(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China (02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality (06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing (15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture (22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite (27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China (33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on semiconductor industry (35:46) - Quiet confidence in China's technological advancements (37:17) -...

Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking. Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/   Chapters: 00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi01:39 What it's like in Beijing right now 06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing 12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people 19:09...

This is a crossover episode with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast.   (00:00) - Iranian missile attack vs Israel and missile defense (13:10) - Is there potential for a 1973-style oil crisis? (21:41) - Is NATO getting tired of the proxy war in Ukraine? (25:43) - Why has Europe declined relatively since 2008 and what are the consequences of said decline? (30:13) - Is procyclical European fiscal policy to blame? (34:51) - Has China's infrastructure boom been a white elephant? (41:37) -...

Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social...

This is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina. I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites! Deus Ex Machina podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw… Timestamps: (00:00) - Growing up in Iowa. Athletics, Chinese culture. KMT and military family background. (11:48) - Hearing about the Cultural Revolution from my dad: his family experienced it...

This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition. Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853 Steve and Alf discuss: (00:00) - Introduction to the Podcast Collaboration (00:48) - Steve Hsu's Background and Expertise (02:22) - US-China Geopolitical Dynamics (28:44) - China's Political System: Meritocracy vs....

This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik. Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica 00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland 02:04 deCODE genetics  05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik 11:56 Hyperscaling genAI 23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling 24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI? 29:45 Quantum black holes Music used with permission...

Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism. Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson "When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU 0:00...

Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture. 00:00 Introduction 02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble 08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War 16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US 20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and...

Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18 Chapter markers: (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome (02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception (06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom (21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism (35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide (54:30) - Future of Academia and Closing Thoughts Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream...

Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley. Chapters: (00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley (01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley (04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI (23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications (34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Awareness (51:00) - China LLMs, Huawei vs Nvidia GPUs, US vs China AI race Links: Scaling Laws for Neural...

Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.comPhilippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43 (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (00:54) - Philippe's Academic Journey (08:29) - Philosophical Insights and Career Shift: Public Intellectual (46:17) - Russian Energy and European...

Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s...

Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X. Molson Hart on X: https://x.com/Molson_HartAmazon Documentary:...

Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic. Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States. Steve and Jaan discuss: 00:00 Introduction 00:33 Jaan Tallinn: AI...

Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system. Steve and Glenn discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China (07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy (14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture Capital (23:08) - Founding a Healthcare Startup and Entrepreneurial Ventures (26:35) - China's...

Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth! Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site. March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from...

Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/ Steve and Russell discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan 13:25 Hong Kong and finance 31:53 China property bubble 48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency 56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective 1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro...

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more.  Steve and Stephen discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background 5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets 11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement 20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration 23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement 27:31 Revenue streams and future...

Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief. He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in...

Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it? Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing Further discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question:...

Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement. More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4 00:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history 14:21 Sean's personal journey and career 21:28 Political journey and decision to...

TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology. Previous episodes with TP include: China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/huawei-and-the-us-china-chip-war-44Steve and TP discuss:  (00:00) - Introduction (02:23) - Hypersonic...

Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies. https://research.gavekal.com/ Steve and Louis discuss: (00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer (14:42) - Founding Gavekal (23:50) - Understanding China economic growth (32:57) - China real estate market (42:48) - The impact of China’s economic growth (48:19) - Comparing the size of the Chinese and U.S. economies (01:07:09)...