I joined Peter Clarke and Margo Kingston on their Transitzone podcast. Here's their own description of our discussion. _________________________________________________ This last week of the election campaign has seen Donald Trump become even more overheated in his rhetoric. His fixation on...

Here I discuss a speech made by Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the RBA on how little forecasters know and how much humbler we should all be. I focus on what he didn't say, which is that the best way to tackle hubris and improve forecasting is to run open forecasting tournaments. Only then can...