Donald Trump's first stint as president – with his “America First” stance and isolationist foreign policy – disrupted relations between the US and Europe, especially over NATO, trade, and the climate. Now the world is faced with further challenges, such as the war in Ukraine: and Trump’s return could prompt European countries to seek greater military and economic independence from the US while collaborating to become a more unified front. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of...

On 6 November, the same day that Donald Trump was re-elected as US president, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed his minister of finance, Christian Lindner – and the country’s ‘traffic light’ coalition government collapsed. Since then, an interim government has been in place: but its future is uncertain amid a rapidly changing world. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR’s editorial director, Janka Oertel, ECFR senior policy fellow and director of its Asia programme,...

The polls have closed, the counting is almost over, and it is certain: there will be a second Donald Trump administration. With his historic and unprecedent second victory, the Republican party not only won the electoral college, but also regained control of the Senate – and look set to gain control of the House of Representatives and win the popular vote, too. In swing states Trump’s voter based turned out in force, while demographic shifts away from the Democrats paint a gloomy picture for...

The recent elections in Georgia and Moldova were marred by significant Russian interference, including disinformation campaigns and vote-buying. As the Kremlin seeks to undermine the candidate countries’ EU futures, Brussels needs to take action. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Tefta Kelmendi, deputy director of the ECFR Wider Europe Programme, and Nicu Popescu, distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss what was at stake in these elections. What do the results mean for Georgia and...

EU member states have voted to implement proposed tariffs of up to 45 per cent on Chinese electric vehicles. Germany was among five member states to vote against this, isolating itself among its counterparts. In response to the vote, China imposed anti-dumping measures on European brandy imports. But if geopolitical tensions escalate, the EU’s most substantial leverage might involve limiting China’s access to its markets. This week Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR geoeconomics...

Since the Sudanese civil war began in 2023, millions of people have been displaced, and thousands killed or injured: as European governments focus on crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, the brutal conflict has led to a humanitarian catastrophe. Now, while various actors such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States variously mediate in Sudan, Europe remains on the sideline. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Will Brown, senior policy fellow at ECFR’s Africa programme; Jonas Horner, ECFR...

One year on from the murderous attacks of 7 October 2023, the Middle East is in the middle of an escalating regional war. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme; Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme and Iran expert; and Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow in ECFR’s MENA programme and an expert on Israel-Palestine, to discuss the present and future of the Middle East. How will Israel respond to Iran’s recent attacks? Will it...

With only a month to go before the US election, much ink has been spilled writing about how US foreign policy might change if Trump returned to the White House. This is made easier because there is a wealth of information out there for analysts to go on. Harris, on the other hand, is a bit of a foreign policy enigma. With little to no foreign policy experience before becoming vice-president, she has stuck closely to the administration’s line on every major foreign policy issue of the Biden...

Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni is playing a central role in the country’s recent significant political developments. Her right-wing coalition government, which is inter alia focused on tightening immigration policies and promoting an Italian nationalist agenda, continues to draw national and international attention – as well as derision. But, despite her Eurosceptic stance, Meloni maintains a pragmatic approach in dealing with the European Union. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Lykke...

After a period of stalemate between Russia and Ukraine, direct military action has recommenced. Heightened tensions have led to discussions on Europe’s readiness for a ‘war economy’ and the United States is also reportedly considering lifting its ban on Ukraine’s use of American weapons to strike Russian territory; the Kremlin has responded with its usual bluster. But amid the rhetoric and battlefield manoeuvring, Ukraine’s leadership has also begun a tentative discussion regarding a...

It has been a momentous few weeks in German and French politics. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won its first state election – and achieved the German far-right’s best result since the second world war – in Thuringia with 33% of the vote; in Saxony, it came a close second to the Christian Democratic Union. In France, after weeks of uncertainty caused by a divided National Assembly, President Emmanuel Macron appointed Michel Barnier as the country’s prime minister. This week, Mark Leonard...

Russia is influential in international organisations: a permanent member of the UN Security Council, it also participates in geoeconomic groups such as the G20, and BRICS+. Regionally, Russia leads the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. But relations with Western organisations such as NATO and the EU are strained, and the G8 suspended Russia as a member following its invasion of Ukraine.  This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Sasha Gabuev, an expert on China...

In the run-up to America’s presidential election, ECFR’s US programme has launched a new podcast, “Swamp Chronicles”. The mini-series delves into the crucial discussions and deeper issues shaping the election, and moves beyond the usual campaign headlines to explores its potential impact on US foreign policy – and on Europe. Swamp Chronicles is hosted by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s director of research and head of the US...

South-east Asia is a culturally and geographically diverse region, notable for its proximity and economic ties to China. Though the political structure of the region’s 11 countries varies from democracy to autocracy, many cooperate through organisations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and BRICS. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Lynn Kuok, the Lee Kuan Yew Chair in Southeast Asian...

In American foreign policy debates, prioritisers argue that the US should focus on deterring Chinese expansion, consequently shifting its resources away from Europe and towards the Indo-Pacific. But questions are also emerging about the US presence in the Middle East, as well as the country’s commitment to NATO – which the looming election has thrown into uncertainty. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Alex Velez-Green, former national security adviser to Republican senator Josh Hawley, and...

In recent years, China has overtaken the United States as the largest trading partner of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Not only has Beijing played a bigger role in the region’s economic order, it is also taking the lead in creating new institutions in Asia. China is known for BRICS or its eponymous Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. But more recently, free trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement are bolstering China’s challenge...

The prisoner exchange between the West and Russia last week was the largest swap since the end of the cold war. At Turkey’s Ankara airport, Russia and Belarus released 16 detainees, while the United States, Poland, Germany, Slovenia, and Norway released 8. In this week’s Europe in 30 Minutes special episode, deputy director of ECFR Vessela Tcherneva welcomes welcomes distinguished policy fellow Camille Grand, who leads ECFR's defence intitative, senior policy fellow Gustav Gressel, who...

Brazil is a middle-power powerhouse. The largest and most populous country in Latin America, this founding member of BRICS+ wields strong cultural, economic, and diplomatic influence among other middle powers and beyond. No assessment of non-Western powers would be complete without a trip to Brazil. In this episode of our special Re:Order series, Mark Leonard welcomes bestselling author on Brazilian foreign policy, Matias Spektor, who is founder and professor at the School of International...

Following two years of research, ECFR has released its new book, “The Idea of China: Chinese Thinkers on Power, Progress, and People”. Whether demography, AI, feminism, or green transition philosophies, “The Idea of China” seeks to enhance Western understanding of the current discourses and debates within China. After all, a Chinese perspective on these global issues could become one of the country’s leading exports. In the latest episode of the World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard welcomes his...

As a founding member of BRICS and a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, India is a leading middle power. With its strategic geographic and economic position, and historical associations with the nonaligned movement, India cannot be ignored when discussing the world’s rapidly shifting global order.   In this episode of ‘The world after the West’ Re:Order series, Mark Leonard welcomes Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, the practice head for south Asia at the Eurasia Group to discuss the role of...

The 75th NATO summit has begun. Taking place in Washington, this year the conference welcomes new member country, Sweden, with talks focusing on how NATO allies can continue to defend Ukraine from Russian attacks. But, with a presidential election looming in November, it is unclear what the United States’ future position on NATO will be – and, if the US withdraws defence support, how exactly Europe will respond. Based on ECFR’s latest policy brief by distinguished policy fellow and former...

Against all the odds and polls, the French far-right party National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, landed in third place in the second round of the French snap election.  And in a runner-up upset for President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance, the left-wing alliance New Popular Front took the lead with 182 seats.  In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes the head of ECFR Paris and senior policy fellow Célia Belin to discuss the unexpected results of this...

After 14 years of Conservative government in the United Kingdom, the Labour Party is back. Dissatisfaction with economic and tax policies, various political scandals, and a growing distrust in the Conservative leadership have all contributed to a Labour majority in the UK parliament. And, while the new Labour-led cabinet has already distanced itself from the prospect of rejoining the European Union is now potential for greater economic cooperation and alignment in a post-Brexit EU-UK...

Iran plays a key role in the global order. The leadership in Tehran asserts Iran’s role in the Middle East through the backing of allied groups, most notably Hizbullah in Lebanon. Meanwhile, on the global stage, its nuclear program has positioned Iran as an adversary of the West, and as a result the country faces heavy economic sanctions. In the second episode of the Re:Order series, Mark Leonard welcomes Nasser Hadian, professor of political science at the University of Tehran, where he...