Iran’s proxy network in Iraq has escalated rocket attacks, stood up at least four new Shi’a militia groups, and diversified its targets and methods of attack. These efforts aim to wear down US forces and eventually compel their withdrawal from Iraq. In this episode of Overwatch, Middle East Security Program Manager Nicholas Heras and Iraq Research Assistant Katherine Lawlor discuss Iran’s ongoing campaign to shape Iraq into a state that serves Iran’s geopolitical interests.

ISW Middle East Portfolio Manager Nicholas Heras joins Iraq Team Analysts Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace to discuss the ongoing escalation of violence by Iranian proxy groups. Even after the assassinations of Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, these proxy groups have maintained pressure on US forces in Iraq by cooperating and coordinating with each other.

The U.S. killed Iranian Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike on 03 JAN. This follows a proxy attack on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, the killing of an American contractor, and a months-long escalation in rocket attacks on U.S. interests in Iraq and across the Middle East. Iran experts Nicholas Carl and Kyra Rauschenbach of AEI’s Critical Threats Project and Iraq experts Brandon Wallace and Katherine Lawlor of ISW brief what you need to know to make sense of the coming news...

Iraq's PM resigned on November 29 following renewed violence against protesters and loss of religious support. Political elites have failed to achieve consensus on a new PM or electoral reforms,. Meanwhile, Iran's proxies in Iraq continue to attack protesters, Sadr and his supporters, and the U.S.-led Coalition to drive political action in Iran's favor. ISW's experts Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace brief their observations of the political and proxy conflicts and what they expect moving...

U.S. President Donald Trump met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Turkey's ongoing offensive in Northeastern Syria on November 13th. The meeting occurred as fighting continues in Eastern Syria. ISW Syria expert John Dunford discusses the events in Syria and abroad that shaped the two presidents' conversation and its subsequent outcome. 

Protests in Iraq have continued to grow after resuming on October 25th. Iranian proxy leader Hadi al Ameri reversed his position on the ousting of the Iraqi prime minister under the direction the Iranian IRGC Quds Force commander. This direct intervention by Iran signals the potential for a more violent Iranian crackdown against Iraqi protesters. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses three possible trajectories for Iraq's future. *Originally published November 7, 2019. 

The deadline to implement the first phase of the Russo-Turkish deal for Northeast Syria passed without significant progress after Kurdish forces refused to withdraw from the border. A new contingent of US forces deployed to southeast Syria to secure oil fields. US forces also patrolled a Kurdish area, indicating a continued relationship with the SDF. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Syria expert John Dunford explain these details and discuss what to expect next. *Published...

Rumors of an imminent resignation of the Iraqi prime minister emerges after nationalist Shi'a cleric Muqtada al Sadr made a dramatic return to Iraq and joined escalating protests in Najaf. He and Iranian proxy leader Hadi Al Ameri each released statements pledging to hold a no-confidence vote against the prime minister in the Iraqi parliament. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses the political stakes and possibilities. *Originally published October 29, 2019. 

Protests resumed in Baghdad and across the provinces in southern Iraq despite the Iraqi government's attempts to de-escalate through concessions and limited reforms. Protesters torched political offices and media headquarters, chanting slogans against both the Iraqi government and Iran's proxies in Iraq. One Iranian proxy militia reportedly used live fire against protesters. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Iraq expert Samantha Leathley discuss the escalation. *Published October...

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met to coordinate military movements in Northern Syria. The two presidents reached an initial agreement intended to push Kurdish forces away from the Turkey-Syria border region over the coming days. ISW Syria expert John Dunford discusses what is known about the new deal and how it will effect Turkish and Russian actions in Syria moving forward. *Originally published October 23, 2019. 

Iraq's government has not addressed the conditions that prompted street protests in early October 2019. Baghdad will also struggle to hold accountable the forces that engaged in a violent crackdown on protesters given Iran's role in Iraq. The stage now appears set for a new phase of unrest. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and ISW Iraq analyst Samantha Leathley discuss the potential for renewed protests this week. *Originally published October 21, 2019. 

The U.S. military withdrawal from Syria and subsequent Turkish advances are creating a new opening for Russia and its partners. Russian forces have taken over areas vacated by the U.S. as the Kremlin positions itself to reshape Syria's future. ISW Research analyst Mason Clark joins ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella to discuss the latest Russian maneuvers and how they advance Vladimir Putin's broader ambitions in Syria. *Originally published October 16, 2019. 

The situation on the ground is rapidly evolving as the Turkish offensive advances into Syria. ISIS is taking advantage of the conditions of chaos to resurge and threaten to reverse progress made by the Anti-ISIS Coalition. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella, Syria expert John Dunford, and Counterterrorism expert Brandon Wallace discuss how recent developments may threaten U.S. forces as they withdraw and what ISW is watching heading into the week. *Originally published October 15, 2019. 

Turkey has initiated a military operation into Northern Syria. The operation follows a U.S. decision to withdrawal from the immediate area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - the primary Syria-based U.S. partner in the campaign against ISIS. As Turkish forces move across the border and the SDF responds, ISW's Syria expert John Dunford explains the context, key dynamics shaping the battle, and the effects on the counter-ISIS campaign. *Originally published October 9, 2019.

The leader of Iran's Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) stated that it intends to provide security for the Arbae'en pilgrimage, signaling that Iran my deploy this force to Iraq. The LEF helped the Assad regime attempt to suppress the Syrian rebellion. Iran has used it to quell dementing protests, and the unit may assist Iran's proxies in Iraq to do the same. Critical Threats Project Iran expert Nicholas Carl discusses this possibility with ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella. *Published...

The Iraqi prime minister's concessions to protesters reflects one aspect of the ongoing crisis, but it is only a part of the story. There remains an ongoing competition for the future of Iraq. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and the Critical Threats Project's Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl to discuss the Iraqi government's recent actions, what the information environment tells us about the situation, and how Iran is positioning its proxies as it vies for greater control. *Published...

Turkey is about to invade Northeastern Syria with U.S. permission despite previous American security guarantees to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The U.S. has not yet announced a full withdrawal from Syria but U.S. forces pulled back from the border. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Syria expert John Dunford discuss what options the SDF has and how other actors, including ISIS and Iran, are prepared to exploit the possible chaos to follow. *Originally published October 7, 2019. 

The crisis in Iraq continues to escalate. Multiple reports of assassinations and other targeted killings of activists and demonstrators reflect an attempt to suppress the protests through intimidation, likely by Iran's proxies. It remains unclear whether a reshuffle in the political leadership in Baghdad would ameliorate protest demands, however. ISW's Iraq expert Samantha Leathley joins Jennifer Cafarella to discuss developments on the ground and what ISW is watching for next. *Published...

Iraqi protesters have defied a government curfew in Baghdad, triggering renewed clashes with security forces. The death toll is now at 19 with hundreds wounded. The internet remains severed as the Iraqi government tries to disrupt the protest momentum and minimize reports of civilian casualties. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and CTP Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl discuss what has transpired in the last 12 hours and what to watch for next. *Originally published October 2, 2019. 

This update addresses the political dynamics that have lead to recent mass protests against the Iraqi government. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella zooms out to discuss how key actors, domestic political competition, and Iranian influence over the last several years has shaped the current crisis. *Originally published October 3, 2019. 

A major crisis is unfolding in Iraq. Protests against the Iraqi government have spread to 11 predominantly Shi'a provinces and become violent. Government forces have used live ammunition against protestors in multiple provinces and are fighting with protestors to secure the Baghdad airport. ISW is providing an update on the situation as of 8pm this evening and outlining the possible trajectories for further escalation. *Originally published on October 2, 2019.

The second round of Iraqi protests is entering its third week. ISW's Director of Innovation and Tradecraft Ketti Davison recaps how we got here and discusses the possibility for prolonged instability due to an emerging violent cycle of the protester movement .