life of Indian...

Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His new book is The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline. Steve and Yasheng discuss: 0:00 Introduction1:11 From Beijing to Harvard in the 1980s15:29 Civil service exams and Huang's new book, "The Rise and Fall of the EAST"37:14 Two goals: Developing human capital and...

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang. Steve and TP discuss: 0:00 Introduction: TP Huang and semiconductor technology 5:40 Huawei’s new phone and SoC 23:19 SMIC 7nm chip production in China: Yield and economics 28:21 Impact on Qualcomm 36:08 U.S. sanctions solved the coordination problem for China semiconductor companies 42:48 5G modem and RF chips: impact on Qualcomm, Broadcom, Apple, etc. 47:14 5G and...

Steve discusses 10 key graphs related to meritocracy and university admissions. Predictive power of SATs and other factors in elite admissions decisions. College learning outcomes - what do students learn? The four paths to elite college admission. Laundering prestige at the Ivies. Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1n-nwoeKe_DcA5tJxTwqTeZBEY7nObxkujKLxVfAzRAY/edit?usp=sharing CLA and College Learning...

Aella is a sex worker, sex researcher, and data scientist. Aella on X: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl Interviews with ex-prostitutes on the pimp life (Las Vegas) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAlXdyjmWUo&ab_channel=PeterSantenello An earlier Aella interview with Reason: https://reason.com/podcast/2022/04/27/aella-libertarian-sex-worker-turned-data-scientist/ Steve and Aella discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:22) - Aella's background and upbringing (12:45) - Aella's experiences as a...

Tim Dettmers develops computationally efficient methods for deep learning. He is a leader in quantization: coarse graining of large neural networks to increase speed and reduce hardware requirements. Tim developed 4-and 8-bit quantizations enabling training and inference with large language models on affordable GPUs and CPUs - i.e., as commonly found in home gaming rigs. Tim and Steve discuss: Tim's background and current research program, large language models, quantization and performance,...

Paul Huang is a journalist and research fellow with the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation. He is currently based in Taipei, Taiwan. Sample articles: Taiwan’s Military Has Flashy American Weapons but No Ammo (in Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/ Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell (Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/ Steve and Paul...

Steve Hsu, Richard Hanania, and Rob Henderson were scheduled for a June 2023 panel as part of the University of Austin (UATX) Forbidden Courses series. Steve missed the panel due to travel issues, but the three have gathered on this podcast to recreate the fun! They discuss: 0:00 Introduction1:20 The University of Austin and forbidden courses17:37 Will woke campus culture change anytime soon?29:57 Common people vs elites on affirmative action35:42 Why it’s uncomfortable to disagree about...

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern. Steve and Richard discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling in Students For Fair Admissions vs Harvard and UNC. Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences. 0:00 Introduction 1:09 Richard Sander’s initial reaction to the Supreme Court...

In this episode, Steve talks to three AI engineers from his startup SuperFocus.AI. 0:00 Introduction 1:06 The Google memo and open-source AI  14:41 Sparsification and the size of models: AI on your phone? 30:16 When will AI take over ordinary decision-making from humans? 34:50 Rapid advances in AI: a view from inside 41:28 AI Doomers and Alignment Links to earlier episodes on AI and LLMs. Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35:...

David Paul Goldman is an American economic strategist and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler with the first column published January 1, 2000. Steve and David discuss: 0:00 Introduction 2:22 David’s background in music, finance, and Asia 16:55 Looking back at the financial crisis 23:04 Rise of the Chinese economy 29:44 How Huawei’s strength is tied to China’s economic power 36:49 Competition in the global electric vehicles...

This week's episode is based on a lecture Steve gave to an audience of theoretical physicists at Oxford University. The topic is artificial intelligence and large language models. Lecture slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1xiMeeRMVpB-_W66BnyRyUAtrLlUwQNlndqbVcguKK8U/edit?usp=sharing Chapter markers: 0:00 Introduction 2:31 Deep Learning and Neural Networks; history and mathematical results 21:15 Embedding space, word vectors 31:53 Next word prediction as objective function 34:08...