Episodes
In part three of our national debt masterclass, we share a simple debt dynamics formula we can monitor to help guide our investment choices.
Topics covered include:How much has the national debt grown over the past fifties years, and what are the underlying driversHow the budget deficit, interest rates, and economic growth determine the level and growth in the national debtUnder what circumstances will the U.S. default on its debtHow should we invest to protect ourselves from the...
Published 05/22/24
In part two of this national debt series, we explore how households and businesses, including commercial banks, can choose not to participate in what some call a national debt ponzi scheme. We also look at how central banks and federal governments monetize the national debt using quantitative easing.
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Published 05/15/24
In part one of this three part series, we consider why a country that issues debt in its own currency can't default unless it chooses to. We also explore how central banks can control interest rates on the national debt. We also consider whether it is possible for government borrowing to crowd out the private sector.
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Published 05/08/24
There is no podcast episode this week, but we have a live webinar on stock market investing this Friday, May 3, 2024 at 11:00AM Pacific time. You can learn more and sign up at Assetcamp.com/webinar.
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Published 05/01/24
Why global small-cap stocks have underperformed large-cap stocks and will the trend continue? The investment case for allocating to global small caps.
Topics covered include:How have small caps performed relative to large caps over the past two decadesWhat factors contributed to the underperformanceHow quality is an important factor to consider when investing in small capsWhat are the earnings prospects for small-cap stocksWhy small-cap stocks could deliver double-digit returns over the...
Published 04/24/24
It is not normal to want prices to rise and currencies to lose their purchasing power. We look at the advantages of stable currencies and prices.
Topics covered include:What's more normal, an inflationary or deflationary mindset?Why it is more normal for prices to fall due to productivity increasesHow central banks seek to overcome productivity-induced deflation by increasing the money supplyHow inflation and ongoing currency debasement encourage debt, the financialization of housing, and...
Published 04/17/24
Some analysts suggest that now is an incredibly attractive entry point to invest in emerging market bonds. We look at how to do this and whether you should.
Topics covered include:How emerging markets bonds have performed relative to U.S. bondsHow frequently have emerging markets bonds defaultedWhat is the difference between local currency and U.S. dollar-denominated emerging markets bondsWhy emerging markets nations are reformingWhat are the ways to invest in emerging markets bonds and what...
Published 04/10/24
In this conversation with financial advisor Josh Jalinski, David shares his views on constructing and benchmarking portfolios, factor investing including growth versus value, and managing regret. We explore a number of asset classes and strategies including dividend investing, leveraged loans, closed-end funds, equity REITs, and China. We also discuss how to manage retirement assets.
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Published 04/03/24
Why most households are in better financial shape than prior to the pandemic, but remain frustrated at their lack of economic progress.
Topics covered include:How consumer sentiment surveys are designed and their current findings.Reasons behind consumer frustration with increasing prices amidst declining inflation rates.The magnitude of the inflation shock and its underlying causes.The concept of reference prices and their significant role in shaping consumer sentiment.Factors contributing...
Published 03/27/24
How to use covered call and buy-write strategies to generate income while understanding the risks and having realistic return expectations.
Topics covered include:How covered call strategies workHow much can you earn investing in covered call strategiesWhat are some numerical examples based on current option pricesHow covered call strategies can be used for both stock and bond ETFsWhat are some covered call ETF examples
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Published 03/20/24
A primer on how the economic engine works through coordination between savers, investors, consumers, producers, governments and banks. How hoarding and unfair competition can lead to economic distortions.
Topics covered include:How spending and saving are connected including the paradox of thriftHow borrowing money can lead to higher income and savings and potentially to bubblesHow hoarding differs from investing and why too much hoarding can deprive businesses of capitalHow lightbulbs,...
Published 03/13/24
Berkshire Hathaway doesn't pay a dividend, its cash pile keeps growing, and Buffet says it's gotten too big to make acquisitions that can impact the company. Meanwhile, utility ETFs have a steady 3.5% dividend yield. Which will be the better-performing investment going forward?
Topics covered include:How has Berkshire Hathaway performed relative to the S&P 500 Index and other active managersWhy Warren Buffett believes Berkshire's electric utility holdings were a mistakeWhy California has...
Published 03/06/24
Japan's stock market recently exceeded the all-time high first set in December 1989. That's 34 years of zero price appreciation for the stock market. What drove this lackluster performance, will it continue, and what can we learn from it?
Topics covered include:How big was Japan's stock bubble, and how much did it contribute to the stock market's underperformance over the past three decadesHow do Japan's demographic trends impact its economic challenges, and what are the solutionsWhy Japan's...
Published 02/28/24
How the ETF market is changing, why ETFs should be your preferred investment vehicle, and how to analyze ETFs to generate better investment performance.
Topics covered include:How large have fund flows been away from active mutual funds into ETFsHow big are the largest ETF families and how has their market share grownWhy the rise of active ETFs blurs the distinction between active and passive investingWhy there doesn't appear to be an indexing price bubble, but the rise of passive investing...
Published 02/21/24
Stocks that grow their dividends have outperformed non-dividend-paying stocks over the long-term, but not in the past 5, 10, and 20 years. Why are non-dividend paying stocks outperforming dividend growers, and will it continue?
Topics covered include:What message do companies say when they initiate, grow, or cut their dividendWhat is dividend smoothingHow have dividend payers performed relative to non-dividend payersWhy have non-dividend payers, which are primarily growth stocks,...
Published 02/14/24
Humans are wired to feel regret. Here's how to learn from financial regret to become a better investor.
Topics covered include:What cognitive biases make feelings of financial regret unavoidableWe analyze two regret case studies - one from David and one from a Plus memberWhy do we avoid big regrets but manage through small onesFive cognitive tricks to help manage financial regrets
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Published 02/07/24
Professional investors and other market participants are lousy at forecasting interest rates. Here are three more options to lock in higher yields today.
Topics covered include:The risk of buying long-term bonds and ETFs to benefit from falling yieldsHow volatility drag has impacted a long-term bond ETF like TLTWhy interest rates won't go up just because the government issues more bondsHow CDs, fixed annuities, and zero-coupon bonds workWe compare and contrast the seven fixed-income options...
Published 01/31/24
With cash yields expected to fall, here's how you can keep your portfolio income elevated by purchasing longer-term individual bonds and bullet ETFs
Topics covered include:How future short-term interest rates, inflation expectations, and term premiums impact long-term interest ratesHow each of those rate drivers contributed to the close to 1% drop in interest rates in the past three monthsHow yield to maturity is our guide to locking in a fixed return using individual bonds or bullet ETFsHow...
Published 01/24/24
We explore reasons for buying Bitcoin using one of the new Bitcoin ETFs. We also consider the risks.
Topics covered include:Why the SEC finally decided to approve spot Bitcoin ETFsWhat are the fees and structure of these new Bitcoin ETFsHow Bitcoin is similar and different from the fiat money systemWhere Bitcoin fits in an investment portfolio
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Published 01/17/24
The intricate dance between profession, risk, lifestyle, and luck in determining how net worth grows.
Topics covered include:The various factors that shape the growth of net worth, including professional choices, risk tolerance, and lifestyle decisions.David Stein's personal account of how these elements influenced the trajectory of his financial growth.Insights into the range of net worth increases observed in 2023, driven by the performance of financial markets.The importance of focusing...
Published 01/10/24
The pros and cons of investing your retirement assets 100% in equity, including half in international stocks. Why the 4% spending rule is too aggressive.Why historical asset class return studies that use only U.S. data are biasedHow researchers build a broader database to study retirement outcomes and spending ratesHow a 100% stock portfolio performed compared to balanced portfolios and target date fundsWhy investors should have half their assets in international stocksWhy a 4% spending rule...
Published 01/03/24
We close out 2023 by answering your questions on active vs passive management, market timing, investing for status, what we learned from Charlie Munger, thoughts on a coming recession, worst investment mistakes, recent books that changed us, and more.
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Published 12/13/23
Do the impressive returns in public and private markets stem from strategic financial engineering or reflect actual economic growth?How corporate profit growth is linked to economic growth, even though corporate profits are more volatileHow interest rates, tax rates, and stock buybacks influence corporate profits and stock returnsWhy there are fewer publicly traded stocksHow the increase in leveraged buyouts has impacted the economyHow private equity funds use financial engineering to boost...
Published 12/06/23
One year after the release of ChatGPT, we explore the positive and negative paths AI could take and what individuals can do to assist with a positive outcome.
Topics covered include:How David uses AI to increase his personal productivityThe societal and economic impacts of AI, including its potential to enhance corporate profitability and individual productivityChanges at OpenAI's executive level are examined, highlighting a shift in the organization's direction and philosophyWhat is...
Published 11/29/23
In this bonus episode, David visits with Bill Yount and Becky Heptig of the Catching Up to Fi podcast in a wide-ranging discussion on investing using a systematic checklist approach.
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Published 11/22/23